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Online mystery-ak

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BREAKING NEWS: Dr. Fauci warns the coronavirus death toll in the U.S. could top 100,000 and millions of people could become infected

    Dr Anthony Fauci, the country's top infectious disease expert, estimated the U.S. could see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths
    On CNN's 'State of the Union' he said he did not want to be held to that number because the pandemic is 'such a moving target'
    As of Sunday morning, there were more than 123,000 positive cases, and more than 2,100 deaths in the U.S
    Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

By Associated Press and Dailymail.com Reporter

Published: 10:11 EDT, 29 March 2020 | Updated: 10:35 EDT, 29 March 2020


The U.S. government's foremost infection disease expert says the United States could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, speaking on CNN's 'State of the Union' on Sunday, offered his prognosis as the federal government weighs rolling back guidelines on social distancing.

'I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,' he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. 'We're going to have millions of cases.' But he added 'I don't want to be held to that' because the pandemic is 'such a moving target.'

As of Sunday morning, there were more than 123,000 positive cases, and more than 2,100 deaths in the U.S. 

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165019/Fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-US-100-000.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR3MbFPd3PyIKWReNl9pZPgDyBdXOjgI07gJzqYpvz7wZMuCVQyRwPoUVGU
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Online Bigun

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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Bigun

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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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WOW! Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu

Which is it Dr. Fauci? You seem a bit confused.

@Bigun
Do you suppose it is at all possible, that it is you who are confused by the Putin promoted click bait you consume?

Online Bigun

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Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.  March 26, 2020

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Bigun

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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline The_Reader_David

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WOW! Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu



Why "WOW!"?  It's always been clear that the coronavirus mortality rate would comparable to a very bad flu.  The question has always been, which very bad flu?  2009? 1968? 1957? 1918?  The last of those took out 2.8% of humanity at the time.  Not 2.8% of identified cases, not 2.8% of those infected (with then number pushed up from identified cases by some sort of epidemiological modeling the way we do with seasonal flu), 2.8% of everyone alive at the time.  The whole point of all we're going through now is precisely because it may be as bad as a very bad flu:  the one that hit in 1918.
And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know what this was all about.

Online Bigun

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Why "WOW!"?  It's always been clear that the coronavirus mortality rate would comparable to a very bad flu.  The question has always been, which very bad flu?  2009? 1968? 1957? 1918?  The last of those took out 2.8% of humanity at the time.  Not 2.8% of identified cases, not 2.8% of those infected (with then number pushed up from identified cases by some sort of epidemiological modeling the way we do with seasonal flu), 2.8% of everyone alive at the time.  The whole point of all we're going through now is precisely because it may be as bad as a very bad flu:  the one that hit in 1918.

Are you aware that the 1918 Flu was a SARS type virus that came along over 100 years ago now! Supposedly, medical science has advanced quite a bit since then.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online libertybele

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US will see 100,000 to 200,000 coronavirus deaths and millions of cases, Fauci predicts

It is difficult to compare to the flu because the projections for the coronavirus cases is vague -- millions doesn't really specifiy.  What is alarming is that the projections indicate that the virus death toll at minimum is almost 10 times the number of deaths from the flu for this season.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been 29 million influenza cases in the United States in the 2019-20 season.

According to the latest FluView data, there have been 280,000 hospitalizations for influenza recorded as of February 15, 2020. This figure is consistent with hospitalization rates at this point in time during recent seasons; however, hospitalization rates among children and young adults are considered higher than in recent seasons.

The CDC also indicates that mortality related to pneumonia and influenza has been low during this respiratory virus season. So far, there have been 16,000 flu-related deaths documented during the US influenza season. Of these, there have been 105 influenza-associated deaths among children.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/us-flu-cases-reach-29-million-have-we-hit-peak-season
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:23:33 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline The_Reader_David

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Are you aware that the 1918 Flu was a SARS type virus that came along over 100 years ago now! Supposedly, medical science has advanced quite a bit since then.

No, I (along with the CDC and a lot of molecular biologists whose work you can find online with very little bother) am aware that the 1918 Flu was a particularly virulent strain if influenza A (H1N1), which happened to be much deadlier than more recent H1N1 strains both by virtue of less developed medical response and by virtue of it greater virulence.
And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know what this was all about.

Online libertybele

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What is troubling and questionable is why the infection and fatality rate is projected to be so much higher here than in China and even Italy??

Obviously China's population is much higher.  They have reported a little over 80,000 cases with appx. 3500 deaths.



Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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We Were Wrong: So Sorry that We Ruined Your Life
Quite possibly the most useless, pointless, and meandering thing I've read since my last post.


https://twitter.com/OnceLer57351614/status/1244252096985280514

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Once-Ler @OnceLer57351614
I'm sorry I ruined America.  Thank you @HoarseWisperer for pinpointing the real bad guys.
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Hey, tip o’ the hat to the people who stayed home or voted third-party “on principle” in 2016 rather than vote for the email lady.

Nice job.
8:16 AM · Mar 29, 2020

@Bigun you're a tenacious man with great intentions.  I admire your strength of will, and your outspokenness.  We disagree on Dr.Fauci.  I think he is awesome sauce and I believe he is telling me what he believes is the truth.  We are in big big trouble, and President Trump better pray that American voters think Biden will ignore a great reason to spend money, unless Trump is also a Limbaugh-fiscal conservative.

« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:55:25 pm by Once-Ler »

Offline musiclady

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1918 Spanish Flu Shows Why Social Distancing Works

We are doing what we're doing now because of what has been learned from the past.

Social distancing is not some big government conspiracy against Trump or some fear mongering nonsense.  It works.

Philadelphia ignored the warnings in 1918.  St. Louis did not.

New York ignored the warnings in 2020.  Ohio did not.
Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline musiclady

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What is troubling and questionable is why the infection and fatality rate is projected to be so much higher here than in China and even Italy??

Obviously China's population is much higher.  They have reported a little over 80,000 cases with appx. 3500 deaths.

The answer regarding China is that they lie.  Those numbers aren't correct. Period.

Also, the virus seeded here and developed over a longer period of time, so the outbreaks are across a broad area.

We are just entering the worst of this, and the numbers will rise in the next few weeks, but because of the intelligence of the majority of the Americans and the calm, reasoned observance of what the medical community is begging us to do, the numbers will not be as great as they might have been.
Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Online libertybele

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Quite possibly the most useless, pointless, and meandering thing I've read since my last post.


https://twitter.com/OnceLer57351614/status/1244252096985280514
8:16 AM · Mar 29, 2020

@Bigun you're a tenacious man with great intentions.  I admire your strength of will, and your outspokenness.  We disagree on Dr.Fauci.  I think he is awesome sauce and I believe he is telling me what he believes is the truth.  We are in big big trouble, and President Trump better pray that American voters think Biden will ignore a great reason to spend money, unless he's a Limbaugh-fiscal conservative.

I agree, that this country is in trouble because of this virus. I think Dr. Fauci's numbers are conservative.  Do the simple math.  Taking FL for an example.  We have roughly 21 million people.  Even if only 1% of that population becomes ill, there aren't enough beds, ventilators, nor staff to treat those infected.

Florida currently has approximately   (186 hospitals reporting)     4,787 ICU beds    1,940 Spec ICU beds    42,039 accute care beds    56,039 total beds 

If we break those number down even further, in my county we have over 735,000 people and appx. 3,250 beds (I couldn't find stats on ICU beds).

I'd say this country is in trouble  4 hospitals have been swiftly erected in NY and Cumo has asked for more hospitals and an additional 140,000 beds to the 53,000 that they already have.  So that's roughly 200,000 beds just for NY.  Ventilators?  Masks?  Gowns?  Gloves?  Respirators?   

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/hospitals/covid-19-could-fill-hospital-beds-how-many-are-there
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 05:02:24 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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I agree, that this country is in trouble because of this virus. I think Dr. Fauci's numbers are conservative.  Do the simple math.  Taking FL for an example.  We have roughly 21 million people.  Even if only 1% of that population becomes ill, there aren't enough beds, ventilators, nor staff to treat those infected.

Florida currently has approximately   (186 hospitals reporting)     4,787 ICU beds    1,940 Spec ICU beds    42,039 accute care beds    56,039 total beds 

If we break those number down even further, in my county we have over 735,000 people and appx. 3,250 beds (I couldn't find stats on ICU beds).

I'd say this country is in trouble  4 hospitals have been swiftly erected in NY and Cumo has asked for more hospitals and an additional 140,000 beds to the 53,000 that they already have.  So that's roughly 200,000 beds just for NY.  Ventilators?  Masks?  Gowns?  Gloves?  Respirators?   

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/hospitals/covid-19-could-fill-hospital-beds-how-many-are-there
goopo
That's what I'm seeing too @libertybele and I'm going to read your mind and assert this is "NOT what you want despite who the dead, and sick, voted for, or who they blame, and you wouldn't wish this on anyone who politically disagreed with you no matter what slur they inflicted upon you."  I'm also sensing you wouldn't minimize the deaths of American's because you had invested heavily in an ideology.  Me too.   

Offline jafo2010

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We have 2,500 deaths from this scourge.  After three months, I do not see how we get to 100,000, let alone 200,000.

Let me be precise.  I do not trust Dr. Fauci.  Why?  Because he is so typical.  Dr William Frieden predicted that Africa would have 1.2 million deaths from ebola in 2014.  They had 11,323 deaths 2014-2016. Africa did not have the quality of facilities equal to the worst hospital in the USA. 

Dr Fauci is no different than Dr Frieden in their approach to forecasting casualties. 

At this present moment, we have doctors going off label with medications to fight this dreaded disease.  And we are having success with that.  All of us have seen multiple people who indicated they were on the verge of death, and took this drug or that, and their life was saved.  As more and more doctors gain further knowledge in using these drugs, the fight against this virus strengthens.  And with warmer temperatures, it begins to decline within the USA.

When this kicked off, I indicated this virus would result in 40,000 - 60,000 deaths in the USA.  At this point, I think that number may well be less.  And with the protocols established for fighting this disease, and the effort to flatten the peak with the draconian measures adopted to date, we get to a place where the threat is reduced sufficiently to resume normal living.  Yes, there will be changes.  Hand washing by all will make a difference into the future.  Distancing will not end with the end of this virus, I expect a large element of the population to continue with distancing no matter what.

And if our leaders are worth a good BM, we end much of what we are doing with China.  China is a rogue nation, and they have had multiple diseases that have killed millions in the world and have never answered for it to date.  That changes with this outbreak.

The Chinese Communist government covered this up for weeks because I believe it was released from their bio weapons lab in Wuhan.  They thought they could contain it, and cover up the outbreak.  It got away from them.  They have told their people that it was the USA military that unleashed a bio weapon on them.  Russia is reporting the same story to their sheep.  This is dangerous what they are doing.  All the more reason to greatly scale back interaction with China.  I say do what is necessary to end their theft of intellectual property.  Why we have tolerated that all these years never made sense to me.  Again, there is no place for this rogue nation in the world today.