Author Topic: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site  (Read 3586 times)

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Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2019, 06:40:21 pm »


Problem is he fired his (alter ego), the Iran Slapper, last week.

That honestly makes as much sense as anything.... luckily, Bolton's right hand man is still there.

Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2019, 06:41:45 pm »


Problem is he fired his (alter ego), the Iran Slapper, last week.

Thank God he did.

We can support the use of retaliatory force by Saudi Arabia --- we can even arm them.  But it's their oil wells, their neighborhood, their fight.


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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2019, 10:22:32 pm »
Crude opens up $8/barrel.
The Republic is lost.

Offline libertybele

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2019, 11:48:17 pm »
   I'm gonna fill up my 18 gallon tank today @ $2.18, just as a precaution.

$2.18???   $2.34 is the cheapest around here.
Romans 12:16-21

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Offline TomSea

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US ‘locked and loaded’ after attacks on Saudi Arabia, says Trump
« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2019, 12:26:18 am »
Quote
US ‘locked and loaded’ after attacks on Saudi Arabia, says Trump

The United States believes it knows who was behind the attacks on Saudi oil facilities and is “locked and loaded,” but is waiting for verification and for a Saudi assessment of responsibility before deciding how to proceed, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday.

“Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!” Trump said on Twitter.

Saudi oil attacks show Iran to blame, say US officials

The scope and precision of drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities show they were launched from a west-northwest direction rather than from Yemen to the south, where Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, senior US administration officials said on Sunday.

Read more at: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2019/09/16/Scope-precision-of-Saudi-oil-attacks-show-Iran-to-blame-say-US-officials.html

I'd like to think we have incontrovertible proof that Iran did it... but I doubt it.  If there is that proof, yes, the Saudis need to act.





Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #30 on: September 16, 2019, 01:19:05 am »
Error 404 (Not Found)!!1

Quote
Joyce Karam
@Joyce_Karam
NEW: US Gov Declassified images of #Saudi Aramco Facilities attacked
• At least 19 points impacted
• High accuracy
• Attack inconsistent with weapon coming thru Yemen but Iran (via Iraq) HT @FirasMaksad




https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1173332196595261440

Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #31 on: September 16, 2019, 01:33:14 am »
Quote
Photos released by Trump administration show extent of weekend attack on Saudi oil industry. US officials say evidence now pointing towards cruise missile attacks from Iraq or Iran, not drone strikes from Houthis in Yemen. But no official assessments yet from DC or Riyadh.


https://twitter.com/DionNissenbaum/status/1173325850323890178

Cruise missiles NOT drones, this could really change the complexion of things, if they've got the evidence.  I haven't heard this anywhere else.

There must be a lot of data they can study, this is significant info if so.

Offline edpc

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2019, 01:37:07 am »
Attack inconsistent with weapon coming thru Yemen but Iran


I’m guessing the attack was probably carried out by Iran and with equipment built based upon the US RQ-170 drone captured in 2011.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2019, 01:49:28 am by edpc »
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #33 on: September 16, 2019, 01:40:57 am »
debka.com (Israeli source not always dependable) has this as Cruise Missiles from Iraq but I think they are getting this info elsewhere:

Quote
US intel suspects Iranian cruise missiles hit Saudi oil facilities from Iraq base
Sep 15, 2019 @ 21:05 Iran strikes Saudi oil from Iraq, Israel, Trump administration


US intelligence experts are studying satellite images and other video evidence to track the source in Iraq of the major attack on key Saudi oil facilities on Saturday, Sept. 14. Their first discovery was that cruise missiles rather than drones struck the Saudi oil refineries at Abqaiq, the largest in the world, and its second largest oil field at Khurais – both in the kingdom’s Eastern Provinces. They have also confirmed that the missiles were launched from a pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite militia base, despite Baghdad’s denials.

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that the investigation is also using video coverage by local Saudis showing multiple cruise missiles coming from the north and heading across the border towards the targeted locations in eastern Saudi Arabia. On one, a missile was clearly shown flying over the main border crossing at Hafar al-Batin and shot down by a Saudi air defense missile, although Saudi officials, in reporting the attack – large and disruptive enough to reduce the kingdom’s oil production by five million barrels a day, nearly half its output – have said nothing about intercepting any offensive projectiles. The two images carried at the top of this item show the wreckage of Iranian cruise missiles shot down near the Abqaiq processing plant.

The attack represented a major spike in Iranian aggression against Saudi Arabia. Its import is shattering enough strategically to challenges Washington and Riyadh for a response in kind, namely a strike at Iran’s oil processing plants. The US and Saudi Arabia both possess the military resources for a comparable reprisal against Iran and will find it hard to evade this challenge.

More: https://www.debka.com/us-intel-suspects-iranian-cruise-missiles-hit-saudi-oil-facilities-from-iraq-base/

So, that's why Iraq issued a denial, I had heard nothing about this, just some basics... most of the press stories still say "drones".

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #34 on: September 16, 2019, 01:51:08 am »
If this was truly originated by Iran, then as the saying goes, sh** just got real.
The Republic is lost.

Offline edpc

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2019, 01:58:59 am »
Thank God he did.

We can support the use of retaliatory force by Saudi Arabia --- we can even arm them.  But it's their oil wells, their neighborhood, their fight.


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

5:50 PM · Sep 15, 2019·Twitter for iPhone



Yeah – I can’t wait to hear you do a 180 and justify action, if we take it, based upon this tweet.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Absalom

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2019, 01:59:37 am »
Saudi Arabia spends a large percentage of GDP on military hardware, but their forces are inept, due to the nepotism and favoritism, within the leadership and royal family connections. Iran is using Yemeni rebels as proxies to test this method in the event of conflict with Israel or the US. There was way too much coordination and precision for it to be a group of rebels, acting alone.
--------------------------
Intuitive and perceptive.

Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2019, 02:02:47 am »
If this was truly originated by Iran, then as the saying goes, sh** just got real.

Quote
  Donald J. Trump
Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

3:50 PM - 15 Sep 2019


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173368423381962752

Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2019, 02:07:15 am »
   I'm gonna fill up my 18 gallon tank today @ $2.18, just as a precaution.

Quote
  Donald J. Trump
Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed, in a to-be-determined amount....

....sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied. I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States.


2:55 PM - 15 Sep 2019


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1173354645642764289

Offline Absalom

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2019, 02:47:29 am »
And we can thank President Trump that the United States is a net exporter of oil today.     :yowsa:
----------------------------------
We are a net exporter of both oil and LNG because of two technological breakthroughs:
* the development of hydraulic fracturing of shale, using liquids rather than explosives and
* the development of both diagonal and horizontal drilling techniques.
Both occurred around 1947 when Trump was 1 years old!!!!!

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Drone Strike Cuts Saudi Oil Production In Half
« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2019, 07:23:02 am »
Hate to tell you, but I am  retired from an oil company (32 years), and $4/gallon gas would have me dancing in the streets.
Yeah, when gas was $4+ I could afford it.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #41 on: September 16, 2019, 07:55:10 am »
----------------------------------
We are a net exporter of both oil and LNG because of two technological breakthroughs:
* the development of hydraulic fracturing of shale, using liquids rather than explosives and
* the development of both diagonal and horizontal drilling techniques.
Both occurred around 1947 when Trump was 1 years old!!!!!
The Bakken boom was well under way long before Trump took office (GWB administration), and persisted in spite of Obama, partly because the majority of Bakken/Three Forks development is on private land, and privately owned mineral rights.
I was working Bakken wells in Elm Coulee Field (MT) in 2000, and later in North Dakota, where the boom became big news about 2006. Our big problem was one of takeaway capacity, and while everyone hoped the Keystone XL pipeline would alleviate some of that, it's still being stonewalled in the courts.

Another pipeline, the Dakota Access Pipe Line (DAPL) had run afoul of not only the usual ecowhackos but the Obama Administration as well, and later the "Water Protectors" of the Standing Rock Sioux, who hoped to extract money to shut up after the company building the pipeline decided they could go around the reservation cheaper than cut across a corner of it. That protest caught fire in the news, attracting the radical enviros, Hollywood types, and the whole protest thing got out of hand, especially for a pipeline that didn't pass through tribal land and had over 100 minor reroutes to preserve 'cultural resources', a euphemism for 'any place someone might have camped out' back when.
When the protests were shut down, the water protectors only left behind some 720 semi loads of trash and debris, a human body in one of the creeks, and millions of dollars in damages to public and private property.

What Trump did do:
Stopped the stonewalling on the completion of the DAPL (allowing over 500,000 BOPD to exit the Williston Basin on its way to refineries by pipeline, once completed). Consider that is only a fraction of the 1.4 million barrels of oil produced in the State daily, the rest must leave by train or truck, and other pipelines would help. They are in the works, and this administration is more likely to permit infrastructure to be built than the previous one.

The development of horizontal drilling methods that allowed 9500 ft. or more of a target zone to be opened up that would only have been 20 ft. thick in a single vertical wellbore is the tech that made that boom possible. Hydraulic fracturing went hand in hand with that tech, but no one ever used explosives to frac a horizontal well here, only to perforate liners and casing.

The things involved were:
MWD technology to get survey data to surface in a few minutes instead of a couple of hours, and tools to provide continuous gamma ray readings for navigation, geologically.
Mud motors which were more reliable and durable.
Bit technology which could survive the demands of being run at speeds of 120+ RPM in often abrasive environments, for days on end.
(Specifically, PDC bits which could survive in carbonate formations and siliciclastics. )
Top drive rigs (as opposed to Kelly Rigs) and changes in drilling techniques which saved time.
Later, walking rigs which could move from wellhead to wellhead on a multi well production pad without being dismantled.

I worked my first horizontal well with MWD in 1990, a lot later than 1947, although the tech we used was used in the 80s.
Consider we were using the 'cutting edge' laptops and desktop computers available then, commonly running Windows 3.11 or 95 or 98SE. Now you can almost do more faster with a decent smart phone.
While there were directional drilling techniques prior to the development of MWD tools (which required computer development only dreamed of in the 40s), they used mechanical or film type survey tools which required a considerable wait as the tools were sent to bottom and extracted on wirelines inside the drill pipe before drilling could proceed. Drilling a directional or horizontal well back then was an expensive proposition, today the frac job costs more than the hole.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline TomSea

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Iraqi prime minister receives phone call from U.S. secretary of state
« Reply #42 on: September 16, 2019, 11:20:14 am »
Quote
Iraqi prime minister receives phone call from U.S. secretary of state
by Mohammed Ebraheem       Sep 16, 2019, 12:20 pm


Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi has received a phone call from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday, his office said in a brief statement on Monday.

Abdul Mahdi’s office did not specify what was discussed in the phone call.

Read more at: https://www.iraqinews.com/features/iraqi-prime-minister-receives-phone-call-from-u-s-secretary-of-state/



Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #43 on: September 16, 2019, 11:24:18 am »
That's the thing, where the refinery was hit came from the North, Yemen is to the South. They are sizing up the "impact" points.
Quote
One official said there were 19 points of impact on the targets and the attacks had come from a west-north-west direction - not Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, which lies to the south-west of the Saudi oil facilities.

...

Officials quoted by the New York Times said a mix of drones and cruise missiles might have been deployed,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49712417

Offline TomSea

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #44 on: September 16, 2019, 12:13:15 pm »
Quote
Kuwait says it's probing drone sighting, working with Riyadh
Thomson Reuters Foundation

DUBAI, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Kuwait is investigating the sighting of a drone over its territory and coordinating with Saudi Arabia and other countries after Saturday's attacks on Saudi oil plants, the cabinet said on Sunday.

"The security leadership has started the necessary investigations over the sighting of a drone over the coastline of Kuwait City and what measures were taken to confront it," the cabinet said on Twitter account.

It said Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah directed military and security officers to tighten security at vital installations in the Gulf OPEC producer and to take all necessary measures "to protect Kuwait's security".

http://news.trust.org/item/20190915145937-8xvxw

Again, a possible indication the attack did not come from the South but the North, on top of that, we are in Iraq, if it could have come from there. Making things hotter to begin with.

No endorsement here, just some tweets to see what people are thinking:
Quote
Tulsi Gabbard
@TulsiGabbard
.@realDonaldTrump
 

Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not "America First."

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
 Â· 13h
Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!


https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1173434704302751744

Quote
Glenn Kirschner
@glennkirschner2
·
18m
Strange, indeed. How is it that 10 drones in a coordinated attack could not be detected and stopped by Saudi Arabia’s defenses? Was this an oil-price manipulation by Saudi Arabia? Before any investigation was conducted, before any reliable evidence was developed . . .

Quote
BLACKSTEM Global
💡
🔬
🌼
@BLACKSTEMUSA
 Â· 46m
Replying to @glennkirschner2
We think there's something strange about this Saudi attack. People are jumping on the bandwagon that Iran attacked the oli storage w/out a single piece of evidence. Drone experts haven't definitively said what path was flown to attack. No one has explained anything.


https://twitter.com/glennkirschner2/status/1173564139236728837

Strikes all in identical areas, that is kind of interesting:



Quote
Beto O'Rourke
@BetoORourke
As President I will not go to war for Saudi Arabia, nor will I let Saudi Arabia dictate our foreign policy.


https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1173429569120026624

Who's that guy?


Offline thackney

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2019, 12:15:54 pm »
And we can thank President Trump that the United States is a net exporter of oil today.     :yowsa:


We are an exporter of oil and oil products.  We are NOT a NET exporter of oil, or of oil and oil products.

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=M

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Offline thackney

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2019, 12:16:03 pm »
----------------------------------
We are a net exporter of both oil and LNG because of two technological breakthroughs:
* the development of hydraulic fracturing of shale, using liquids rather than explosives and
* the development of both diagonal and horizontal drilling techniques.
Both occurred around 1947 when Trump was 1 years old!!!!!

We are an exporter of oil and oil products.  We are NOT a NET exporter of oil, or of oil and oil products.

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=M

@Absalom
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Offline edpc

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2019, 12:27:00 pm »
Any surprise US retaliation will be coordinated and executed by the new security advisor, Mike Pounce.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline thackney

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2019, 12:31:05 pm »
That's the thing, where the refinery was hit came from the North, Yemen is to the South. They are sizing up the "impact" points.

I know a lot of reports are calling this a refinery but it is not.  It is an oil processing center.  It is not a part of the business making fuels.  It is a chokepoint for getting oil to any market, export or domestic refinery.  The plant has a crude oil processing capacity of more than 7 million b/d.

A refinery would have a smaller impact to the global market than this oil processing center.



SAUDI ARABIA
Overview
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=SAU
then scroll down to:
Petroleum and other liquid fuels
Oil processing
Refining and petrochemicals

There are no refineries in Abqaiq.  Abqaiq is the world's largest oil processing facility and crude oil stabilization plant.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2019, 12:32:04 pm by thackney »
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Offline thackney

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Re: Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site
« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2019, 12:35:10 pm »
Aramco now focused on restoring production
http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/577398/SAUDI-ARABIA/Aramco-now-focused-on-restoring-production

...The latest attacks on the Kingdom's oil facilities in the Eastern Province resulted in the halt of an estimated 5.7 million barrels of crude oil supplies, or about 50 percent of Aramco’s production, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman said on Sunday.

The attacks also caused a halt in associated gas production of about two billion cubic feet per day, he confirmed in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency....
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