OPEC Sees Flood Of U.S. Shale Barrels Hurting Demand For Its Crude Oil
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2019/11/05/opec-sees-flood-of-us-shale-barrels-hurting-demand-for-its-crude-oil/#6566b49274b7Nov 5, 2019
Non-OPEC supply is set to exceed crude oil demand over the next half-decade courtesy of a flood of U.S. shale barrels, according to none other than OPEC itself.
In its annual observations on the direction of the global oil market published on Tuesday (November 5), the 14-member producers' group cut estimates for the amount of crude it will need to pump over the next five years, thereby admitting that its market share will shrink until 2024.
"At the global level, growth is forecast to slow from a level of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to around 0.5 million bpd towards the end of the next decade," OPEC noted in its keenly-followed World Oil Outlook 2020 report.
In terms of headline growth, OPEC has lowered its projections for global oil demand growth to 104.8 million bpd by 2024, and to 110.6 million bpd by 2040. Only problem, as it acknowledges, is that U.S. shale producers will continue to flood the market.
"The main driver of medium-term non-OPEC supply growth remains overwhelmingly U.S. tight [shale] oil," OPEC noted. The producers' group predicts that by 2025, U.S. oil output, driven on by shale, would have risen by over 40% to a level of 17 million bpd; an upward revision of 3.1 million bpd over its forecast in last year's market assessment.....