Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work

[OfTheCross]

The reasons why the Green New Deal won’t really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved.

[1] None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon to produce enough energy in winter.

The world’s energy needs vary, depending on location. In locations near the poles, there will be a significant need for light and heat during the winter months. Energy needs will be relatively more equal throughout the year near the equator.

Solar energy is particularly a problem in winter. In northern latitudes, if utilities want to use solar energy to provide electricity in winter, they will likely need to build several times the amount of solar generation capacity required for summer to have enough electricity available for winter.

nakedcapitalism

A very good list of challenges with the GND

[IsailedawayfromFR]

A very good list of challenges with the GND

The winter one is the kicker.  With the earth cooling off, increasing needs for warmth from energy will be needed.  Solar won't cut it.

[Sanguine]

@OfTheCross, I'm willing to bet that there is no one who posts regularly on this site who already knows the reasons that this "deal" won't work and would be harmful. This is old news and well-understood news. You're not really familiar with conservatism, are you?

[OfTheCross]

@OfTheCross, I'm willing to bet that there is no one who posts regularly on this site who already knows the reasons that this "deal" won't work and would be harmful. This is old news and well-understood news. You're not really familiar with conservatism, are you?

You don't know what Who don't know.

[Free Vulcan]

'Green' energy right now doesn't even crack 20% of generation if I recall, despite windmills and solar panels going up everywhere.

Bottom line is, you can put a coal, nuke, or nat gas plant anywhere, and it will generate it's designed output evenly and continuously.

Alternative energy is completely dependent on siting. There must be wind, sun, water, or geothermal activity to tap to make it work. Which means you got limited areas where there will be any kind of production to meet demand, much less profitable.

Solar energy isn't practical in Seattle, nor wind in Florida, at all. Or hydro in the desert, or geothermal in farm country.

It simply cannot meet the current demand due to the physical limitations, and the green energy people will not deal with that hard truth.

[thackney]

'Green' energy right now doesn't even crack 20% of generation if I recall, despite windmills and solar panels going up everywhere.

Bottom line is, you can put a coal, nuke, or nat gas plant anywhere, and it will generate it's designed output evenly and continuously.

Alternative energy is completely dependent on siting. There must be wind, sun, water, or geothermal activity to tap to make it work. Which means you got limited areas where there will be any kind of production to meet demand, much less profitable.

Solar energy isn't practical in Seattle, nor wind in Florida, at all. Or hydro in the desert, or geothermal in farm country.

It simply cannot meet the current demand due to the physical limitations, and the green energy people will not deal with that hard truth.

In 2018, 28% of global electricity was generated from renewable energy sources, most (96%) of which was produced from hydropower, wind, and solar technologies.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41533

[Free Vulcan]

In 2018, 28% of global electricity was generated from renewable energy sources, most (96%) of which was produced from hydropower, wind, and solar technologies.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41533

Domestic production then I assume is a bit less than that?

[thackney]

Domestic production then I assume is a bit less than that?

Yep, you had it right, under 20%.



https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php

[IsailedawayfromFR]

In 2018, 28% of global electricity was generated from renewable energy sources, most (96%) of which was produced from hydropower, wind, and solar technologies.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41533

As an engineer making projections of production, reserves, prices and costs, I have for many years seen these types of projections.

Most of the time they are flat out wrong as this one is likely to be.

I note the caveats included within report:

The Reference case provides a baseline to measure the impact of alternative assumptions
The Reference case reflects current trends and relationships among supply, demand, and prices in the future. It is a reasonable baseline case to compare with cases that include alternative assumptions about economic drivers, policy changes, or other determinants of the energy system to estimate the potential impact of these assumptions.
• The Reference case includes some anticipated changes over time:
– Expected regional economic and demographic trends, based on the views of leading forecasters
– Planned changes to infrastructure, both new construction and announced retirements
– Assumed incremental cost and performance improvements in known technologies based on historical trends
• This case does not include some of the potential future changes:
– Changes to national boundaries and international agreements
– Major disruptive geopolitical or economic events
– Future technological breakthroughs
– Changes to current policies as reflected in laws, regulations, and stated targets that indicate future
activity


There are so many unknowns for the future, this may be the best shot at guessing, but at the end of the day is still just a guess.

[Joe Wooten]

the green energy people will not deal with that hard truth.

To them, that is a feature, not a bug. Back when I was in college at UT Austin in 1978, I went to a seminar that featured Amory Lovins as the main speaker. The main gist of his talk was that he envisioned killing off at least 80% of all humans with a majority of the rest living as unarmed ignorant serfs in a feudal society scratching out a substitence living with strict population control. They would have small houses with at most 2 or 3 light electric lights. and an electric hot plate No TV, fridge, freezer stereo, or car. They would b crowded together in dense neighborhoods close to their garden plots and farm totally with manual labor. Not even or horse or mule to pull the plows. They would be ruled by a tiny elite who would have all the modern conveniences. Technical educations would be strictly controlled also. all their food production would be pooled together so the elites could take their large portion and ration the rest back to them.

When asked how the power plants - he though mostly solar/wind with natural gas combined cycle all in local grids- would be manned and maintained he stammered, hemmed and hawed and changed the subject. Same thing when asked who would man and maintain the factories to produce the goods for the elites. In reality, he had no answers.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

To them, that is a feature, not a bug. Back when I was in college at UT Austin in 1978, I went to a seminar that featured Amory Lovins as the main speaker. The main gist of his talk was that he envisioned killing off at least 80% of all humans with a majority of the rest living as unarmed ignorant serfs in a feudal society scratching out a substitence living with strict population control. They would have small houses with at most 2 or 3 light electric lights. and an electric hot plate No TV, fridge, freezer stereo, or car. They would b crowded together in dense neighborhoods close to their garden plots and farm totally with manual labor. Not even or horse or mule to pull the plows. They would be ruled by a tiny elite who would have all the modern conveniences. Technical educations would be strictly controlled also. all their food production would be pooled together so the elites could take their large portion and ration the rest back to them.

When asked how the power plants - he though mostly solar/wind with natural gas combined cycle all in local grids- would be manned and maintained he stammered, hemmed and hawed and changed the subject. Same thing when asked who would man and maintain the factories to produce the goods for the elites. In reality, he had no answers.

That sounds like the type of speaker UT Austin would sponsor, coming from another UT grad.

Mine was in English Lit which the prof forced us to read Abbie Hoffman's book.  Revolution for the Hell of It  I made a C in that class.

[Sanguine]

That sounds like the type of speaker UT Austin would sponsor, coming from another UT grad.

Mine was in English Lit which the prof forced us to read Abbie Hoffman's book.  Revolution for the Hell of It  I made a C in that class.

Yes, it does.   However, (another UT grad here) I got to see Victor Davis Hanson talking about the dangers of uncontrolled illegal immigration about 10 years ago.  It wasn't for a class though.

[Joe Wooten]

That sounds like the type of speaker UT Austin would sponsor, coming from another UT grad.

Mine was in English Lit which the prof forced us to read Abbie Hoffman's book.  Revolution for the Hell of It  I made a C in that class.

I was a mechanical engineering major and I had to take a English it class where the lib prof asked everyone on the first day of class what our majors were. No engineering/science/math major got better than a B that semester. Most of us got C's. The whole semester was spent doing Freudian analysis of Shakespeare's poems. A complete waste of time.

[Joe Wooten]

My last semester the LBJ Library sponsored a speech by Henry Kissinger. Several yahoos from the local Maoist club tried to shut it down beforehand and then snuck in and tried screaming at him with bullhorns when he started talking. Back then the campus cops threw them out (Very roughly) after confiscating their bullhorns. Now, they'd probably just stand there and watch.

[Cyber Liberty]

You don't know what Who don't know.

Fortunately TBR is full of learned people from the energy sector, so nobody has to give a crap what you claim to "know."

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I was a mechanical engineering major and I had to take a English it class where the lib prof asked everyone on the first day of class what our majors were. No engineering/science/math major got better than a B that semester. Most of us got C's. The whole semester was spent doing Freudian analysis of Shakespeare's poems. A complete waste of time.

I was a few years before you and recall taking ME Thermodynamics in old Taylor hall.  I know the building must be gone, but I wonder if that old cutaway of (I think) a 57 ford is still around?

[IsailedawayfromFR]

My last semester the LBJ Library sponsored a speech by Henry Kissinger. Several yahoos from the local Maoist club tried to shut it down beforehand and then snuck in and tried screaming at him with bullhorns when he started talking. Back then the campus cops threw them out (Very roughly) after confiscating their bullhorns. Now, they'd probably just stand there and watch.

And I recall taking an evening Chemistry lab on the second floor of the Chemistry building and hearing commotions outside.  What I saw and heard through the open window was a bunch of protestors marching 'He-- No, We Won't Go!'.  The Vietnam war was still going strong.

Sometimes I wonder if it would have been better to be an engineering graduate at A&M.  Then I remember the Aggies I know and their football team, and I get my sanity back.

[Joe Wooten]

I was a few years before you and recall taking ME Thermodynamics in old Taylor hall.  I know the building must be gone, but I wonder if that old cutaway of (I think) a 57 ford is still around?

I don't know. Taylor hall was torn down almost 40 years ago. Most of my classes were in there. Once or twice a year some nutbag group would discover there was a nuclear reactor in the basement and go nuts. In 1977 they laid down in front of all the doors in a protest demanding the reactor be dismantled, blocking all students from entering. After about a 5 minute wait, I loudly said "F$CK IT!! I'm going in and I walked across a four of them stepping down forcefully. Several followed me and the protestors gave up after the campus cops told them essentially, do stupid crap, get stupid punishments. Before they tore down Taylor hall, the reactor was moved out to the Balcones Research Center out on Hwy 183.

Did you have Dr. Brown for thermo? I had him for thermo 1. He was semi retired at that time, and I think he retired fully a few years later. He was the only person I know who could interpolate steam table functions in his head accurate to 5 digits

[thackney]

I was a mechanical engineering major and I had to take a English it class where the lib prof asked everyone on the first day of class what our majors were. No engineering/science/math major got better than a B that semester. Most of us got C's. The whole semester was spent doing Freudian analysis of Shakespeare's poems. A complete waste of time.

The only English class I took at The Ohio State University was technical writing.

[catfish1957]

You don't know what Who don't know.

I have multiple Environmental Degrees, and was in the Environmental Profession for 40 years, I'll venture you know a tad less than me.

Your clamoring for the green agenda is pure bull shit.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I don't know. Taylor hall was torn down almost 40 years ago. Most of my classes were in there. Once or twice a year some nutbag group would discover there was a nuclear reactor in the basement and go nuts. In 1977 they laid down in front of all the doors in a protest demanding the reactor be dismantled, blocking all students from entering. After about a 5 minute wait, I loudly said "F$CK IT!! I'm going in and I walked across a four of them stepping down forcefully. Several followed me and the protestors gave up after the campus cops told them essentially, do stupid crap, get stupid punishments. Before they tore down Taylor hall, the reactor was moved out to the Balcones Research Center out on Hwy 183.

Did you have Dr. Brown for thermo? I had him for thermo 1. He was semi retired at that time, and I think he retired fully a few years later. He was the only person I know who could interpolate steam table functions in his head accurate to 5 digits

I applaud you for not allowing the imbeciles to inhibit your freedom and studies.  Hope you had some pounds on at the time and wore some boots and at least one of them had a bad back for awhile.

And sadly I do not recall who I had for thermo.  It was the first open book final I had ever had in my life and I do remember walking away with an A.  I took it as a freshman (I know, stupid in retrospect) but I was lucky enough to meet a couple of sophomore ME engineers who allowed me into their group to study and do the projects work.  One was a brain who knew all the answers, the other was like me pretty clueless, but he did set me up on a few blind dates which I have found memories of......

@Joe Wooten

[Joe Wooten]

The only English class I took at The Ohio State University was technical writing.

I took that too, and it was a very useful class,  but UT in it's wisdom decided that engineers needed more humanities courses and we all had to take another time/money wasting English lit course.

[Hoodat]

To them, that is a feature, not a bug. Back when I was in college at UT Austin in 1978, I went to a seminar that featured Amory Lovins as the main speaker. The main gist of his talk was that he envisioned killing off at least 80% of all humans with a majority of the rest living as unarmed ignorant serfs in a feudal society scratching out a substitence living with strict population control. They would have small houses with at most 2 or 3 light electric lights. and an electric hot plate No TV, fridge, freezer stereo, or car. They would b crowded together in dense neighborhoods close to their garden plots and farm totally with manual labor. Not even or horse or mule to pull the plows. They would be ruled by a tiny elite who would have all the modern conveniences. Technical educations would be strictly controlled also. all their food production would be pooled together so the elites could take their large portion and ration the rest back to them.

@Joe Wooten

This here is what the game is all about.  Will the Green New Deal really work?  Yes, when one considers what the actual goal is.  It's not a Deal.  It isn't Green.  And it definitely isn't New.  It is simply a matter of seizing complete control over a key factor of production - energy, and then exploiting that control by amplifying its scarcity.

This is what liberals do.  They shape reality based upon what they feel, and then attempt to exert their beliefs upon an unwilling population at gunpoint.  And they always need some big lie to help advance their goal.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

@Joe Wooten

This here is what the game is all about.  Will the Green New Deal really work?  Yes, when one considers what the actual goal is.  It's not a Deal.  It isn't Green.  And it definitely isn't New.  It is simply a matter of seizing complete control over a key factor of production - energy, and then exploiting that control by amplifying its scarcity.

This is what liberals do.  They shape reality based upon what they feel, and then attempt to exert their beliefs upon an unwilling population at gunpoint.  And they always need some big lie to help advance their goal.

And they seek out the indoctrinated and gullible.

Case in point:  talked to a relative today in Austin.  The county election board there is setting up voting stations on the college campuses as well as in the high schools to capture the vote of the kids.

I wonder who they will vote for the Dems or the GOP?