Buried in the Sands of the Ogaden: Lessons from an Obscure Cold War Flashpoint in Africa

[TomSea]

Buried in the Sands of the Ogaden: Lessons from an Obscure Cold War Flashpoint in Africa
Sam Wilkins     September 6, 2019     Commentary

Figure 1: Former Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selaisse

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, once quipped that “SALT [Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty] lies buried in the sands of the Ogaden.” The Ogaden War (1977–1978) between Somalia and Ethiopia upended the Cold War geostrategic balance in the Horn of Africa, and bore tragic consequences for the region that linger today. While many observers associate the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan on Christmas Eve of 1979 with the end of détente, historians now recognize that it was the Soviet intervention in the Ogaden conflict, for American decision-makers like Brzezinski and Carter, that precipitated the end of this era. Three decades later, the Horn is once again a potential flashpoint of global competition — this time between the United States and China.

Examining the Ogaden crisis offers key insights for this new era. First, East African states will remain motivated foremost by domestic considerations and calculations of their own regional interests. Competition among, and within, regional powers in the Horn of Africa will likely continue to transcend the wishes of distant superpowers. However, East African leaders will remain closely attuned to the emerging Sino-American competition and will seek to exploit this dynamic to advance their agendas.

Recent policy pronouncements that seek to place “great power competition” at the center of American interests in Africa risk exacerbating this tendency. Examination of the Cold War in the Horn suggests that such threat-based definitions of American interests will likely cede leverage to regional actors with costly results. Broadly considered, competing with China in Africa should not become an interest in and of itself, detached from how Chinese activities in Africa might actually threaten American security and prosperity. As the tragedy of the Ogaden War illustrates, such a zero-sum approach would be inherently destabilizing, counterproductive to long-term U.S. interests, and ultimately dangerous.

Read more at: https://warontherocks.com/2019/09/buried-in-the-sands-of-the-ogaden-lessons-from-an-obscure-cold-war-flashpoint-in-africa/