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Is the economic ruin of millions worth it to save the lives of thousands?  

Yes
4 (22.2%)
No
14 (77.8%)

Total Members Voted: 18

Author Topic: Here's the bottom line  (Read 2859 times)

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Offline Jazzhead

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Here's the bottom line
« on: March 19, 2020, 04:09:56 pm »
This seems to be the bottom line question - what balance do we seek?   
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Online DB

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 04:24:06 pm »
I'd argue that much of that economic loss would happen with or without government's heavy hand. People are people. The run on TP, hand sanitizers, food wasn't caused by government specifically. People not going to restaurants and other places where there are lots of people would have happened anyway. So it is all a matter of degree. Did government make it worse, very likely but it still would have happened.

Offline EdinVA

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 04:26:18 pm »
I am struggling with your premise...
We are not having economic issues because we are saving folks, wall street is having a problem because they are cowards and decided to engage in profit taking and protecting their off-shore billion dollar bonuses rather than staying the course.

« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 04:27:12 pm by EdinVA »

Offline TomSea

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 04:37:06 pm »
I see the premise as faulty too.

Are 30 million people, maybe double, maybe 50 million people in hospital beds using medicines, defibrillators, respirators, nurses, doctors, worth it? Do we have the manpower to deal with this?

It's not just who dies, there's a whole lot more to this.  Yes, older people are dying, those often with special medical conditions, would it be more if the young people were not treated? They are going to ICU too.





So, these others also require medical attention to shrug off and simplify that hey, it's just killing a small percentage of the population. I think people need to understand that.

Offline TomSea

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2020, 12:57:51 am »
That post earlier I wrote about the millions who could be sick at the same time, well, here's the Hoover Institute, maybe only 9 million which would still be a lot. Now, I can't find that figure but this below is an interesting read nonetheless:

Quote

Coronavirus Perspective

by Richard A. Epstein
Monday, March 16, 2020

...

From this available data, it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000 (up about eightfold). In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end. Of course, every life lost is a tragedy—and the potential loss of 50,000 lives world-wide would be appalling—but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies here that should apply in other cases.

These are deeply contrarian estimates. In dealing with any future prediction it is necessary to develop some model. Right now, the overwhelming consensus, based upon the most recent reports, is that the rate of infection will continue to increase so that the most severe interventions are needed to control what will under the worst of circumstances turn into a high rate of death. This pessimistic view is well captured in an op-ed by Nicholas Kristof and Stuart Thompson, who offer this graph to stress the importance and the immediacy of the looming crisis.

Read more at:  https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic

At the same time, Governor Newsom of California is talking about possibly a lot being infected.
Quote
Newsom Projects Over Half of Californians Will Be Infected, Requests $1 Billion in Federal Funds
https://newsthud.com/newsom-projects-over-half-of-californians-will-be-infected-requests-1-billion-in-federal-funds/

So, take everything with a grain salt, just reading what is out there. If Governor Newsom were correct, just California would have 24 million infected, surely this is way too high. This is a real doomsday scenario.

So, estimates are going to be varied.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2020, 08:26:02 am »
Again, the numbers are skewed.

What we don't know: How many have had the virus and only had mild or no symptoms at all.
Why? Because testing has generally been limited to people who are sick, as in sick enough to seek medical care.

Without that number, there can be no reasonable or accurate estimate of mortality, period.

We can identify risk groups from mortality data, in that virtually all (99%) of those who have died have had one or more medical conditions, notably Hypertension, coronary Disease, or Diabetes, and there may be other conditions not talked about like HIV/AIDS, antirejection drugs for transplanted organs, chemotherapy, etc.

While that is no guarantee that the absence of those factors precludes serous medical problems or death, it tends to eliminate those without those risk factors from serious risk of mortality.

We are not getting the whole picture, just a close up of mortality. While scary enough to keep eyes glued to the screen and sell papers, that just isn't good data. Political motivations are suspect as well, especially from a media that has demonstrated the most bias of any in my lifetime.

What we do know is that as jobs disappear from the measures taken to reduce panic, the health insurance for those same people will go the way of the dodo bird. Many of those businesses will not come back from a protracted shutdown. So, not only is there economic risk, the absence of insurance for many may mean they delay health care and actually increase mortality when they might have otherwise sought appropriate care at an earlier date because their insurance would have covered the lion's share of the expenses. People covered under a spouse's plan might not get that care, either.
 
All those put out of work will suffer economic hardship, even if they never meet someone with a COVID 19 infection, as will their dependents.
 
Government stepping in to pay people some sort of compensation for that will inevitably leave people falling through the cracks, increases the national debt (if someone can be found to purchase those instruments of debt--likely the Chinese won't), and only paves the road to a more socialistic model.

What has made this problem worse is the way it has been reported, with an emphasis on a relatively few dead. (I know I'll get gigged as "unfeeling" for that, but really, there are 7,800,000,000 people in the world, and just over 10,000 deaths). By those numbers so far, we'd expect a grand total of deaths from this virus in this state (ND) of 1 (Yes, one, that isn't a misprint or typo).

In the meantime, tens of thousands are out of work out of that same population.
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2020, 10:06:47 am »
I wish there was an I don’t know button.

I see good and bad points for both arguments.  :facepalm2:
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2020, 10:44:06 am »
I wish there was an I don’t know button.

I see good and bad points for both arguments.  :facepalm2:
Yours is probably the most correct answer.
The rest of us are just making educated guesses.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Axeslinger

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2020, 11:15:44 am »
As @TomSea has alluded above and elsewhere...the preoccupation with the death numbers from this virus is folly.  It’s been pretty explicitly stated here and elsewhere:  the REAL danger of this virus is its potential to overwhelm our healthcare system.  When there are no more hospital beds, mask, ventilators, etc, etc...then not only are our healthcare workers in more jeopardy, further exacerbating the problem, but now people will be dying from heart attacks, stroke, infections, broken legs, etc.   There is no way to quantify THAT number.  Or the price that should be paid for that number.

Side note:  Tom, we’ve had our differences in the past, you’ve been excellent on this topic from what I’ve seen.
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2020, 11:18:53 am »
@Axeslinger  I am humbled, thanks.

Offline Jazzhead

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2020, 12:35:52 pm »
 A balance must be struck, and soon.   The messages of social distancing and sanitation are being heard,  but enforcement of social distancing by government is about to turn the economy into a pumpkin, ruining the futures of millions. 

We need to quickly move from a total shutdown to a sensible series of prohibitions on large gatherings that allows more people to return to work.    Businesses should be advised to open if they provide hand sanitizer to all who enter,  and perhaps restrict the total number of people in the establishment.    Say,  allow restaurants to open if they remove a third of their seating capacity and space out the rest.   

I agree with Smokin' Joe that unless a balance is struck,  and soon, the human cost of job losses may overwhelm us.  As the WSJ said this morning,  "No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health.    Even America's resources to fight a viral plague aren't limitless - and they become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty.  America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown."   
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Offline sneakypete

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2020, 02:11:53 pm »
It's not even a fair question,given the untold tens of thousands who will die due to suddenly being out of work and unable to afford to buy both food and medical care.

And hitting those still employed with devastating tax increases so the government will  have the money to provide "free stuff" to SOME of the newly unemployed will make it even worse.

Keep in  mind that providing for the merely unemployed will NOT be a government priority. They will focus on those with this new flue.
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Offline sneakypete

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2020, 02:23:23 pm »
I am struggling with your premise...
We are not having economic issues because we are saving folks, wall street is having a problem because they are cowards and decided to engage in profit taking and protecting their off-shore billion dollar bonuses rather than staying the course.

@EdinVA

Ed,that is just business,as usual, "A typical day on Wall Street".


What this REALLY represents is a HUGE opportunity for the Globalists to use it as a tool to scare the timid (most of the world population) into accepting a World Wide Globalist Government. After all,this is being broadcast all over the world as a problem too big for any government to handle,right?
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Offline sneakypete

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2020, 02:27:36 pm »
That post earlier I wrote about the millions who could be sick at the same time, well, here's the Hoover Institute, maybe only 9 million which would still be a lot. Now, I can't find that figure but this below is an interesting read nonetheless:

At the same time, Governor Newsom of California is talking about possibly a lot being infected.
So, take everything with a grain salt, just reading what is out there. If Governor Newsom were correct, just California would have 24 million infected, surely this is way too high. This is a real doomsday scenario.

So, estimates are going to be varied.

@TomSea

Governor Newsom is the captain of a sinking ship named "The Socialist State of California",and this disease is a gift to him because he sees it as a way to get federal money to bail him out from bankruptcy while providing even more "free stuff" to the homeless,drug addicted,"touchy-feely" voting population that put him into office.

He is claiming 24 Million today,tomorrow it will be 30 or 40 million. It's all about da Benjamins and the political power they buy.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 02:28:49 pm by sneakypete »
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Offline skeeter

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2020, 02:29:40 pm »
A balance must be struck, and soon.   The messages of social distancing and sanitation are being heard,  but enforcement of social distancing by government is about to turn the economy into a pumpkin, ruining the futures of millions. 

We need to quickly move from a total shutdown to a sensible series of prohibitions on large gatherings that allows more people to return to work.    Businesses should be advised to open if they provide hand sanitizer to all who enter,  and perhaps restrict the total number of people in the establishment.    Say,  allow restaurants to open if they remove a third of their seating capacity and space out the rest.   

I agree with Smokin' Joe that unless a balance is struck,  and soon, the human cost of job losses may overwhelm us.  As the WSJ said this morning,  "No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health.    Even America's resources to fight a viral plague aren't limitless - and they become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty.  America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown." 

LEO's in the Bay Area are now handing out citations for failure to keep proper 'social distancing' and being in public for unapproved reasons. In the cases I'm familiar with the fine is $400.00.

The Christmas party down at the station this year should be a real hootenanny.

With economic damage comes an erosion in civil liberties. This concerns me more.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 02:39:35 pm by skeeter »

Offline EdinVA

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2020, 02:48:10 pm »
@EdinVA

Ed,that is just business,as usual, "A typical day on Wall Street".


What this REALLY represents is a HUGE opportunity for the Globalists to use it as a tool to scare the timid (most of the world population) into accepting a World Wide Globalist Government. After all,this is being broadcast all over the world as a problem too big for any government to handle,right?

@sneakypete
I cannot help but think, given the size of some of these funds on wall street, that this is nothing more than the herd mentality.
When a $200 million fund moves, the ground shakes and the small folks follow...

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2020, 03:11:30 pm »
I wish there was an I don’t know button.

I see good and bad points for both arguments.  :facepalm2:

I agree on that.
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2020, 03:15:59 pm »
This is the 15 day "stay home" period. Hopefully, if Americans follow what our leaders have said, about 2 weeks from now, we will know where we stand and then, perhaps move in to the South Korea model which is precautions but working all the same. So, what we are doing now, is an urgent response, we will also have more of an idea on who is infected, confirmed cases.

Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2020, 03:23:56 pm »
Not to be a jerk, but who among us are qualified to answer this?
There is no right answer to this.

Offline Polly Ticks

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2020, 05:02:16 pm »
With economic damage comes an erosion in civil liberties. This concerns me more.

Same here.  I surprised there isn't more chatter/concern over this aspect of things.

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Offline Gefn

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2020, 05:06:52 pm »
I agree on that.

Any chance it could be added? I haven’t voted yet. Btw, NY state is going on lockdown
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 05:07:43 pm by Gefn »
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Online libertybele

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2020, 05:10:25 pm »
As @TomSea has alluded above and elsewhere...the preoccupation with the death numbers from this virus is folly.  It’s been pretty explicitly stated here and elsewhere:  the REAL danger of this virus is its potential to overwhelm our healthcare system.  When there are no more hospital beds, mask, ventilators, etc, etc...then not only are our healthcare workers in more jeopardy, further exacerbating the problem, but now people will be dying from heart attacks, stroke, infections, broken legs, etc.   There is no way to quantify THAT number.  Or the price that should be paid for that number.

Side note:  Tom, we’ve had our differences in the past, you’ve been excellent on this topic from what I’ve seen.

 :amen:  Agreed.  Thank you @TomSea
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Offline roamer_1

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2020, 05:48:49 pm »
It’s been pretty explicitly stated here and elsewhere:  the REAL danger of this virus is its potential to overwhelm our healthcare system.

No. It WILL overwhelm the health system. Preordained. Deaths WILL happen. Preordained.

Shutting down industry removes all hope of beating that.


Offline Bigun

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2020, 05:51:37 pm »
Same here.  I surprised there isn't more chatter/concern over this aspect of things.



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Online berdie

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Re: Here's the bottom line
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2020, 08:38:05 pm »
Not to be a jerk, but who among us are qualified to answer this?
There is no right answer to this.




I totally agree...who among us?

I believe that we can rebuild the economy. It can be fixed. The only thing that can't be fixed is...dead.