Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site

[Victoria33]

@thackney

The US has enough oil production not to need oil from Saudi Arabia.  Countries France and England, others, cannot exist without Aramco's oil.  Appears it is Iran who sent missiles (not drones) to the Aramco oil production/processing.  Iran has to be stopped or they will do this again at any time.  I am sure we and our allies, including Israel, are developing plans to take out Iran's ability to send missiles.  This will either be a "small" war or "larger" war.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Any surprise US retaliation will be coordinated and executed by the new security advisor, Mike Pounce.

Actually any US involvement will be coordinated with the Saudis and executed on the CIC's instructions.

I have my doubts that the Saudis will be flying sorties with the US Air Force.  I think we'll be behind the scenes augmenting the war machines of SA and other ME nations (sans Israel ... for the same reason the Saudis won't be seen fighting side by side with the US).

[mystery-ak]

Donald Trump Authorizes Release of Strategic Oil Reserves After Attacks on Saudi Oil
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/09/15/donald-trump-authorizes-release-strategic-oil-reserves-after-attacks-saudi-oil/

[Right_in_Virginia]

From yesterday ...

  Donald J. Trump
Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed, in a to-be-determined amount....

....sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied. I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States.


2:55 PM - 15 Sep 2019

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173354645642764289

[thackney]

@thackney

The US has enough oil production not to need oil from Saudi Arabia.  Countries France and England, others, cannot exist without Aramco's oil.  Appears it is Iran who sent missiles (not drones) to the Aramco oil production/processing.  Iran has to be stopped or they will do this again at any time.  I am sure we and our allies, including Israel, are developing plans to take out Iran's ability to send missiles.  This will either be a "small" war or "larger" war.

We still get about 500 thousand barrels a day, but yes, that oil can be replaced.  Easily drawn from Strategic Petroleum Reserve as an immediate replacement.  Plenty of oil for that to long term replace while they make repairs.  And of course, other domestic production currently being export but most of that is light, sweet.  Most of the Saudi oil is sour.

Asia will see a much bigger impact, far larger than Europe, which is still larger than the US.

[Elderberry]

US said to accuse Iran of launching cruise missiles, drones at Saudi oil sites

By TOI staff and AP 9/16/2019

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-said-to-accuse-iran-of-launching-cruise-missiles-drones-at-saudi-oil-sites/

The official claimed that about a dozen cruise missiles and 20 drones were launched from Iran in the attack.

The US government produced satellite photos Sunday showing what officials said were at least 19 points of impact at two Saudi energy facilities, including damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial oil processing plant at Abqaiq. Officials said the photos show impacts consistent with the attack coming from the direction of Iran or Iraq, rather than from Yemen to the south.

The US officials said additional devices, which apparently didn’t reach their targets, were recovered northwest of the facilities and are being jointly analyzed by Saudi and American intelligence.

More at link.

[Right_in_Virginia]

  Donald J. Trump
Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

Remember when Iran shot down a drone, saying knowingly that it was in their “airspace” when, in fact, it was nowhere close. They stuck strongly to that story knowing that it was a very big lie. Now they say that they had nothing to do with the attack on Saudi Arabia. We’ll see?

6:15 AM - 16 Sep 2019

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173586320943456258

[TomSea]

Even if he's a Dem, this is probably correct. There have been a lot of complaints about how the Saudis have run the war in Yemen, even UAE pulled out:

Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT

11/ Bottom line: the Saudis sowed the seeds of this mess. They marginalized the Houthis in the 80s and thru the 2000s wars. They bungled the prosecution of the post 2015 conflict. Houthis/Iranians have blood on their hands too, but the U.S. should not be a part of this disaster.

10/ Over time, a dangerous game of escalating behavior has developed. Saudis kill a bunch of Houthi civilians, then the Houthis launch an attack in Saudi Arabia. The latest attack on the Saudi refinery follows a Saudi attack on Dhamar prison which killed 100 people.

...

5/ In the 2000s, Saudi backed Yemeni governments carried out 6 separate wars against the now rebelling Houthis. Bush opposed most of these wars, believing the anti-Houthi campaigns to be doing more harm than good, especially as the Houthis began to reach out to Iran for help.

...

3/ The Houthis are a group of Shia tribes in northern Yemen who practice a distinct form of Islam called Zaidism. In the 1980s, the Saudis began a campaign to push Sunni Wahabism into Houthi areas, creating massive friction with Houthi communities.
Show this thread

2/ The conflict btwn Saudi Arabia and Yemen roughly dates from the 1932 founding of Saudi Arabia, when the new kingdom took territory from Yemen in a war set off by a border dispute. The Saudis has attempted to influence Yemeni affairs every since.

1/ Okay, in a few tweets I'm going to try to explain what's going on in Yemen today, so you have some knowledge to counter this claim that America needs to bomb Iran because the Houthis bombed Saudi Arabia. It's complicated, but now you need to know.

Full series at: https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT

Debka posted that Houthis did this from Iraq. It's a very coordinated attack.

Out of Yemen, we've heard of famine, cholera as Murphy refers too and a number of bombing strikes hitting civilians. Saudis egged on this strike. The Houthis haven't been doing this for no reason at all.

It is important to note, what the prologue of all this is.

And so we lost about 5% of what the world uses for oil and fairly quickly, the Saudis will be able to restore about a 3rd of that.

[mystery-ak]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Because we have done so well with Energy over the last few years (thank you, Mr. President!), we are a net Energy Exporter, & now the Number One Energy Producer in the World. We don’t need Middle Eastern Oil & Gas, & in fact have very few tankers there, but will help our Allies!

[TomSea]

𝕮𝖍𝖎
🛢️
@chigrl
#China is the largest customer impacted by these events, accounting for 1.7MMbls/d or 24.5% of #Saudi exports. China has been building up strategic reserves and currently has 1,095MMBls of commercial and strategic reserves, enough to cover 644 days of Saudi imports  (Bernstein)

https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1173565610766360576

I think India also gets quite a bit of it... But China?? And that's a bad thing?

Saudi assures India of no oil supply shortage: Oil Min

New Delhi: the world's third-largest oil consumer, will not face any supply disruption after a reduction in production at its No. 2 supplier Saudi Arabia, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday.

https://www.asianage.com/business/economy/160919/saudi-assures-india-of-no-oil-supply-shortage-oil-min.html

[IsailedawayfromFR]

   I'm gonna fill up my 18 gallon tank today @ $2.18, just as a precaution.

$1.97 in Palestine, Texas

[catfish1957]

I know a lot of reports are calling this a refinery but it is not.  It is an oil processing center.  It is not a part of the business making fuels.  It is a chokepoint for getting oil to any market, export or domestic refinery.  The plant has a crude oil processing capacity of more than 7 million b/d.

And it is my experience, that the down time associated with repari of a  pipeline station will substantaily less than it would have been for a refinery. This shutdown may not be as lengthy or impactful as many had estimated

[Idiot]

We still get about 500 thousand barrels a day, but yes, that oil can be replaced.  Easily drawn from Strategic Petroleum Reserve as an immediate replacement.  Plenty of oil for that to long term replace while they make repairs.  And of course, other domestic production currently being export but most of that is light, sweet.  Most of the Saudi oil is sour.

Asia will see a much bigger impact, far larger than Europe, which is still larger than the US.

I heard most of the imported oil goes to the west coast anyway.  Those left coasters don't need no stinkin oil...lol.

[edpc]

  Donald J. Trump
Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

Remember when Iran shot down a drone, saying knowingly that it was in their “airspace” when, in fact, it was nowhere close. They stuck strongly to that story knowing that it was a very big lie. Now they say that they had nothing to do with the attack on Saudi Arabia. We’ll see?

6:15 AM - 16 Sep 2019

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173586320943456258

BFD - he canceled the supposed retaliation strike, because it was ‘disproportionate’ and would result in deaths, when no loss of life occured, with the drone’s destruction. What’s changed?

Also, it’s a bit amusing for him to accuse Iran of sticking to a story that was ‘a very big lie,’ while defending Saudi Arabia. I guess he’s forgotten all about Khashoggi?

[Bigun]

Strikes all in identical areas, that is kind of interesting:



Who's that guy?

If that picture depicts what was hit then it is LPG and not oil which fits with what I know about what happens in Abqaiq.

Unless things have changed radically in the years since I was there, there is no oil refining capability there.

[thackney]

And it is my experience, that the down time associated with repari of a  pipeline station will substantaily less than it would have been for a refinery. This shutdown may not be as lengthy or impactful as many had estimated

This is not a pipeline station.  It is a crude processing facility.  Simple type operation separating oil, gas and water, along with other minor work.

Far less complicated than a refinery, but it is massive, the largest in the world.  Over 5 million barrels per day. 

[TomSea]

I don't think Trump's "lock and load" is in error, it's too bad, some are making political hay of it as if KSA dictates what we do but maybe they could have been expressed better.  He could have said we are watching it closely.

Wendy Acho:

Khamenei and Soleimani, Iran wanted "peace" #JCPOA #IranDeal was
piece of Yemen
piece of Iraq
piece of Syria
piece of Gaza
piece of Lebanon
piece of North Africa
piece of Afghanistan
blackmail Oman
weaken KSA Egypt Jordan Bahrain
—Same goals ISIS/ISIL #40YearsNotANormalCountry

https://twitter.com/Acho_Wendy/status/1172931968125808641

Iran piece deal.
 

It's a joke but is Iran really in North Africa? Afghanistan? That seems to be stretching it a bit.

Pulled this up, not be forgotten:

Iran-linked terrorists caught stockpiling explosives in London
by Zachary Halaschak
 | June 10, 2019 11:01 AM

Just months after signing on to the Iran nuclear deal, authorities in London reportedly discovered that an Iran-linked group was stockpiling tons of the same explosive used in the Oklahoma City bombing.

In 2015, police in London raided four properties associated with the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah and discovered thousands of disposable ice packs filled ammonium nitrate, a chemical used in rudimentary bombs. During the raids, a man in his 40s was arrested, according to the Telegraph.

Despite the gravity of the discovery, the public and lawmakers were kept in the dark about the matter for years as the U.K. continued to support the nuclear deal. During that time there was also a debate whether to label the entirety of Hezbollah, which has support and funding from Iran, as a terrorist group.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/iran-linked-terrorists-caught-stockpiling-explosives-in-london

[thackney]

If that picture depicts what was hit then it is LPG and not oil which fits with what I know about what happens in Abqaiq.

Unless things have changed radically in the years since I was there, there is no oil refining capability there.

This facility typically separates oil, gas and water.  They probably also take some basic cuts getting the natural gas liquids separated from the gas and/or condensates.  I had similar thoughts as we have similar tanks at our Natural Gas Liquids terminal.

[Bigun]

This is not a pipeline station.  It is a crude processing facility.  Simple type operation separating oil, gas and water, along with other minor work.

Far less complicated than a refinery, but it is massive, the largest in the world.  Over 5 million barrels per day.

IIRC there are several GOSPs (Gas /Oil Separation Plants) and some LPG processing in Abqiaq along with the associated pipelines.  No Oil refining at all.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

With no care or empathy for your fellow countryman.... many of whom make their living via either delivering goods or in mobile service industries, not to mention already struggling middle class workers having to go into debt just to gas up their vehicles to get to work...?

Add to that the rising cost of food and other necessities that will result from higher gas prices (to cover the increased costs of producers to consumers).   People at poverty level incomes will be hurt the most.   But you'd be dancing?

Disclaimer:  I worked for oil companies most of my career too.

That logic of yours won't cut it.

Take that another way say, in any healthcare worker who make their living when people are sick becoming unemployed as people are too healthy.

[edpc]

It's a joke but is Iran really in North Africa? Afghanistan? That seems to be stretching it a bit.

It’s no joke. Iran has been attempting to spread their influence, throughout the region. Many of the more deadly IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan were explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), supplied by Iran.


The Islamist PJD party in Morocco warned recently of a “sectarian Shia invasion;” the Grand Mufti of Mauritania called on his country’s leaders to resist the “rising Shia tide.” One North African government minister I interviewed denounced “the intrusion of Shiism through social media, university dormitories, high schools and even qur’anic schools,” concluding gravely, “I ask myself whether the Persians want to dominate the Arab world.”

After Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Bahrein, is North Africa the next realm of a more assertive Iranian foreign policy? These fears come from Iran’s attempt to expand its influence in Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia – and its “backyard:” Senegal, Niger, Guinea and Mali.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171027-in-sunni-north-africa-fears-of-irans-shiite-shadow/


At least 500 U.S. military deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan were directly linked to Iran and its support for anti-American militants — a newly disclosed statistic that offers grim context for the Obama administration's diplomatic deal with the Iranian regime aimed at curtailing the rogue nation's nuclear ambitions.

[snip]

Scores of American personnel were killed or maimed by highly lethal bombs, known as explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, that Iran manufactured and supplied to Shiite militias across the border in Iraq. Many EFPs were powerful enough to destroy U.S. Humvees and breach tank hulls.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2015/07/14/iran-linked-to-deaths-of-500-u-s-troops-in-iraq-afghanistan/

[IsailedawayfromFR]

----------------------------------
We are a net exporter of both oil and LNG because of two technological breakthroughs:
* the development of hydraulic fracturing of shale, using liquids rather than explosives and
* the development of both diagonal and horizontal drilling techniques.
Both occurred around 1947 when Trump was 1 years old!!!!!

Nope.  Not that simple.

We have greatly produced more oil and gas because of a combination of horizontal drilling and staged hydraulic fracturing.

We are a not a net exporter of oil.  We are a net exporter of oil and refined products. 

The reason we are exporting more oil now is the ban on oil exports made under Carter in 1977 was lifted in 2015.

The reason we are exporting more refined products is due to the continued success of US refining capability to expand and the inherent lack of success in other countries to do the same.

[TomSea]

It’s no joke. Iran has been attempting to spread their influence, throughout the region. Many of the more deadly IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan were explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), supplied by Iran.


The Islamist PJD party in Morocco warned recently of a “sectarian Shia invasion;” the Grand Mufti of Mauritania called on his country’s leaders to resist the “rising Shia tide.” One North African government minister I interviewed denounced “the intrusion of Shiism through social media, university dormitories, high schools and even qur’anic schools,” concluding gravely, “I ask myself whether the Persians want to dominate the Arab world.”

After Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Bahrein, is North Africa the next realm of a more assertive Iranian foreign policy? These fears come from Iran’s attempt to expand its influence in Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia – and its “backyard:” Senegal, Niger, Guinea and Mali.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171027-in-sunni-north-africa-fears-of-irans-shiite-shadow/


At least 500 U.S. military deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan were directly linked to Iran and its support for anti-American militants — a newly disclosed statistic that offers grim context for the Obama administration's diplomatic deal with the Iranian regime aimed at curtailing the rogue nation's nuclear ambitions.

[snip]

Scores of American personnel were killed or maimed by highly lethal bombs, known as explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, that Iran manufactured and supplied to Shiite militias across the border in Iraq. Many EFPs were powerful enough to destroy U.S. Humvees and breach tank hulls.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2015/07/14/iran-linked-to-deaths-of-500-u-s-troops-in-iraq-afghanistan/

Thanks, very useful answer. That's how we learn.

[mystery-ak]

How we know Iran attacked Saudi Arabia
by Tom Rogan
 | September 16, 2019 11:49 AM

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-we-know-iran-attacked-saudi-arabia

[Bigun]

One more time for emphasis.  Jimmy Carter allowed the Mullahs back into Iran and NOTHING has been the same in the Middle East since.  And the line under that is that for so long as the Mullahs remain in control of the Iranian government there will be no stability in that region.