Author Topic: How Medical ‘Chickenpox Parties’ Could Turn The Tide Of The Wuhan Virus  (Read 357 times)

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Offline Once-Ler

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https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/how-medical-chickenpox-parties-could-turn-the-tide-of-the-wuhan-virus/

Quote
What Is Controlled Volutary Infection?

CVI involves allowing people at low risk for severe complications to deliberately contract COVID-19 in a socially and medically responsible way so they become immune to the disease. People who are immune cannot pass on the disease to others.

If CVI were to become widespread and successful, it could be a powerful tool for both suppressing the Wuhan coronavirus and saving the economy. It could reduce the danger of passing COVID-19 to vulnerable populations, drastically reduce the amount of social isolation needed, reopen businesses, and even help achieve the level of “herd immunity” needed to stop the spread of the disease within the population.

Herd immunity, of course, is the phenomenon whereby contagious infections can no longer spread if a large enough percentage of the population is immune to the disease, and CVI is a means to achieve it. Many over the age of 60 might remember an interesting historical precedent for CVI: chickenpox parties.

Before vaccinations for childhood diseases such as chickenpox and German measles were developed, families would hold chickenpox or German measles “parties” when one child contracted the disease. All the neighborhood children were invited to play with the infected child with the understanding that they would probably become infected as a result. The entire community would get the disease out of the way in one little local epidemic. Since many childhood diseases are far more severe if contracted as an adult, voluntary infection minimized the potential for future adverse consequences.

More at link...

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Offline Smokin Joe

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How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
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Offline roamer_1

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@roamer_1 Ping!

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That's right. If there ain't no avoiding it, might as well get it over with.

 :beer:

Offline Smokin Joe

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@Smokin Joe
That's right. If there ain't no avoiding it, might as well get it over with.

 :beer:
I'm not against the idea, but I'll put it this way. Let the low risk groups become exposed, while the high risk groups are exposed in a more limited fashion, more slowly. That way, facilities need not be overtaxed, and the economy can keep going, even if in "limp" mode.
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Offline roamer_1

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I'm not against the idea, but I'll put it this way. Let the low risk groups become exposed, while the high risk groups are exposed in a more limited fashion, more slowly. That way, facilities need not be overtaxed, and the economy can keep going, even if in "limp" mode.

I see that different. Sequester those that are at risk - JUST like you would for any serious flu.
That is doable, controllable.

The rest is opportunity. It's all about logistics, so make it happen.
Facilities need not be overtaxed if one meets the logistical need.
That is where the focus should be.
Crankin it up, not shutting it down.
Exactly bass ackwards.

Offline Neverdul

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Quote
Before vaccinations for childhood diseases such as chickenpox and German measles were developed, families would hold chickenpox or German measles “parties” when one child contracted the disease. All the neighborhood children were invited to play with the infected child with the understanding that they would probably become infected as a result. The entire community would get the disease out of the way in one little local epidemic. Since many childhood diseases are far more severe if contracted as an adult, voluntary infection minimized the potential for future adverse consequences.

Where to begin.  **nononono*

The idea of having chickenpox or measles parties was a stupid idea before vaccinations and even more stupid now that we have vaccinations, but prior to vaccinations the rationale that it would be better to get those diseases as a child rather than as an adult had some merit but only because a fairly large percentage of adults were immune because they’d had it as a child themselves. Of course with German Measles, the risk to pregnant mothers and their babies (severe birth defects and still births) is still significant.

Not to mention that my youngest niece and her young brother and older sister came down with it in the early 70’s but she became severely ill and almost died after her fever spiked to 104 and had seizures so it (German Measles) is certainly not a benign disease.

So this “Controlled Volutary (sic) Infection” “outside the box” theory of the esteemed dermatologist Dr. Perednia has a great big hole in it as those older and at risk folks are still going to be a risk of contracting it and dying from it because they and no one else has any prior immunity to it.

Read his entire “article” or “blog” in particular the “How Would CVI Work” part. That’s some bat shit (pardon the bat reference) crazy stuff.

Quote
The basic principles are simple:
•   Otherwise-healthy young people who have not yet contracted COVID-19 can enroll in the CVI program at a designated “safe infection” site.
•   After being medically screened, participants are actively exposed to the mildest form of COVID-19 virus available. They are then housed under quarantine in an appropriate CVI facility. The facility could be as small as one’s home or as large as a hotel or cruise ship. (Given the recent example of spring break 2020 for college students in Florida, one could imagine CVI even becoming a social activity.)
•   All participants are then regularly screened for the presence of an active COVID-19 infection and medically monitored during their illness. Patients who experience serious medical complications would be evacuated to an acute care facility. Once a patient reliably tests negative for an active infection, he or she receives a certified clean bill of immunity (CCBI) and is allowed to re-enter the community.
•   A critical component of this program is widespread testing of the general population to determine exactly who has and has not already become immune to coronavirus. Those who have previously been infected and developed immunity would also be given a certified clean bill of immunity.

 22222frying pan


So he wants to round up and medically screen all the young healthy people into a “safe infection” site, give them “the mildest form of COVID-19” (not sure what that is as there are at present only 2 strains and neither much different from the other as I understand) and house them in a facility that could be a hotel or cruise ship (and we know how well that cruise ship thingy went), regularly screen them for active COVID-19 and evacuate those who have serious complications. But those who don’t once they test negative they get a nice certificate for their troubles.

So how long would all these young and otherwise healthy people be housed in this “safe infection site”? 14 days, 30 days? Who runs this and who pays for this? Where does he find the medical staff, the supplies and such which are already in short supply? What if they don’t want to “voluntarily” enroll?

I could go on but this is just too stupid for words.

 :chairbang:


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Offline txradioguy

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Twitter actually went full fascist and removed this article from the Federalist's feed.
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Offline roamer_1

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Where to begin.  **nononono*

So this “Controlled Volutary (sic) Infection” “outside the box” theory of the esteemed dermatologist Dr. Perednia has a great big hole in it as those older and at risk folks are still going to be a risk of contracting it and dying from it because they and no one else has any prior immunity to it.


No, the risk to the elderly, and those *not* having contracted the virus become less at risk as the virus becomes less active. The intersection of those two things is when most people are immune, and the virus has a hard time spreading.

IOW, the same track as now recommended, except over with a helluva lot faster.

EXACTLY the same way viruses ALWAYS go through a population, and die out. It is the general immunity that defeats the bug.

SO either EVERYONE is held in strict sequestration until it has passed, or only the 'at risk' are held sequestered until it has passed. One way will take a year, the other a couple months.

You choose.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Twitter actually went full fascist and removed this article from the Federalist's feed.
Can't be messing up the panic, don'tcha know.
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Offline Neverdul

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No, the risk to the elderly, and those *not* having contracted the virus become less at risk as the virus becomes less active. The intersection of those two things is when most people are immune, and the virus has a hard time spreading.

IOW, the same track as now recommended, except over with a helluva lot faster.

EXACTLY the same way viruses ALWAYS go through a population, and die out. It is the general immunity that defeats the bug.

SO either EVERYONE is held in strict sequestration until it has passed, or only the 'at risk' are held sequestered until it has passed. One way will take a year, the other a couple months.

You choose.

So instead of flattening the curve and keeping the healthcare system from becoming overloaded from a surge, this idiot (and currently unlicensed) dermatologist’s solution is to purposely infect a large group of people, after being “medically screened” presumably to either and or determine if they have already had it or have any previously undiagnosed underlying conditions, and continue to medically monitor them in these “safe infection sites”.

Again, we already don’t have enough COVID-19 tests for this - people who are symptomatic are still being denied testing, the supply of PPE is critically low and so many healthcare workers already being infected themselves to the point that retired doctors and nurses are being asked to come out of retirement and states have been waving or fast tracking licensing requirements. So where does he imagine all the staff and medical supplies needed for his “safe infection sites” is going to come from?

And again what he is stupidly proposing is “voluntary” so I doubt he’d even get enough young and healthy people to volunteer to make enough herd immunity anyway.  And again, the older population and those with underlying health conditions are still going to be at risk. Yes, a lower number of people who can spread the disease helps lower the risk but this cat is already out of the bag.
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Offline Neverdul

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Twitter actually went full fascist and removed this article from the Federalist's feed.

Good! Twitter and Youtube, etc. are not the goverment and have the right to remove any content they want.

They've also removed content proposing that using a hairdryer to the face to heat up you nasal passages to 136 degrees as a "cure" and people promoting getting chloroquine from aquarium supply stores.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 04:27:32 AM by Neverdul »
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Offline roamer_1

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So instead of flattening the curve and keeping the healthcare system from becoming overloaded from a surge, this idiot (and currently unlicensed) dermatologist’s solution is to purposely infect a large group of people, after being “medically screened” presumably to either and or determine if they have already had it or have any previously undiagnosed underlying conditions, and continue to medically monitor them in these “safe infection sites”.

Again, we already don’t have enough COVID-19 tests for this - people who are symptomatic are still being denied testing, the supply of PPE is critically low and so many healthcare workers already being infected themselves to the point that retired doctors and nurses are being asked to come out of retirement and states have been waving or fast tracking licensing requirements. So where does he imagine all the staff and medical supplies needed for his “safe infection sites” is going to come from?

And again what he is stupidly proposing is “voluntary” so I doubt he’d even get enough young and healthy people to volunteer to make enough herd immunity anyway.  And again, the older population and those with underlying health conditions are still going to be at risk. Yes, a lower number of people who can spread the disease helps lower the risk but this cat is already out of the bag.

The cat always WAS out of the bag. Prolonging exposure necessarily multiplies vectors. Grandma's risk is increased the longer she must be sequestered, not diminished. Risk abatement by sequestration lasts only so long before new vectors are introduced from the need to resupply - Exposure is not limited to people as long as the virus is active, and more so as time goes forward until the virus burns out in any given region.

Again the problem is a logistical one, not so much a healthcare one. This is beat by moving assets and supplies to meet the need, not by shutting everything down and creating a fixed and non-distributed resource pool. And the longer it is locked down, the more finite the resources become, which is the exact opposite of what is needed..

Offline Neverdul

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@roamer_1
 
A little number crunching.

US population data from the Census Bureau for 2018.

Children 0-18     75,877,700
 Adults 19-25     28,020,700
 Adults 26-34     39,590,700
 Adults 35-54     81,990,600
 Adults 55-64     41,897,600
 65+        51,121,200
 Total       318,498,500
The total of people aged 0 – 54 is 225,479,700

An estimated 60 percent of all Americans have at least one chronic health condition, and 40 percent have more than one but that data includes the elderly. 

High blood pressure affects nearly one in three adults in the United States, including one-third of adults in their 40s and 50s. More than one in 10 adults have Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, including 17 percent of adults aged 45 to 64. At least 16 million Americans struggle with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Obesity and asthma are also health conditions that factor into an increased risk for mortality from COVID-19.

But let’s say optimistically and factoring in the youngest age ranges that trend healthier, that among that group of 225,479,700 aged 0 -54 - 80% have no underlying health conditions, that would mean 180,383,790 people would have to “voluntarily” enroll in the CVI program at home or at a designated “safe infection” site to be tested, purposely infected, medically monitored and re-tested perhaps multiple times in order to certify their immunity and get their “certificate” under this dermatologist’s cunning plan, and all at the same time in order to expedite his program of attaining herd immunity. And as already pointed out, we are already seeing critical shortages of PPE and medical personnel and are still way short in testing capabilities.

Of course the mortality rate skews higher for the elderly but if we take the lower end estimate of COVID mortality and put it in the range of season flu at .1% (0.001) that would result in 180,384 deaths among those 180,383,790 people voluntarily enrolling in the CVI. At a CFR of only .05% that is still 90,192 deaths. At the high end of an overall CFR of 1% (0.01) it would be 1,803,838 deaths.  So somewhere between 90k to 1m people could die in a matter of weeks if we purposely infect 80% of those age 0 – 54 - all at the same time.

Add to that worldwide, some 5% of all cases are serious/critical and in the US the CDC estimates that around 38% of those between the age 20 – 54 require hospitalization. 38% of the 80% of those age 20 -54 is around 45,479,008 people requiring hospitalization – again, all at the same time.

Here is another thing to consider. My niece is in a household of 8 - 4 children ages 12-13 (the 12 year olds are triplets) a husband and a young adult step son living in her household. But one of her children has asthma and severe allergies and her young adult step son has a congenital heart condition. So they could not do a CVI at home, but if 6 of them were put into a ““safe infection site” in a hotel or cruise ship, who would take care of and provide for the 2 remaining at home? Not to mention her parents, my brother and SIL are in their mid-70’s and have several underlying health conditions so my niece is going to the store and pharmacy for them so they don’t have to expose themselves.

One final thought. We do not yet know enough about the SARS-CoVid-19 virus yet to know for certain if prior infection imparts a lifetime immunity.

One final - final thought – Dr. Douglas A. Perednia is an idiot.
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Offline Once-Ler

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Where to begin.  **nononono*

The idea of having chickenpox or measles parties was a stupid idea before vaccinations and even more stupid now that we have vaccinations, but prior to vaccinations the rationale that it would be better to get those diseases as a child rather than as an adult had some merit but only because a fairly large percentage of adults were immune because they’d had it as a child themselves. Of course with German Measles, the risk to pregnant mothers and their babies (severe birth defects and still births) is still significant.

Not to mention that my youngest niece and her young brother and older sister came down with it in the early 70’s but she became severely ill and almost died after her fever spiked to 104 and had seizures so it (German Measles) is certainly not a benign disease.

So this “Controlled Volutary (sic) Infection” “outside the box” theory of the esteemed dermatologist Dr. Perednia has a great big hole in it as those older and at risk folks are still going to be a risk of contracting it and dying from it because they and no one else has any prior immunity to it.

Read his entire “article” or “blog” in particular the “How Would CVI Work” part. That’s some bat shit (pardon the bat reference) crazy stuff.

 22222frying pan


So he wants to round up and medically screen all the young healthy people into a “safe infection” site, give them “the mildest form of COVID-19” (not sure what that is as there are at present only 2 strains and neither much different from the other as I understand) and house them in a facility that could be a hotel or cruise ship (and we know how well that cruise ship thingy went), regularly screen them for active COVID-19 and evacuate those who have serious complications. But those who don’t once they test negative they get a nice certificate for their troubles.

So how long would all these young and otherwise healthy people be housed in this “safe infection site”? 14 days, 30 days? Who runs this and who pays for this? Where does he find the medical staff, the supplies and such which are already in short supply? What if they don’t want to “voluntarily” enroll?

I could go on but this is just too stupid for words.

 :chairbang:

 goopo
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Offline Once-Ler

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One final - final thought – Dr. Douglas A. Perednia is an idiot.

As Dick Cheney would say "Big Time."
"We know how to bring the economy back to life. What we do not know is how to bring people back to life."

— Nana Akufo-Addo, President of Ghana

#WeAreAllInThisTogether

Offline roamer_1

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@roamer_1
 
A little number crunching.

US population data from the Census Bureau for 2018.

Children 0-18     75,877,700
 Adults 19-25     28,020,700
 Adults 26-34     39,590,700
 Adults 35-54     81,990,600
 Adults 55-64     41,897,600
 65+        51,121,200
 Total       318,498,500
The total of people aged 0 – 54 is 225,479,700

An estimated 60 percent of all Americans have at least one chronic health condition, and 40 percent have more than one but that data includes the elderly. 

High blood pressure affects nearly one in three adults in the United States, including one-third of adults in their 40s and 50s. More than one in 10 adults have Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, including 17 percent of adults aged 45 to 64. At least 16 million Americans struggle with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Obesity and asthma are also health conditions that factor into an increased risk for mortality from COVID-19.

But let’s say optimistically and factoring in the youngest age ranges that trend healthier, that among that group of 225,479,700 aged 0 -54 - 80% have no underlying health conditions, that would mean 180,383,790 people would have to “voluntarily” enroll in the CVI program at home or at a designated “safe infection” site to be tested, purposely infected, medically monitored and re-tested perhaps multiple times in order to certify their immunity and get their “certificate” under this dermatologist’s cunning plan, and all at the same time in order to expedite his program of attaining herd immunity. And as already pointed out, we are already seeing critical shortages of PPE and medical personnel and are still way short in testing capabilities.

Of course the mortality rate skews higher for the elderly but if we take the lower end estimate of COVID mortality and put it in the range of season flu at .1% (0.001) that would result in 180,384 deaths among those 180,383,790 people voluntarily enrolling in the CVI. At a CFR of only .05% that is still 90,192 deaths. At the high end of an overall CFR of 1% (0.01) it would be 1,803,838 deaths.  So somewhere between 90k to 1m people could die in a matter of weeks if we purposely infect 80% of those age 0 – 54 - all at the same time.

Add to that worldwide, some 5% of all cases are serious/critical and in the US the CDC estimates that around 38% of those between the age 20 – 54 require hospitalization. 38% of the 80% of those age 20 -54 is around 45,479,008 people requiring hospitalization – again, all at the same time.

Here is another thing to consider. My niece is in a household of 8 - 4 children ages 12-13 (the 12 year olds are triplets) a husband and a young adult step son living in her household. But one of her children has asthma and severe allergies and her young adult step son has a congenital heart condition. So they could not do a CVI at home, but if 6 of them were put into a ““safe infection site” in a hotel or cruise ship, who would take care of and provide for the 2 remaining at home? Not to mention her parents, my brother and SIL are in their mid-70’s and have several underlying health conditions so my niece is going to the store and pharmacy for them so they don’t have to expose themselves.

One final thought. We do not yet know enough about the SARS-CoVid-19 virus yet to know for certain if prior infection imparts a lifetime immunity.

One final - final thought – Dr. Douglas A. Perednia is an idiot.

No one said 'at the same time'.
No one said 'all at once'.

I don't give a crap for the doctor, nor the concept of self or metered infection.
The idea is right. the sooner the herd is immunized the quicker granny's out of danger, and the faster this whole ordeal is over.

Without martial law. Without shutting the country down. WITHOUT EO 13603

Offline Once-Ler

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Put me down as against introducing more virus as the US death toll gets scarier.  I'm sure I don't speak for all the first responders struggling under the current Pandemic, but I'm really sure I speak for a majority of voters.  While that doesn't make me right, it does mean we ain't doing that for now. 
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Offline roamer_1

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Put me down as against introducing more virus as the US death toll gets scarier.  I'm sure I don't speak for all the first responders struggling under the current Pandemic, but I'm really sure I speak for a majority of voters.  While that doesn't make me right, it does mean we ain't doing that for now.

May your chains rest lightly.

Offline Once-Ler

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May your chains rest lightly.
Gesundheit.
"We know how to bring the economy back to life. What we do not know is how to bring people back to life."

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Offline txradioguy

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Good! Twitter and Youtube, etc. are not the goverment and have the right to remove any content they want.

They've also removed content proposing that using a hairdryer to the face to heat up you nasal passages to 136 degrees as a "cure" and people promoting getting chloroquine from aquarium supply stores.

And yet all the ChiCom propaganda blaming the U.S. remains untouched on all the social media platforms.
The libs/dems of today are the Quislings of former years. The cowards who would vote a fraud into office in exchange for handouts from the devil.

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Offline Once-Ler

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https://www.mediaite.com/news/doctor-who-wrote-op-ed-on-coronavirus-infection-parties-says-federalist-made-unwanted-edits-to-piece/

Doctor Who Wrote Op-Ed on Coronavirus Infection Parties Says Federalist Made Unwanted Edits to Piece
Quote
“Controlled Voluntary Infection Could Help Counter COVID-19 and Revive the Economy,” was the headline of the piece Perednia submitted. The published story had the headline: “How Medical ‘Chickenpox Parties’ Could Turn The Tide Of The Wuhan Virus.”

“The article had footnotes,” the doctor told Mediaite. “And the thing about the measles and chickenpox party, that was a historical footnote. And they put that actually into the text of the article.”

@Neverdul
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— Nana Akufo-Addo, President of Ghana

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Offline Neverdul

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https://www.mediaite.com/news/doctor-who-wrote-op-ed-on-coronavirus-infection-parties-says-federalist-made-unwanted-edits-to-piece/

Doctor Who Wrote Op-Ed on Coronavirus Infection Parties Says Federalist Made Unwanted Edits to Piece
@Neverdul

So the conservative Federalist is pimping FAKE NEWS?  :whistle:


Quote
“Also, just for the record, I never said, suggested, or implied that anyone just go and hold their own ‘coronavirus party.’ Nothing could be further from the truth,” Perednia added in an email.


But I would note that he didn’t back down from his “How Would CVI Work?” plan. It’s the same thing as “chickenpox parties” albeit medically supervised.
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Offline Fishrrman

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The entire premise of the original article is ridiculous and dangerous beyond belief...


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