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Trump will win a 2nd presidential term if this roughly 50-year-old gauge of the economy holds true

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libertybele:
Trump will win a 2nd presidential term if this roughly 50-year-old gauge of the economy holds true

One measure of the health of the economy may point to a 2020 victory for President Donald Trump as he bids to win a second term in office.

The so-called “Misery Index,” devised by economist Arthur Okun, is a basic gauge of how the average person feels about the health of the U.S. economy. The indicator, the sum of the unemployment rate and inflation, has been recently hanging around its lowest point of the past four years.

A decline over a four-year stretch in the index has tended to assure that an incumbent president wins re-election with just a few exceptions, according to analysis by Bloomberg back in 2012.

The misery index was around 7.4% at the beginning of President Trump’s term and was at 5.785% at the end of 2019 and now stands at around 5.9%, based on an unemployment rate at 3.6% and inflation at 2.3%...........

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-will-win-a-2nd-presidential-term-if-this-roughly-50-year-old-gauge-of-the-economy-holds-true-2020-02-11?mod=home-page

skeeter:
I'd be holding my breath expecting an October Surprise if the rats hadn't already vaccinated Trump against one. There's very little they can do now.

libertybele:

--- Quote from: skeeter on February 11, 2020, 11:06:08 pm ---I'd be holding my breath expecting an October Surprise if the rats hadn't already vaccinated Trump against one. There's very little they can do now.

--- End quote ---

I'm sure that they are working on the second round of impeachments.  More than anything, I worry about his health and the tremendous amount of stress that the first impeachment had on him on top of the stress of being President.

skeeter:

--- Quote from: libertybele on February 11, 2020, 11:18:24 pm ---I'm sure that they are working on the second round of impeachments.  More than anything, I worry about his health and the tremendous amount of stress that the first impeachment had on him on top of the stress of being President.

--- End quote ---

Hopefully he'll be able to relax after November.

libertybele:
I'm curious as to what the current 'misery index' is today. Anyone?

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