Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site

[catfish1957]

One more time for emphasis.  Jimmy Carter allowed the Mullahs back into Iran and NOTHING has been the same in the Middle East since.  And the line under that is that for so long as the Mullahs remain in control of the Iranian government there will be no stability in that region.

People often talk about '68 being the country's low point in the last half of the century. 

That's garbage.  What that feckless POS Carter did to this country in the late '70's wins hands down. 

I remember both. 

[thackney]

Nope.  Not that simple.

We have greatly produced more oil and gas because of a combination of horizontal drilling and staged hydraulic fracturing.

We are a not a net exporter of oil.  We are a net exporter of oil and refined products. 

The reason we are exporting more oil now is the ban on oil exports made under Carter in 1977 was lifted in 2015.

The reason we are exporting more refined products is due to the continued success of US refining capability to expand and the inherent lack of success in other countries to do the same.

Not even with products combined, but it is getting close.

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Not even with products combined, but it is getting close.

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

It was for awhile
U.S. Becomes Net Exporter of Oil, Fuels for First Time in Decades
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-becomes-net-exporter-of-oil-fuels-for-first-time-in-decades-1544128404

[edpc]

How we know Iran attacked Saudi Arabia
by Tom Rogan
 | September 16, 2019 11:49 AM

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-we-know-iran-attacked-saudi-arabia

First, the technical skill required to accurately hit these targets is significantly beyond the proven capability of the Houthis. And the Saudis — with advanced U.S. support — have a large number of advanced radar and ballistic missile tracking capabilities focused on missiles launched from Yemen. They would have detected at least some of these weapons in flight. But as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted on Sunday, there is "no evidence" of a Yemeni launch.


Foreign purchasers don’t get the full capabilities of our military hardware. Also, any system is only as good as the personnel manning it. The military of Saudi Arabia isn’t a merit based system based on competency and performance. Much of the leadership is either composed of the royal family members or those with close ties.

[edpc]

What that feckless POS Carter did to this country in the late '70's wins hands down.

Don’t underrate Clinton. He’s directly responsible for many of the national security problems we have today, when it comes to Iran, North Korea, and China.

[thackney]

It was for awhile
U.S. Becomes Net Exporter of Oil, Fuels for First Time in Decades
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-becomes-net-exporter-of-oil-fuels-for-first-time-in-decades-1544128404

Looks like timing of weekly spike when imports go low and exports go high.  Timing of shipping that cancels out when looking at the monthly data.  Still hard to find matching data.  I wonder if this was preliminary data corrected to not be true?

Weekly U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRNTUS2&f=W

Weekly U.S. Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPNTUS2&f=W

[Bigun]

Don’t underrate Clinton. He’s directly responsible for many of the national security problems we have today, when it comes to Iran, North Korea, and China.

Entirely true but Carter is the guy who opened the door for him in Iran.

[sneakypete]

Beto O'Rourke
@BetoORourke
As President I will not go to war for Saudi Arabia, nor will I let Saudi Arabia dictate our foreign policy.

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1173429569120026624
 
 
Who's that guy?

@TomSea

A guy that is finally right about something,and who is proving that it really IS true that even a broken clock is right twice a day. I personally think he needs a lot of "work" before he thinks and functions as well as a broken clock,though.

[sneakypete]

One more time for emphasis.  Jimmy Carter allowed the Mullahs back into Iran and NOTHING has been the same in the Middle East since.  And the line under that is that for so long as the Mullahs remain in control of the Iranian government there will be no stability in that region.

@Bigun

There is no hope for peace anywhere in the world where a Mullah is left living.

[sneakypete]

Don’t underrate Clinton. He’s directly responsible for many of the national security problems we have today, when it comes to Iran, North Korea, and China.

@edpc

I know this is going to make your head explode,but do NOT dismiss the involvement of the Bush Crime Family with the Clinton Crime Family. They have been in business together since Poppy opened the Chinese-American Chamber of Commerce in China ,with his uncle at the head of it,and with Bubba as the Governor of Arkansas and Bubbette! with a seat on the Wal-Mart Board of Directors. They have been getting a cut of every deal any US company has made with China ever since,and this is why Babs loved the Clinton's so much.

BTW,the Bush family has been involved in treason going all the way back to WW-2,when Prescott Bush Sr was working for the Harriman Bank as an account executive,and was caught and convicted of helping the Nazi's launder money while we were still at war with them.

Know what his punishment was for pleading guilty and taking all the blame away from the Harriman's? He was elected to the US Senate in 1954.

[thackney]

...The estimated 5.7 million barrels a day of lost Saudi oil is the single biggest sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi supply in August 1990 and Iranian output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the International Energy Agency....

...Brent oil, the global benchmark, jumped more than 19% when markets opened Monday. In dollar terms, the nearly $12 a barrel surge was the biggest intraday rise since trading began in 1988. Futures paired those gains to trade up $6.47, or 11%, at $66.69 a barrel as of 6:48 a.m. in London.

“We expect oil to rise by more than 5% in the short term or more than 20% if impact is protracted,” analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. wrote in a note. “But much depends on what Aramco says around how quickly production can be restored.”...



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/saudis-race-to-restore-oil-output-after-crippling-aramco-attack

[TomSea]

Entirely true but Carter is the guy who opened the door for him in Iran.

According to this,  Gary Sick helped formulate this with Iran. I've heard of the guy, I can barely know from where but a household name.

Gary Sick, Portrait of an American Architect of Khomeinism
https://thefreeiranian.org/corruption-in-iran/the-case-of-the-american-architect-of-khomeinism

I think Carter must have brought on that Camp David Peace Agreement. If so, that does seemed to have worked out. Note, I"m not plugging Carter here, this is just how history looks to me. If anyone knows different, I welcome their view.  Egypt, Jordan, Israel, all pretty peaceful since, Israel gave Egypt the Sinai peninsula.

Then, Carter gave away the Panama Canal, big mistake there.

Gary Sick, Discredited but Honored
by Emanuele Ottolenghi  Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2012, pp. 73-79 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/3219/gary-sick

Carter Administration can't be worse than Obama's.

For all we know, if Saudi Arabia wasn't confronting Iran, they'd be confronting ISrael.

[thackney]

Attacks in Saudi Arabia rock oil market
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14039984/attacks-in-saudi-arabia-rock-oil-market
Sep 16th, 2019

...Saudi officials said they expected to be able to restore 1.9 million b/d of production quickly but offered no prediction about when full operations might resume.

Supplemental supply can come from storage and spare production capacity outside Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has about 130 million bbl of oil in storage....

...esides stock withdrawal, supplemental supply also can come from production capacity now idle, especially among other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Eleven OPEC members participate in the agreement to limit production in effect since January 2017.

According to IEA, OPEC members with significant spare capacity are the UAE, 330,000 b/d; Kuwait, 290,000 b/d; and Angola, 150,000 b/d.

August production by Russia, the most important of 10 non-OPEC countries collaborating with OPEC on supply restraint, was, at 11.6 million b/d, nearly 200,000 b/d below a recent high point recorded in October 2018....

[Smokin Joe]

$1.97 in Palestine, Texas

I'd just about kill for those prices. Gas here is $2.69.

[corbe]

I'd just about kill for those prices. Gas here is $2.69.

   It's a COLD Climate tax rebate us Texans get, because we live in this oppressive heat we get cheap Gas. @Smokin Joe

[Smokin Joe]

With no care or empathy for your fellow countryman.... many of whom make their living via either delivering goods or in mobile service industries, not to mention already struggling middle class workers having to go into debt just to gas up their vehicles to get to work...?

Add to that the rising cost of food and other necessities that will result from higher gas prices (to cover the increased costs of producers to consumers).   People at poverty level incomes will be hurt the most.   But you'd be dancing?

Disclaimer:  I worked for oil companies most of my career too.

When The "Tax simplification" eliminated Form 2106 deductions for all but a select few people, that had a greater impact on those who make their living delivering goods and in mobile service industries, unless they are doing so under a LLC. Many 'brands' people deliver for have those employees use their own vehicles, especially in the prepared food delivery business.

The tax code changes cause more pain there than the price, because those employees don't even have the choice to deduct standard mileage rates or actual fuel/oil/repairs/tires and depreciation any more, they have to eat that cost and be taxed on it.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I'd just about kill for those prices. Gas here is $2.69.

Just filled up today in Austin for $1.99 at Sams.  Figured it would be going up some.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

...Brent oil, the global benchmark, jumped more than 19% when markets opened Monday. In dollar terms, the nearly $12 a barrel surge was the biggest intraday rise since trading began in 1988. Futures paired those gains to trade up $6.47, or 11%, at $66.69 a barrel as of 6:48 a.m. in London.

“We expect oil to rise by more than 5% in the short term or more than 20% if impact is protracted,” analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. wrote in a note. “But much depends on what Aramco says around how quickly production can be restored.”...

Yet the price is still far less than what this recent forecast said it would be.  http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,357805.msg1953921.html#msg1953921

Why?  Because the US is pumping more crude, more than thought we could do.

And that is the reason we need to continue shoring up the energy industry by reducing burdens of government interference and opening up more areas of potential supply.

[edpc]

Mike Pence's chief of staff improbably claims Trump's 'locked and loaded' tweet refers to energy independence

After President Trump's tweet that the U.S. is "locked and loaded" following drone attacks on a Saudi Arabia oil site, one White House official is suggesting we take that phrase seriously, but not literally.

Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence's Chief of Staff, claimed Monday in response to questions about Trump's tweet that "locked and loaded is a broad term and talks about the realities that we're all far safer and more secure domestically from energy independence," CNN reports.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/mike-pences-chief-of-staff-improbably-claims-trumps-locked-and-loaded-tweet-refers-to-energy-independence/ar-AAHnKGk


IOW, the president has been talking (tweeting) out of his ass - again. The admin had to get out there to tell us we didn’t actually hear what we thought.