I think the political movement within the Black community is a combination of younger Black Americans looking for real change and the President's outreach. Black Americans (finally) have a Republican/Conservative talking with them without pandering, without speaking AT them; while proving he is serious about bringing positive change for their individual lives.
I think the timing of these two forces coming together is remarkable....and makes a real shift in AA voting patterns possible.
We shall find out soon enough.
I think there is a fundamental problem in attracting AA votes. The AA community views a strong centralized govt. as the only answer to whatever problems they face. I think there is a historical basis for this mindset. Slavery was ended by a strong federal govt. Jim Crow was ended by a strong federal govt. Desegregation, affirmative action, civil rights voting acts are all a product of a strong federal govt. Also, a very high percentage of the AA middle class are employed by govt.
The Pub party, which is responsible for most of the big steps forward for AA's, is the party of limited govt and individual liberty. AA community is collectivist in their view and want a strong federal govt with centralized powers. I don't think the power and prosperity of individual liberty and limited govt has penetrated the AA community to any great degree.