Caught off guard: why didn’t America see Pearl Harbor coming?

[rangerrebew]

Caught off guard: why didn’t America see Pearl Harbor coming?

Why didn’t Washington see the deadly strike on Pearl Harbor coming? The attack, which took place on 7 December 1941, remained veiled in secrecy due to US hubris and inch-perfect Japanese planning, writes Robert Lyman
 

Mixed signals: A shortwave radio listening post in California, set up to report and translate broadcasts from Asia. (Photo by AP/Shutterstock)
November 25, 2019 at 2:02 pm

The US knew, in the second half of 1941, that Japan was preparing for war in the western Pacific and south-east Asia. Tokyo needed to secure material for its military operations in China – principally oil, tin, bauxite and rubber. But Washington was never aware of the final details of these plans.

US strategists knew, of course, that a Japanese offensive would chiefly target Dutch and British possessions in south-east Asia, because it was there that the raw materials required to fuel Japan’s imperial ambitions were located. They knew, also, that the US’s military presence in the Philippines would at some point come into the crosshairs. For some time, it had been clear that Japan was war-minded. Emperor Hirohito’s expansionist regime had been beating the war drum in Asia since it had entered Manchuria in 1931, and had begun military operations elsewhere in China in 1937. The world had seen the alacrity with which it had forced a humiliated France to submit to its demands in Indochina in June 1940, and had watched Japan sign the Tripartite Pact on 27 September 1940 with the European fascist aggressor nations, Germany and Italy.

https://www.historyextra.com/period/second-world-war/pearl-harbor-advance-knowledge-conspiracy-theory-debunked-did-america-predict-attack-date-day/

[PeteS in CA]

The disposition of USN aircraft carriers (CVs) reflects that there was general wariness but not specific knowledge.

USS Saratoga (CV-3) had been in Bremerton for drydock and had returned to its home port, San Diego.

USS Lexington (CV-2) had ferried aircraft to reinforce Midway and was still near the island.

USS Enterprise (CV-6) had ferried aircraft to reinforce Wake Island and was so close to PH that her search group (VS6) had been sent toward the US naval air base so they could operate while CV-6 was in port. Pilots of VS6 tangled with the Japanese attackers, while the rest of CV-6's air group and CV-2's air group would conduct air searches for Kido Butai.

If the CT is that Washington knew the date and wanted to sacrifice USN ships, then CV-3 was in the wrong place to be sacrificed. And because CV-3 was more worn from service and less ideal as a CV than CV-6, CV-3 rather than CV-6 should have been exposed, were the CT true. CV-2 was also in the wrong place to be sacrificed.

OTOH, if the CT is that Washington knew the date and wanted to preserve the CVs, then CV-6 was in the wrong place. She could have been discovered by accident, and a 6-on-1 contest, even net of some IJN air group depletion, would have been disastrous.

[PeteS in CA]

The OP article notes that PH's air searches had been focused southwest. This is because the nearest Japanese base - for over 20 years - was in the Marshall Islands, to the southwest.

To give an idea of how wrong-footed WashDC thinking was in regard to Japan's intentions, Adm Kimmel and Gen. Short were not included in distribution of Magic decrypts (the Japanese diplomatic code, unrelated to the IJN's JN25). Air bases had been ordered to protect against sabotage, resulting in parking aircraft close together so they could be guarded more easily (which made them an easy massed target for air assault).

[skeeter]

Most analysis of PH focus on America's underestimation of Japanese capabilities. This is only partially true, we knew the Japanese navy had considerable offensive strike capability. But because no reasonable person ever considered Japan capable of winning a war with the US, the attack on PH came as such a surprise because such a move was so obviously irrational. And though it was a tactical success it was irrational, the proof came over the course of the four following years.

[sneakypete]

There are many people,and I am one of them,who think Roosevelt DID know about the impending attacks because the US Navy codebreakers had broken the Japanese Naval Codes,and were reading their messages.

Roosevelt was itching to get into the war so he would save his idol,Joseph Stalin from the Nazi's,but just didn't have the political support necessary. Not even after the Germans started sinking US ships hauling food,clothing,and war material to the USSR. Besides his communist sympathies,he understood that nothing would get the American economy out of the Depression like a war,so he was chomping at the bit to get us involved. A Japanese attack on a US Naval base was a slam dunk guarantee Congress would vote for war.

[skeeter]

There are many people,and I am one of them,who think Roosevelt DID know about the impending attacks because the US Navy codebreakers had broken the Japanese Naval Codes,and were reading their messages.

Roosevelt was itching to get into the war so he would save his idol,Joseph Stalin from the Nazi's,but just didn't have the political support necessary. Not even after the Germans started sinking US ships hauling food,clothing,and war material to the USSR. Besides his communist sympathies,he understood that nothing would get the American economy out of the Depression like a war,so he was chomping at the bit to get us involved. A Japanese attack on a US Naval base was a slam dunk guarantee Congress would vote for war.

There is some support for that theory but it was the diplomatic code we had broken at that point, not the naval code.

We knew Japan would militarily act, when knew when (to within 24 hours), but according the most recent scholarship not exactly where.

[sneakypete]

There is some support for that theory but it was the diplomatic code we had broken at that point, not the naval code.

We knew Japan would militarily act, when knew when (to within 24 hours), but according the most recent scholarship not exactly where.

@skeeter

Well,the diplomatic message sent to the Japanese Embassy on the day before the Pearl Harbor attack telling the diplomats to remain in the embassy and to burn all their code books and records SHOULD have been a good first clue. NOTHING shouts "WAR!" like a coded message to an Embassy to burn all their code books and other classified material,like the identities of local agents,sympathizers,etc,etc,etc. That is unmistakable.

Not to mention the fact that the FBI had their phone lines tapped.

[jpsb]

The disposition of USN aircraft carriers (CVs) reflects that there was general wariness but not specific knowledge.

@PeteS in CA

Excellent analysis, thanks.

[roamer_1]

Hanlon's razor applies.

[skeeter]

@skeeter

Well,the diplomatic message sent to the Japanese Embassy on the day before the Pearl Harbor attack telling the diplomats to remain in the embassy and to burn all their code books and records SHOULD have been a good first clue. NOTHING shouts "WAR!" like a coded message to an Embassy to burn all their code books and other classified material,like the identities of local agents,sympathizers,etc,etc,etc. That is unmistakable.

Not to mention the fact that the FBI had their phone lines tapped.

Thats all true. Plus the allies were monitoring a Japanese invasion fleet moving into SE asia and knew when it would arrive off the Malaysian peninsula. So we knew the when.

[PeteS in CA]

There are many people,and I am one of them,who think Roosevelt DID know about the impending attacks because the US Navy codebreakers had broken the Japanese Naval Codes,and were reading their messages. 1.

Roosevelt was itching to get into the war so he would save his idol,Joseph Stalin from the Nazi's,but just didn't have the political support necessary. Not even after the Germans started sinking US ships hauling food,clothing,and war material to the USSR. Besides his communist sympathies,he understood that nothing would get the American economy out of the Depression like a war,so he was chomping at the bit to get us involved. A Japanese attack on a US Naval base was a slam dunk guarantee Congress would vote for war. 2.

1. As the OP article states, the USN had only partly broken JN25, the naval code, and was not "reading their messages". The diplomatic code, "Purple", had been broken and WashDC was reading those messages. But the messages to Japanese diplomats did not say anything about the PH attack until the message received at the diplomacy on 12/7/1941. Thus, withholding "Purple" messages from Kimmel and Short was incredibly stupid, but did not withhold info about the coming attack.

2. As the OP article pointed out, war with Japan did not guarantee war with Germany. In the event, Congress declared war on Japan. Germany then declared war on the US, which it was not obligated to do by its treaty with Japan. Only then did Congress declare war on Germany.

War with Japan diverted US resources from the Atlantic and Europe to the Pacific. And war with Japan strained England's already dire situation by spreading the RN thinner than it already was, pressuring the return of Anzac forces from North Africa to their homelands, and threatening and eventually cutting off the resources England needed from Malaysia and the Dutch East Indies (= the resources Japan sought).

[catfish1957]

There are many people,and I am one of them,who think Roosevelt DID know about the impending attacks because the US Navy codebreakers had broken the Japanese Naval Codes,and were reading their messages.

Roosevelt was itching to get into the war so he would save his idol,Joseph Stalin from the Nazi's,but just didn't have the political support necessary. Not even after the Germans started sinking US ships hauling food,clothing,and war material to the USSR. Besides his communist sympathies,he understood that nothing would get the American economy out of the Depression like a war,so he was chomping at the bit to get us involved. A Japanese attack on a US Naval base was a slam dunk guarantee Congress would vote for war.

Interesting take.  I obviously wasn't alive at the time, but I would have figured Nazi bombing in England in '40 would have triggered our entry.  You got to wonder how this whole thing would have changed if the UK (or the USSR) had fallen before Dec 7, '41

[skeeter]

Interesting take.  I obviously wasn't alive at the time, but I would have figured Nazi bombing in England in '40 would have triggered our entry.  You got to wonder how this whole thing would have changed if the UK (or the USSR) had fallen before Dec 7, '41

The hawks in US leadership were worried that a Japanese attack on the Philippines wouldn't be enough to provoke enough popular American support for war, as Americans are historically anti-colonial, and were trying to figure out what their response would be when the Japanese hammer fell there. PH certainly simplified that problem.

[sneakypete]

Hanlon's razor applies.

@roamer_1

I'm drawing a blank. What does it state?

[roamer_1]

@roamer_1

I'm drawing a blank. What does it state?

@sneakypete

Something like, "Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence."

[sneakypete]

@sneakypete

Something like, "Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence."

@roamer_1

THANKS!

[bigheadfred]

I don't think FDR knew "exactly" about Pearl Harbor since his Day of Infamy speech was written in 1939. @sneakypete

[Absalom]

Most analysis of PH focus on America's underestimation of Japanese capabilities. This is only partially true, we knew the Japanese navy had considerable offensive strike capability. But because no reasonable person ever considered Japan capable of winning a war with the US, the attack on PH came as such a surprise because such a move was so obviously irrational. And though it was a tactical success it was irrational, the proof came over the course of the four following years.

---------------------------
A strong demurral.
The notion that "no reasonable person ever considered Japan capable of wining a war w/the USA"
is so preposterous, it's goofy. Certainly the Japaneses did or were they all unreasonable louts???
And so a reflection.
Japan had adopted an isolationist foreign policy around 1630, for the express purpose of halting/eliminating the spread of Christianity in Japan from Portuguese and Spanish Missionaries;
the exception being trade relations w/China and the Dutch.
Then in 1853, Commodore Matthew Perry, under orders from Pres. Fillmore, sailed into Tokyo Bay
for the express purpose of opening diplomatic and trade relations w/the Empire of Japan.
That action triggered the Restoration of the Mejii Shogunate but much more importantly, in a very
brief period of time, it opened the eyes of Japan who looked North, South, East and West.
What they saw was a another Island nation/state comparable in size to theirs, in the North Atlantic;
Imperial Britain w/an Empire that spanned half the world.
Instantly they grasped the importance of Naval Power and the rest is history.
They structured a formidable Navy which dominated China, sank the entire Czarist far eastern fleet
at the Strait of Tsushima in 1905 and challenged Great Britain for world Naval supremacy in WW 2.
As for the surprise attack at Peal Harbor, it's 'what if' conjecture, speculation and surmise, since in
1941 potential Japanese targets in Asia and the Pacific Rim included India, Australia, New Zealand
as well as Western Latin America.

[Wingnut]

Was it over when the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

[bigheadfred]

Was it over when the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

It was over before then.

December 23, 1913

[Wingnut]

It was over before then.

December 23, 1913

99 loftballons.;

[sneakypete]

Most analysis of PH focus on America's underestimation of Japanese capabilities. This is only partially true, we knew the Japanese navy had considerable offensive strike capability. But because no reasonable person ever considered Japan capable of winning a war with the US, the attack on PH came as such a surprise because such a move was so obviously irrational. And though it was a tactical success it was irrational, the proof came over the course of the four following years.

@skeeter

I have read and heard that the Imperial Japanese Navy Staff understood they could not hope to defeat the US in a protracted war,but the hope was they could strike such a severe blow that they would virtually control the Pacific for long enough to take it over before the Americans could rebuild enough to take them on. 

One senior Japanese Admiral (Admiral Yamamoto) wrote in his journal the day of the Pearl Harbor attack "I fear we have awakened a sleeping beast". He  had been stationed in DC at one time,and had attended American colleges as a engineering student,so he had some idea of America's industrial might,and he understood not taking out the fleet that went to sea on day before the raid meant there would be NO "breathing space" for Japan to conquer Asia before the Americans would be able to retaliate.

In fact we started retaliating almost immediately. The very next day American warships were running patrols off the coast of Hawaii,and an American carrier group was searching for the retreating Japanese task force.

The fact that that carrier group took to sea the day before the raid on a unscheduled training mission is another factor that leads me to believe King Franklin and his toadies knew about the upcoming attack.   Not exactly proof,but very odd. That type of thing is always carefully planned in advance right down to the tiniest detail. It's not done spur of the moment. Too complex with too many working pieces that need to fit together.

[sneakypete]

---------------------------

A strong demurral.
The notion that "no reasonable person ever considered Japan capable of wining a war w/the USA"
is so preposterous, it's goofy. Certainly the Japaneses did or were they all unreasonable louts???

@Absalom

Far from it. They were already maxed out with trying to conquer all of Asia,and taking on the US in a protracted war was a war they knew they would lose BECAUSE they were stretched out to the max,and because they lacked the ability to strike at America,but with anything less than a total destruction of the capital warships at Pearl Harbor they would lose because the just did not have the capability to fight America while still fighting all of Asia.

 

They structured a formidable Navy which dominated China, sank the entire Czarist far eastern fleet
at the Strait of Tsushima in 1905

Financing a Foreign War: Jacob H. Schiff and Japan, 1904–05

https://www.jstor.org/stable/23880523?seq=1

The Schiff international banking family lent the Japanese the money they needed to build warships to defeat the Czar's Navy. Schiff was steamed about the Communist takeover in Russia because he and his family had to flee and leave behind considerable property in order to avoid labor camps or firing squads. That should put the power and influence of international banking families in the proper perspective. This is a man that had to leave ALL of his real property behind as well as a lot of the money he had deposited in other banks spread around Russia,flee to America as a refugee family,and STILL have enough cash on hand to lend enough money to Japan to build a modern Navy.

BTW,IIRC,one of Goober Gore's daughters is married to one of that Schiff's grandsons. Now you know who is financing his global warming crusade.

[catfish1957]

Far from it. They were already maxed out with trying to conquer all of Asia,and taking on the US in a protracted war was a war they knew they would lose BECAUSE they were stretched out to the max,and because they lacked the ability to strike at America,but with anything less than a total destruction of the capital warships at Pearl Harbor they would lose because the just did not have the capability to fight America while still fighting all of Asia.

 

I am not near as knowldegable of WW2 say vs. WBTS.  However, I do remember talking to plenty of folks who say that the early days (say '41-'43) were pretty worrisome. and most gave thought that we conceivably could have lost the war.  I have heard some experts say that if either England or Russia had fallen to the Nazis , that the odds of an Allied win were pretty low.

[Absalom]

@Absalom

Far from it. They were already maxed out with trying to conquer all of Asia,and taking on the US in a protracted war was a war they knew they would lose BECAUSE they were stretched out to the max,
and because they lacked the ability to strike at America,but with anything less than a total destruction of the capital warships at Pearl Harbor they would lose because the just did not have the capability to fight America while still fighting all of Asia.

---------------------------------
Maxed out fighting and trying to conquer all of Asia??????????
Japan was the dominant Asian power from 1875 onward having
kicked China's butt in every Sino-Japanese conflict since then.
They had driven Russia out of East Asia @ Port Arthur and
occupied the Korean Peninsula since 1905.
They controlled Indo-China and Siam (Thailand)
They had conquered Burma, Malaya and Singapore in days.
They had conquered the Philippines.
They effectively controlled the Dutch East Indies.
What was left??? India, Australia, New Zealand and
a bunch of Pacific Islands, if they had any interest.
Maxed out??? They were just getting started!!!!!
What in the name of heaven are you talking about?????????