IHME Model Lowers U.S. Coronavirus Death Projections

[mystery-ak]

Michael Patrick Leahy 6 Apr 2020

On Monday the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections of coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 4 to 81,776, down more than ten percent from the 93,765 projected on April 1, as Breitbart News reported on Wednesday.

Notably, the model also lowered projections of the number of states that will not have enough regular or ICU hospital beds to admit all identified coronavirus patients at the peak in their states from 37  in the April 1 projection to 20 in Monday’s projections.

Tennessee is one of the states in which IHME lowered projections for deaths and hospital capacity dramatically.

On Friday, the IHME model projected 93,531 coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 4, including more than 3,000 in the Volunteer State. The model also projected Tennessee would not have sufficient hospital capacity on the peak date of April 19. But on Monday, the model lowered the death projections in the state to 587 and projected the state would have more than enough hospital capacity on a new peak date of April 15.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections/

[Formerly Once-Ler]

I always take breitbart with a hand full of salt.  It is both frightening that 80k is a best case scenario and comforting that they too finally recognize the danger and huge number of fatalities we face.

[Smokin Joe]

I always take breitbart with a hand full of salt.  It is both frightening that 80k is a best case scenario and comforting that they too finally recognize the danger and huge number of fatalities we face.

Okay, then look at the IHME projections, themselves. COmpare them to your State. They are insanely high for mine compared to actual numbers. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Okay, then look at the IHME projections, themselves. COmpare them to your State. They are insanely high for mine compared to actual numbers. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I guess breitbart must be fear mongering COVID-19 to score points against my President. 

[Smokin Joe]

I guess breitbart must be fear mongering COVID-19 to score points against my President.

Currently they show a cumulative number of fatalities, adding the numbers (solid line on their graph) of daily deaths that is 7 times the number who have died in my state. I have contacted them and pointed out the discrepancy, with sources so they can verify my assertion. We will see if they correct it.

I recommend anyone check those numbers against your State's Dept of Health website of other sources. We really don't need unnecessary panic. This is bad enough without inflating the effects.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Currently they show a cumulative number of fatalities, adding the numbers (solid line on their graph) of daily deaths that is 7 times the number who have died in my state. I have contacted them and pointed out the discrepancy, with sources so they can verify my assertion. We will see if they correct it.

I recommend anyone check those numbers against your State's Dept of Health website of other sources. We really don't need unnecessary panic. This is bad enough without inflating the effects.

@Smokin Joe You almost got me to click on a link to breitbart.  I'm willing to concede their numbers are fictitious without investigation due to past investigations of their journalism.  I trust them less than the MSM.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe You almost got me to click on a link to breitbart.  I'm willing to concede their numbers are fictitious without investigation due to past investigations of their journalism.  I trust them less than the MSM.

Just check the IHME website directly, then

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-dakota

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Just check the IHME website directly, then

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-dakota

They look a little anxious to add deaths to ND but their national figures are pretty close.  Was there something else I should see?

[Smokin Joe]

They look a little anxious to add deaths to ND but their national figures are pretty close.  Was there something else I should see?

Check their state figures against your state's figures and see if your state's stats are inflated, too.

Claiming 29 vs 4 actual? Really?
Do that 50 times over and add another 1250 to the body count.
I just gave you thei link so you could check without soiling your little cursor going to breitbart.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

I just gave you thei link so you could check without soiling your little cursor going to breitbart.

Hey, I really appreciate that.   

Wisconsin Projected deaths for today on
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/wisconsin                      96
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/                                     92

Not really far off.

[mountaineer]

Med prof: There are ‘major problems’ with current coronavirus mortality estimates
Addison Smith
April 3, 2020

As coronavirus hysteria dominates the globe, scientists and health experts and professors have taken to major news outlets citing shocking data and grim projections to stress the disease’s purported severity. But some academics and medical experts believe that the threat of the disease is being wildly overblown based on what we know about it so far.

Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, told The College Fix that there are “at least two major problems with current estimates of the COVID-19 mortality rate,” and that the estimated death rate is likely far too high. ...

“Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others,” the professors wrote. They argued that preliminary data indicate a possible fatality rate as low as 0.06 percent.

In his interview with The College Fix, Bhattacharya outlined why the widespread estimates of that rate are likely very flawed.

“First, they are based upon a testing technology that registers as positive if the virus is present and negative if not. Patients who are infected and recover are not counted. The second problem is that the set of people who are tested tend to be people who are relatively advanced in the course of disease,” he said. ...

More at The College Fix

[Bigun]

I'm wondering who it was that insisted on this IHME model being the standard?  I'm sure it couldn't have been the good Dr. Fauci or Dr. Blix perhaps.