Historically accurate election model shows Trump on his way to reelection
By Tal Axelrod - 10/16/19 09:09 AM EDT
President Trump appears likely to win reelection next year according to three different economic models Moody’s Analytics uses to measure presidential contests.
Moody’s modeling, which has only missed on one presidential election since 1980, found that Trump who won by a 304-227 margin in the electoral college in 2016, could easily surpass those results in 2020.
The three different models showed Trump winning either 289, 332 or 351 votes in the electoral college over his eventual opponent. The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,†Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper, told CNBC. “It’s about turnout.â€
Of the three models, Trump performs best under the “pocketbook†measure, which gauges how people feel about their finances.
more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466028-historically-accurate-election-model-shows-trump-on-way-to-easy-reelection
