I believe you're right, @roamer_1 I highly doubt that Donald Trump will be re-elected, notwithstanding the humming economy. This is one election where Carville's adage will not hold true - the economy is not what's on voters' minds this time around. Rather, the issue, seemingly the sole issue, is Trump himself. The Dems are united in opposition to an unprecedented degree, and their goal in nationalizing this election over the issue of Trump the man is going to gain for them the House and Senate in all likelihood. Ironically, Trump himself also seeks the election to be a referendum as well on himself. Things simply do not look good.
I think that's right
@Jazzhead . I think the Dems will be balls-to-the-wall this election. Republicans benefited last time because of internecine fighting within the Democrat party, and Hillary, who for all the press, was an awful candidate that no one wanted...
Folks tend to forget in their zeal, that the last presidential election had low turnout from all sides. And even in that rarefied environment, Tump STILL didn't get the popular vote. And that has not changed all that much.
What has changed is Democrat seething vehement hate. As you say, making this election all about Tump will certainly align the Democrats exactly under that 'Hate Tump' banner, in massive solidarity, regardless of the candidate. I doubt very much that the Bernie/Clinton feud will be repeated. I think that whomever the candidate is on the left, The entire left as a single force, will be out to get Tump fired. And losing the impeachment battle will only clarify the issue in their minds.
The Left will be a tsunami. Of that I have little doubt. What is in question is whether the Right and the independents will be enough of a bulwark against it. Of that I am largely unsure. I know that Conservatives are bitterly factionalized over Tump. That should be enough to cast a large shadow. I know there are a ton of people that don't like him, but they have been trained to hold their noses... And been told they are voting against the dems... Both asinine theories, which are antithetical, But there they are.
There was an interesting analysis in yesterday's WSJ about the uneven impact of the current economic good times. Economic growth is most pronounced on the coasts where the opposition to Trump is implacable. Meanwhile, Trump's Midwest base hasn't benefitted as much; farm bankruptcies, for example, are up by over 20 percent.
Anecdotally, I will agree. I know the Intermountain west, and the Pacific Northwest in general is not seeing the promised industrial awakening. The mills are still gone. The mountain roads still gated. Timber sales and mining still largely languishing. We're doing alright, but nothing much has changed, other than the cost of living going up...
Trump retains his loyalists, to be sure - from their perspective this all about the culture seemingly passing them by. But they are not necessarily the beneficiaries of Trump's economy - the liberals in the big coastal cities and their suburbs are. And they won't be thanking Trump.
Likely right, at least here in the Rockies.
I think the Right will have the harder time with GOTV.
I think the Right is fractured, and nothing much has been done to repair the breaches. In fact, everything possible has been done to rend those breaches further, to the point now that they are set in stone. That will be the point in question when meeting the inevitable Blue Tide. That will be the point of failure, if failure occurs...
I understand that most here will disagree and say they've heard all this shit from me before. But Trump should be careful what he wishes for. Tribalism begets tribalism, and the Dem tribe sure seems to have the upper hand the more I drill down into the state by state analysis needed to predict the outcome of the coming storm.
That is said with much clarity, and should be a caution, though I am fairly certain it will be shouted down. The Dem tribe will not be factionalized in their viceral hate of Tump. But the Right is deeply factionalized, and standing on nothing... and with that, the race will be another nail-biter, I think.
