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On paper and in theory, Republicans’ chances of winning back the House look pretty good. But a district-by-district analysis reveals much longer odds, even if the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders for president.Republicans need a net gain of 18 House seats for the majority. Considering 30 Democrats represent districts President Donald Trump carried in 2016, it would appear the GOP is well-positioned for a takeover.In reality, the number of seats Republicans need to gain is closer to 21 because the party is likely to lose two seats in North Carolina under its new district lines, as well as Rep. Will Hurd’s seat in Texas. In addition, not all of those 30 Trump districts are currently hosting competitive races.With a combination of poor GOP recruitment and strong fundraising by Democratic incumbents, Inside Elections recently downgraded Republicans’ chances of victory in nine districts, including three Trump seats held by Democrats whose reelections no longer appear on the list of competitive races at all. Those contests — Angie Craig’s in Minnesota’s 2nd, Mikie Sherrill’s in New Jersey’s 11th, and Ron Kind’s in Wisconsin’s 3rd — all moved from Likely to Solid Democratic.
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Topic: Ratings changes: House control moving further away from GOP (Read 204 times)
