12 Mar 2020- Stock and Financial Markets Discussion Thread

[catfish1957]

12:05 a.m. CDT

DJIA Futures - 22,871,  -3.0%
S&P 500 Futures-  -75, -2.7%
NASDAQ Futures- -250, -3.1%

Gold- $1635/oz.

WTI- $31.69/bbl (ugh)

[Formerly Once-Ler]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1215299143066947584

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
STOCK MARKET AT ALL-TIME HIGH! HOW ARE YOUR 401K’S DOING? 70%, 80%, 90% up? Only 50% up! What are you doing wrong?
9:47 AM · Jan 9, 2020

[catfish1957]

7:00 a.m. CDT updates



DJIA Futures- down 1,231pts,  down 5.2%. Note:  A close of a few hundred more points than this will cross that psychological bear market correction line.
NASDAQ Futures - down 398 pts, down 5.0%
S&P 500 Futures-  down 132 pts, down 4.8%

Nikkei- Closed down 4.4%
Han Seng Closed down 3.7%
FTSE- Down 6.0%
CAC -Down 6.0%
DAX- Down 6.0%

Gold- $1,640 oz. Gold has remarkedly stayed much less volatile.  That is a good sign, that those in the inside don't see an armagaddon market scenario.

WTI- $30.99/bbl

Folks, watch for a huge drop at opening, with Circuit breakers likely being invoked.  A lot of futures of industries associated with travel..  Cruise Line, Airlines, etc, are see 20% losses in stock prices.

[catfish1957]

8:00 a.m. CDT updates

DJIA Futures- down 1,231pts,  down 5.2%. No change.  Equity lkely taking account circuit breaker at opening
NASDAQ Futures - down 402 pts, down 5.0%
S&P 500 Futures-  down 139 pts, down 5.1%


FTSE- Down 6.0%
CAC -Down 6.6%
DAX- Down 6.0%

Gold- $1,611 oz.

WTI- $30.87/bbl

VIX- 61.59 

[Gefn]

I think I jinxed it yesterday when I said “no whammies”

Should I say “whammies” and see if we get no whammies? FTSE is down over 6%. I haven’t checked other European or Asian markets yet. 

[catfish1957]

I think I jinxed it yesterday when I said “no whammies”

Should I say “whammies” and see if we get no whammies? FTSE is down over 6%. I haven’t checked other European or Asian markets yet.

Whammy will be theme at opening.  No doubt about it.  I just want some semblence of stability before making some investment calls.  At least at my age.  If I was 25 again, I'd be going crazy in buy mode on some of the most oversold

[Gefn]

Premarket trades point to U.S. stock market triggering circuit breakers at open

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trading-in-sp-500-etf-implies-the-stock-market-will-trigger-a-circuit-breaker-for-the-second-time-this-week-2020-03-12-9911612?mod=home-page

[Idiot]

Whammy will be theme at opening.  No doubt about it.  I just want some semblence of stability before making some investment calls.  At least at my age.  If I was 25 again, I'd be going crazy in buy mode on some of the most oversold

Don't jump in now....wait until the lows are tested AGAIN....then it's safe to test the waters.  I have my eye on a couple of local bank stocks that are on sale.

[mystery-ak]

Stocks plummet after Trump restricts travel to US from Europe
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/487188-stocks-plummet-after-trump-restricts-travel-to-us-from-europe

[catfish1957]

Stocks plummet after Trump restricts travel to US from Europe
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/487188-stocks-plummet-after-trump-restricts-travel-to-us-from-europe

Market will reopen in the next few minutes.  Lot of people holding on to their seats.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Whammy will be theme at opening.  No doubt about it.  I just want some semblence of stability before making some investment calls.  At least at my age.  If I was 25 again, I'd be going crazy in buy mode on some of the most oversold

Yep, but you or I did not have the money to do it back then most likely.

[catfish1957]

Market will reopen in the next few minutes.  Lot of people holding on to their seats.

Market drop approaching 2000.  Forgot what he secondary breaker is, but we can't be far.

[Gefn]

London’s FTSE 100/stock index suffers worst day since Black Monday 1987

https://www.marketwatch.com/

[Applewood]

Did anyone really think Trump's remarks yesterday or anything he and congress come up with will slow or reverse this slide?

It's' going to have to run its course. 

[Free Vulcan]

SPX futures hit 2500 on the open w/a big volume spike, which is where I measured the low. It's bounced since, see if that holds.

[libertybele]

Currently market is down over 2,000 pts., with futures down also over 2,000 pts.  So the potential is for the market to lose 4,000 pts. in the next 2 days.

Glad we reduced most of our risk and exposure.  We also own physical gold and silver which we bought years ago which I am thankful for.

[libertybele]

Yikes.  Just looked --- Gold is also taking a beating.   

[libertybele]

Coronavirus to pop bubble greater than 2008; gold prices have "nowhere to go but up"

(Kitco News) - A recession of a magnitude larger than the 2008 financial crisis is about to be triggered by the coronavirus, with problems rooted in excess levels of debt, this according to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.

Following a market downturn, an excess supply of capital is likely to flood the markets and drive up inflation, both of which would be bullish for gold, he said.

"I think that people have got this wrong, everybody is looking at this event as deflationary, but it is actually the opposite. You're going to have a reduction of production, so less supply of goods, and the world is going to be flooded with money," Schiff told Kitco News. "As if this will make a difference, it's just going to make a bad situation worse."

Schiff said that the underlying problems in our economy are now worse than what they were in 2008.

"The 2008 financial crisis was started by a drop in real estate prices, this one is started by the coronavirus. What's causing the crisis is not the pins, it's the bubble; it's the debt. It's because of all the debt we had a crisis in 2008, and because we have even more debt now, this is going to usher in an even bigger financial crisis," he said.

The bear market has already started, Schiff added, saying that a recession may start this quarter and that economic data may be revised.

"It's the financials that are really getting killed, and the reason they're getting killed is they're holding all the bad paper. They have made all the loans that are not going to get repaid, so this is just like 2008, only it's not just the banks that are going to need a bailout, it's the hotels, its' the airlines, it's companies like Boeing, it's the cruise lines," he said.

Gold prices have met resistance during the recent stock market selloff, but Schiff said that gold will still retain its safe haven asset.

"Gold is going to be the only safe haven left standing," Schiff said, adding that gold has historically fallen alongside equities in the opening phases of a bear market.


https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-12/Coronavirus-to-pop-bubble-greater-than-2008-gold-prices-have-nowhere-to-go-but-up.html

[catfish1957]

Yikes.  Just looked --- Gold is also taking a beating.   

A day or two ago, I mentioned a bit about the Late '60's Early '70's "Stagflation" situation that might be happening as the planets align. 

Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals all shrinking simultaneously?  A discreet possibility.

[catfish1957]

The one green spec of sand my chart is the rates for 30 Yr T Bonds, up over 3% today.

Yes, sadly a flight to safety.

[libertybele]

A day or two ago, I mentioned a bit about the Late '60's Early '70's "Stagflation" situation that might be happening as the planets align. 

Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals all shrinking simultaneously?  A discreet possibility.

It's a possibility.  We didn't starting investing until the early '90's, so I'm not in tune with what happened back in the '60's and 70's. Stagflation, not so sure of, I've read a  couple of articles that have indicated inflation because people will be getting out of the markets, and stockpiling cash and consumer demand will be down.

IMHO we are in absolute uncertainty and I don't think past stats or charts are reliable.  Each of us has to make a decision with our investments and assets. Personally right now holding gold, silver, very little in common stock, a few diversified funds, cash, lots of food and other necessities.

Very thankful that we sold our house 18 months ago and paid off all our debt; downsized and our expenses are manageable, we just have to be careful as we will no longer be getting the dividends that we are used to.  If we hadn't done this, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

[Fishrrman]

Could we see a 2,500pt. drop for a single Dow day?
Circuit breakers or not?

[catfish1957]

Could we see a 2,500pt. drop for a single Dow day?
Circuit breakers or not?

I don't see any good news on the horizon (fin wise) that would keep us from going there.  Too much fear.  Some valid, some not.

[libertybele]

The one green spec of sand my chart is the rates for 30 Yr T Bonds, up over 3% today.

Yes, sadly a flight to safety.

Most of us would take that 3% over losing money (unfortunately -- we've lost some and lost our gains - makes me sick). I feel for the people who have nothing to fall back on or are in debt.  I see another possible housing collapse and people upside down on their mortgages again.  We are also holding an annuity that we purchased back in the early '90's that's paying 3.5%, holding a few CD's at 2.5% - 3%)  --- I'll take some gain over no gain.  Yes, I praying that the market will eventually come back, but again, I believe we are in uncharted territory -- anyone's guess.

Also -- concerned about annuities.  In order to pay the returns, they have to invest their money somewhere -- lots of retirees have been talked to putting their entire nest egg into an annuity -- maybe a possibility of those become insolvent?  They aren't FDIC insured.

[catfish1957]

Most of us would take that 3% over losing money (unfortunately -- we've lost some and lost our gains - makes me sick). I feel for the people who have nothing to fall back on or are in debt.  I see another possible housing collapse and people upside down on their mortgages again.  We are also holding an annuity that we purchased back in the early '90's that's paying 3.5%, holding a few CD's at 2.5% - 3%)  --- I'll take some gain over no gain.  Yes, I praying that the market will eventually come back, but again, I believe we are in uncharted territory -- anyone's guess.

Also -- concerned about annuities.  In order to pay the returns, they have to invest their money somewhere -- lots of retirees have been talked to putting their entire nest egg into an annuity -- maybe a possibility of those become insolvent?  They aren't FDIC insured.

LB, 30 yr T Bonds rates are up 3% for the day. Actual rate is (yuck) 1.2%.  Sorry I wasn't clearer on that

Supposedly, annuities are the safest investment on earth according to the couple  CFP's that I know. BAsically they said that entire insurance world is tied  the fulcrum of Lloyds of London.  For all of that finance base to be lost, would be akin to the end of civilization.  Whether. I beleive that or not, is a whole another discussion.