In a year or two you might be reminiscing about the 'good old days' of any drilling project.
An observation: I have been through a couple of real hefty boom/bust cycles, and some of the middlin' muddlin' in between. What I have noticed, though is that there are operators who keep drilling, almost no matter what. The markets get depressed, keeping the iron going is cheaper than picking it back up after it has been stacked for a few months, so drillers prices get marginal for the drilling companies. Not a lot of profit, but they stay in the game, keep their equipment up, and keep a core of capable people around to train the next wave. Some operators are positioned to take advantage of those prices, and do so, continuing with development projects, albeit sometimes at a reduced pace, setting up production for the next price recovery. DUC wells will likely increase in number, until completion costs come back down some. That curve will vary from operator to operator, but the biggies keep looking for the 'next Big Thing' and develop known reserves in anticipation of the next high.
Low prices are the cure for low prices, as those who can't afford to develop see those IP curves drop to long term production levels, which are higher in some basins and provinces than others. While the Saudis and even the Russians may pick up some market share in the interim, the same economics apply. They can't afford to keep production up against depletion if they are selling oil for less than it costs them to get it out of the ground. As a result, I think the tiff will be relatively short lived (a few months at most), and OPEC will sort it out.
