Author Topic: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?  (Read 1178 times)

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Offline TomSea

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What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« on: August 06, 2019, 03:11:37 pm »
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What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?

A controversial book about Japan’s race to build an atomic weapon in 1945 is published there for the first time. It also raises questions about how North Korea finally got a bomb.
Jake Adelstein
Mari Yamamoto


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Wilcox makes a case that Japan successfully detonated an atomic device close to what was then called Konan, Korea, on or about August 12, 1945, which is to say six days after Hiroshima was bombed on August 6, killing over 90,000 civilians, and three days after the Nagasaki bomb that killed at least 40,000 people on August 9.  Japan’s decision to accept unconditional surrender on August 15, according to Wilcox, came after its own test and, perhaps, the realization that it was too late to respond in kind.

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Plans to Bomb the U.S.

There are many here who still have no idea Japan was building its own atomic bomb—and almost succeeded—but was too late. The United States was almost too late learning that fact as well.
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To make matters worse, by the end of 1945 the Soviets—who did not yet have an atomic bomb—had occupied much of Korea north of the 38th parallel and the plant where the Japanese atom bomb had been developed was under their control.

 
The author seems to wonder if the modern North Korean nuclear weapon program could have had some connections to the Japanese occupation during World War II. Pretty interesting speculation on this aspect at least.

It appears this book has been around since 1995 but is just now, being published in Japanese!

Pretty interesting, of course, the Nazis too, were in this arms race.


« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 03:15:14 pm by TomSea »

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2019, 03:20:11 pm »
Very interesting.  Looks like the only thing stopping them was a lack of enriched uranium.

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On May 19, 1945, a Nazi submarine was captured and discovered to be delivering 1,200 pounds of uranium oxide to the Japanese military. The vessel was dispatched for Japan shortly after Adolf Hitler committed suicide, a time when the Germans wanted to dispose of their large amounts of uranium. Two Japanese officers were aboard the submarine; both committed suicide upon being captured.
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Online mountaineer

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2019, 10:18:05 pm »
I don't know, but I do think about the fact that our developing the bomb first meant that we didn't have to invade Japan - which was in the works. My late f-i-l, who trained bombadiers in Texas during the war, was slated to take part in the coming invasion. After the bomb dropped, he came home intact instead of in a body bag.
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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2019, 02:01:49 am »
I don't know, but I do think about the fact that our developing the bomb first meant that we didn't have to invade Japan - which was in the works. My late f-i-l, who trained bombadiers in Texas during the war, was slated to take part in the coming invasion. After the bomb dropped, he came home intact instead of in a body bag.

Indeed.  My fil’s older brother was aboard a troop ship and would have been in the first wave of any invasion force.  He’d already made three other beach landings.   The bombs almost certainly saved his life.

Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2019, 03:05:59 am »


This is my favorite non-fiction, and perhaps favorite of all, book.  Part of it might be a little bit of a grind for those who aren't that interested in the science aspects, but if you're into the question of what could have happened, it's worth slogging through.  Without giving too much away, a couple extermely significant events in history overlapped, and the world could have been very different, very easily, which is what I found most fascinating.
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2019, 03:45:10 pm »
My father was wounded on Okinawa after 45 days in combat, and was taken to Honolulu to recover.

He was in Hawaii when the first bomb was dropped. He would have been among those to invade Japan's main island.

To consider how the US might have been treated, one need only look to China and Korea.

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Online rustynail

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2019, 04:13:33 pm »

"What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First? "
Take the hit and then kill them all.

Offline PeteS in CA

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Re: What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First?
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2019, 05:13:09 pm »
"What If, in World War II, Japan Got the Atomic Bomb First? "
Take the hit and then kill them all.

I'm not into alt-history, but in July, 1945, Japan's military was a very thin empty shell. It's aircraft carriers, plus or minus one merely incapacitated, were all sunk. Likewise its battleships, cruisers, and even destroyers, pretty much. Japan's longest-range bomber was the Mitsubishi G4M Betty twin engine bomber, basically a medium bomber. The Betty probably lacked the carrying capacity - weight or size - to carry an atomic bomb (IIRC, the Enola Gay and/or Bock's Car had to be modified the carry their A-bombs).

But pretending it did, then what? With its limited range, at most it might take out all or a large part of Task Force 58 (or 38, depending on who was in command). The Betty was known for being very vulnerable to damage, so its chance of getting through would not be very good.

But pretending it did, then what? B-29s from the Marianas and China would continue reducing Japan from rubble to dust. Including the Enola Gay and Bock's Car. If Okinawa was close enough, B-17s and/or B-24s could be transferred from Europe and raid Kyushu and possibly southern Honshu.

While not as capable as the CV and CVL fleet carriers, there would have been enough CVEs, DDs, and DEs, escort carriers, destroyers, and destroyer escorts, to do much of what TF58 did for a good number of months, Especially areas of Japan beyond the range of Army bombers.

Until more Essex class and the Midway class carriers came into commission along with more Iowas, and the CAs, CL, and DDs from the Atlantic formed a new fast carriers force.

And in submarines, the USN's Tench class boats were coming into commission, replacing retiring pre-Gato class boats, and maybe even bringing about the retirement of some of the Gato class, whose test depth was not as deep as the Balao and Tench class.

All in all, I think Japan getting THE BOMB would have delayed its surrender maybe a year. And ignoring Allied casualties, the extra Japanese casualties would have been hundreds of thousands, probably topping a million. "Making the Yankee" extra "cranky" would have been way more costly than what happened in real life.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 05:22:44 pm by PeteS in CA »
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