Renewables Set to Overtake Natural Gas in US Power Mix, EIA Says

[IsailedawayfromFR]

A year ago, the EIA predicted gas would remain the country’s top power source through 2050. It’s changed its mind.

It’s official: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has finally come around to the view that renewables will overtake natural gas in the country’s electricity mix.

The EIA has long been known for its implausibly conservative predictions about renewable energy. As recently as last year, the EIA forecast that natural gas would remain the country’s top source of electricity out to 2050.

Last year in its Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA put natural gas at 39 percent of the power mix in 2050 under its base-case scenario, far outpacing renewables at 31 percent.

Fast forward to the 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, released Wednesday, and that prediction has been turned on its head: Renewables are now forecast to account for 38 percent of electricity in 2050 (up from 19 percent today), while natural gas will see its share drop to 36 percent (from 37 percent today).

“We see renewables as the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050 as cost declines make them economically competitive beyond the expiration of existing federal and state policy supports,” EIA Administrator Lisa Capuano said in a statement.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/eia-renewables-will-overtake-natural-gas-in-us-power-mix

To me, the chances of this happening  are slim to none.

[Joe Wooten]

To me, the chances of this happening  are slim to none.

Yep. I agree. Sooner or later the subsidies will end. Gas will have to get 3-4 times more expensive along with carbon taxes for this to be even probable. And if that happens, nukes will become massively profitable again

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Yep. I agree. Sooner or later the subsidies will end. Gas will have to get 3-4 times more expensive along with carbon taxes for this to be even probable. And if that happens, nukes will become massively profitable again

Besides the cost aspects, delivered power must of necessity be reliably generated and transmitted.

Solar and Wind noticeably fail in this regard, whereas conventional generation by coal, nuclear and natural gas have reliability of supply as their strong suits.

Recent power shortages in California are most indicative of the problems associated with over-reliance on renewables.  Those affected undoubtedly have buyers remorse in support of renewables for their power supply.

I have strong doubts that EIA included this aspect within its assessment, and simply extrapolated current trends, a dangerous way to forecast without understanding the background of sources of power supply.

[thackney]

Besides the cost aspects, delivered power must of necessity be reliably generated and transmitted.

Solar and Wind noticeably fail in this regard, whereas conventional generation by coal, nuclear and natural gas have reliability of supply as their strong suits.

Recent power shortages in California are most indicative of the problems associated with over-reliance on renewables.  Those affected undoubtedly have buyers remorse in support of renewables for their power supply.

I have strong doubts that EIA included this aspect within its assessment, and simply extrapolated current trends, a dangerous way to forecast without understanding the background of sources of power supply.

You seem to be ignoring the growing energy storage market.

The AEO2020 Reference case projects that the United States will have 17 GW of battery storage capacity in 2050. Storage capacity takes advantage of times when an oversupply of electricity occurs, which generally happens in areas that have a high penetration of nondispatchable renewable resources such as wind and solar. Limitations in the time a battery can store electricity make batteries more suitable for solar, which has more predictable generation patterns than wind.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2020%20Electricity.pdf

The report makes it very clear that this is very dependent on prices.  In the same AEO2020 report they make it clear they also see a reasonable case where Natural Gas could exceed all other sources of electric power combined. 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

You seem to be ignoring the growing energy storage market.

Ignoring in what way?

Energy storage via batteries will never make it other than selectively, heavily subsidized.  No better than the way wind and solar make it now.

And BTW, I see energy storage in every molecule of natural gas and coal.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2020%20Electricity.pdf

The report makes it very clear that this is very dependent on prices.  In the same AEO2020 report they make it clear they also see a reasonable case where Natural Gas could exceed all other sources of electric power combined.

The referenced report contains this
• Because of declining capital costs and higher renewable portfolio standards (RPS) targets in some states, AEO2020 projects that the relatively sharp growth in renewables seen during the past 10 years will continue through the projection period.

So how are mandates price-related?

It also states

As electricity demand grows modestly, the primary drivers for
new capacity in the AEO2020 Reference case are retirements of
older, less-efficient fossil fuel units; the near-term availability of
renewable energy tax credits; and the continued decline in the
capital cost of renewables, especially solar photovoltaic. Low
natural gas prices and favorable costs for renewables result in
natural gas and renewables as the primary sources of new
generation capacity through 2050. The future generation mix is
sensitive to the price of natural gas and growth in electricity
demand.

Once again, the need for tax credits remains a driver for renewables, not simply lower capital costs and natural gas prices.

[Bigun]

Take away the government subsidies and ALL the renewables go {{{{{{{POOF}}}}} overnight.

[catfish1957]

Take away the government subsidies and ALL the renewables go {{{{{{{POOF}}}}} overnight.

Then add the fact when this global warming sham is fully exposed.....   Double Poof.

[thackney]

Ignoring in what way?

Energy storage via batteries will never make it other than selectively, heavily subsidized.  No better than the way wind and solar make it now.

I do not agree.  Battery systems are being installed now completely separate from renewable energy projects.  The peak shaving cost of buying electricity during the night and selling during the day peak is already cost justified without subsidy.

And BTW, I see energy storage in every molecule of natural gas and coal.

But only usable once unlike pumped storage, batteries or others.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2020%20Electricity.pdf
The referenced report contains this
• Because of declining capital costs and higher renewable portfolio standards (RPS) targets in some states, AEO2020 projects that the relatively sharp growth in renewables seen during the past 10 years will continue through the projection period.

So how are mandates price-related?

Mandates are part of the reality.  I do not support them but I also do not pretend they do not exist.

It also states

As electricity demand grows modestly, the primary drivers for
new capacity in the AEO2020 Reference case are retirements of
older, less-efficient fossil fuel units; the near-term availability of
renewable energy tax credits; and the continued decline in the
capital cost of renewables, especially solar photovoltaic. Low
natural gas prices and favorable costs for renewables result in
natural gas and renewables as the primary sources of new
generation capacity through 2050. The future generation mix is
sensitive to the price of natural gas and growth in electricity
demand.

Once again, the need for tax credits remains a driver for renewables, not simply lower capital costs and natural gas prices.

So you predict those will all go away?  Wishful thinking or real predicting?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I do not agree.  Battery systems are being installed now completely separate from renewable energy projects.  The peak shaving cost of buying electricity during the night and selling during the day peak is already cost justified without subsidy.

I know you are correct that these are being built separate from renewables as you yourself work on those projects.

For these projects, are those costs operating only or do they include all-in costs including capital? Are tax schemes which favor renewables including tax credits also within the economic justifications?

Are these new base load situations that do not include the cost of shutting down natural gas and coal as well?  I see almost zero chance an economic case can be made to replace coal or natural gas with solar and wind with energy storage.  The incremental economics to justify are just not there.

It may be I am overlooking one thing: the need to have a backup natural gas generator to deliver power during the night-time or when wind is not blowing could be perhaps diminished should proper storage solutions be at hand.  Is that it?

But only usable once unlike pumped storage, batteries or others.

Those stored energy molecules of coal and natural gas, unlike stored energy generated by batteries, are much more efficiently transported to the place of usage.  You well know electricity transmission is woefully inefficient.

Mandates are part of the reality.  I do not support them but I also do not pretend they do not exist.

The reality is that there are mandates that favor one industry over another.  Just guess how many renewables projects would be constructed if natural gas and coal projects had the same level of mandates and tax credits available to them? 

So you predict those will all go away?  Wishful thinking or real predicting?

This is a statement from the article you sent, not my words.  All I did was quote what they said the basis for their predictions are.  Renewable tax credits has nothing whatsoever remotely to do with true economics as it is a distortion.

Any company that bases its projects on tax credits being in place will most certainly fail over time as those can always be taken away.  The underlying project economics that are supported without them will always be more efficient in a capitalistic society and the proper way to compare alternative ways to generate power.