Author Topic: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%  (Read 395 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online mystery-ak

  • Owner
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 284,800
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« on: October 03, 2019, 10:14:23 AM »
Thursday, October 03, 2019

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 33% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11.

more
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct03?fbclid=IwAR0yqpJtPy52AKvNOqhkLt3PCGi4PRISTsQQPi4HaKWB5c-RdwN-Xc5Q0_A
Support the USO
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide
STFU Rudy

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2019, 11:41:54 AM »
Rasmussen is supposed to be one of the more reliable pollsters and one that Trump often cites, in tweets. Last week, prior to the phone call stories, he was at 53% approval, with this poll.  The impeachment talk has been a fundraising catalyst, but he has dropped 6 points, during that time, in this particular poll. That seems curious.


http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 11:43:53 AM by edpc »
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2019, 10:05:42 AM »
Rasmussen is supposed to be one of the more reliable pollsters and one that Trump often cites, in tweets. Last week, prior to the phone call stories, he was at 53% approval, with this poll.  The impeachment talk has been a fundraising catalyst, but he has dropped 6 points, during that time, in this particular poll. That seems curious.


http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Your post is a terrible misreading of how tracking polls work. Tracking polls fluctuate around a mean, generally, and the Rasmussen has been consistent in showing Trump at around 48-50% for months. It has daily fluctuations from that mean ranging from 45-53 but these are little more than statistical noise.  Asserting that the President has dropped 6% since impeachment began may be technically correct, but it is deeply disingenuous in that the tracking poll in context shows that the President's favorability has not really moved at all.

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2019, 10:28:53 AM »
Your post is a terrible misreading of how tracking polls work.


Keep that in mind, when Trump selectively tweets Rasmussen numbers when they're at 50% or higher.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2019, 12:54:22 PM »

Keep that in mind, when Trump selectively tweets Rasmussen numbers when they're at 50% or higher.

I always keep that in mind. So should you when YOU make an unsupportable assertion...saying "Well, he did it too" doesn't really strengthen your argument.

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2019, 01:53:21 PM »
I always keep that in mind. So should you when YOU make an unsupportable assertion...saying "Well, he did it too" doesn't really strengthen your argument.


What argument? All I did was point out the fact he had dropped, during the time of a bad news cycle, while donations have gone up. That just seems odd. I don’t know if the two are related, but I happen to think that most people that bother responding to polls are politically engaged and informed on current issues. I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2019, 02:54:04 PM »

What argument? All I did was point out the fact he had dropped, during the time of a bad news cycle, while donations have gone up. That just seems odd. I don’t know if the two are related, but I happen to think that most people that bother responding to polls are politically engaged and informed on current issues. I wouldn’t completely rule it out.

Your argument that his approval was actually dropping...as opposed to mere statistical noise showing a normal fluctuation in a daily tracking poll. Tying it in with a "bad news cycle" was clearly an argument to link the two things...or to suggest a linkage. As for ruling things out, virtually nothing should be ruled out as we are entering a twilight zone of political activity...but misreading polls only adds to the chaos. Now, if Trump were to drop below the margin of error from that 47-50 range...hitting 42-43% and holding there for some time...than you would have a genuine measurable effect. As of today, there is no statistical change in the President's approval rating.

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2019, 04:39:34 PM »
Your argument that his approval was actually dropping...as opposed to mere statistical noise showing a normal fluctuation in a daily tracking poll. Tying it in with a "bad news cycle" was clearly an argument to link the two things...or to suggest a linkage. As for ruling things out, virtually nothing should be ruled out as we are entering a twilight zone of political activity...but misreading polls only adds to the chaos. Now, if Trump were to drop below the margin of error from that 47-50 range...hitting 42-43% and holding there for some time...than you would have a genuine measurable effect. As of today, there is no statistical change in the President's approval rating.


The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Online Chosen Daughter

  • For there is no respect of persons with God. Romans 10:12-13
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 9,590
  • Ephesians 6:13 Stand Firm in the face of evil
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2019, 05:40:50 PM »

The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.

If the polls were accurate Donald Trump wouldn't have won.
Winning without problem is just victory , but winning with lots of trouble create History ..

Where are the borders of the State of Israel? – Erdogan to UNGA | 2019
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=erdogan+where+is+Israels+border&&view=detail&mid=EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79&&FORM=VRDGAR

-Erdogan

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2019, 05:44:17 PM »

The same pollster has reflected similar ‘noise,’ as you call it, during the family separation and government shutdown news cycles. I suppose that’s just coincidence.

Not sure what you mean by "reflected. Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made. Or, alternately, just acknowledge that you interpreted the Rasmussen Poll in a way that is patently incorrect. We all make mistakes from time to time, best to just do a mea culpa and move forward with newly gained wisdom.

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2019, 06:19:19 PM »
Not sure what you mean by "reflected. Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made. Or, alternately, just acknowledge that you interpreted the Rasmussen Poll in a way that is patently incorrect. We all make mistakes from time to time, best to just do a mea culpa and move forward with newly gained wisdom.


Conversely, you could try looking at the data, over the appropriate timelines, from the Rasmussen poll, instead of being a condescending bleep.


http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2019, 06:38:59 PM »

Conversely, you could try looking at the data, over the appropriate timelines, from the Rasmussen poll, instead of being a condescending bleep.


http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

That's precisely what I did...with context of how a tracking poll works and what its results actually mean.

Offline edpc

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 14,879
  • Professional Misanthrope - Briefer and Boxer
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2019, 09:36:00 AM »
That's precisely what I did...with context of how a tracking poll works and what its results actually mean.


Funny, because there was a point when the government shutdown was directly tied to the drop in approval rating, by Rasmussen.


Quote
Please cite specific examples in which Rasmussen ignored the explicit meaning of tracking polls and made the same statistically silly argument you've made.


A recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports showed that President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted amid the partial government shutdown.

The Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Monday posted a 43% approval rating for the president, his lowest since January 2018.

It notes: “The president’s overall job approval rating has been falling since his Oval Office address last week calling for enhanced border security and the building of a wall to help stop illegal immigration.”


https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/


There’s your cite, you pompous ass.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline libertybele

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 20,362
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2019, 09:40:35 AM »
If the polls were accurate Donald Trump wouldn't have won.

 :amen:
"I believe in the United States of America as a Government of the people, by the people, for the people; whose just powers are derived from the consent of the governed; a democracy in a republic; a sovereign nation of many sovereign states; a perfect union one and inseparable; established upon those principles of freedom, equality, justice and humanity for which American patriots sacrificed their lives and fortunes. I therefore believe it is my duty to my country to love it; to support its Constitution; to obey it laws; to respect its flag; and to defend it against all enemies." -William Page

Offline Mesaclone

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 2,474
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2019, 12:55:04 PM »

Funny, because there was a point when the government shutdown was directly tied to the drop in approval rating, by Rasmussen.



A recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports showed that President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted amid the partial government shutdown.

The Rasmussen Reports’ daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Monday posted a 43% approval rating for the president, his lowest since January 2018.

It notes: “The president’s overall job approval rating has been falling since his Oval Office address last week calling for enhanced border security and the building of a wall to help stop illegal immigration.”


https://www.aol.com/article/news/2019/01/15/trumps-favorite-poll-shows-his-approval-rating-has-plummeted-amid-shutdown/23642935/


There’s your cite, you pompous ass.

Rasmussen notes consistent shifts in approval over time...or may not a shorter change without attributing greater meaning to it...not a singular or brief shift. So try again, jackass.

Online Chosen Daughter

  • For there is no respect of persons with God. Romans 10:12-13
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 9,590
  • Ephesians 6:13 Stand Firm in the face of evil
Winning without problem is just victory , but winning with lots of trouble create History ..

Where are the borders of the State of Israel? – Erdogan to UNGA | 2019
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=erdogan+where+is+Israels+border&&view=detail&mid=EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79&&FORM=VRDGAR

-Erdogan

Online Chosen Daughter

  • For there is no respect of persons with God. Romans 10:12-13
  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 9,590
  • Ephesians 6:13 Stand Firm in the face of evil
Re: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll...47%
« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2019, 04:31:30 PM »
And if President Trump was focused on his election he would be pointing out the flaws of Elizabeth Warren and her extremist Socialist agenda.  Because the polls show that Warren in the last month (several sets of data points) is polling ahead of Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html

and Trump VS Biden

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html

Trump has slight lead 4 over Biden over the previous set of data which showed Biden with 1.

Why not attack these candidates on their failed policies?

Why not concentrate on the positive changes that Trump is making to benefit the American people.  Like making migrants prove they can provide their own medical insurance and not depend on taxpayers to support their health?  Why not be focusing on the things that Americans need to know.  Like Warren wants everyone to have universal healthcare.  That she wants all financial debt to be payed by American taxpayers.  That Biden wants to take people's guns...…….well maybe Trump does too?

Instead we are mired in investigations and impeachment proceedings.  And I think much of it has to do with Pride and thinking sympathy is the winner.
Winning without problem is just victory , but winning with lots of trouble create History ..

Where are the borders of the State of Israel? – Erdogan to UNGA | 2019
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=erdogan+where+is+Israels+border&&view=detail&mid=EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79EB1A184AFB6EE9199B79&&FORM=VRDGAR

-Erdogan


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf