Author Topic: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}  (Read 1236 times)

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Offline thackney

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Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« on: July 22, 2019, 01:45:31 pm »
Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019
http://www.alaskajournal.com/2019-06-26/sub-500-taps-throughput-drops-2019
06/26/2019

Measured on the state calendar, Alaska North Slope oil production is about to be at its lowest level since the first days after startup of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System.

North Slope crude production averaged 499,103 barrels per day through June 24 for the 2019 state fiscal year, which ends June 30. The last time North Slope wells pumped that little oil was 1977 when oil first started flowing through TAPS in late June; production averaged 10,500 barrels per day in 1977, according to Revenue Department figures.

It jumped to 789,600 barrels per day in 1978 and peaked at 2.1 million per day in 1988.

Daily North Slope production dipped to about 501,000 barrels per day in 2015 but that was followed by two years of increases, which were celebrated by industry and state officials, as it was the first instance of production growth on the North Slope since 2002.

The 499,103-barrel average for 2019 is unlikely to improve much in the last days of the month as the combination of warm weather and scheduled maintenance makes summer the least productive season for companies on the Slope.

State production analysts in the Department of Natural Resources expected the average daily throughput to decline in their latest projection, but not this much. The Spring 2019 Revenue Forecast released in March pegged fiscal 2019 North Slope production at 511,460 barrels per day. Actual production has been off by about 2.4 percent....
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 06:23:49 pm »
Wonder what is the economic breakeven point to keep the pipeline active?

Must be high.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2019, 06:52:55 pm »
Wonder what is the economic breakeven point to keep the pipeline active?

Must be high.

I think the bigger problem is expected to be cooling of the oil with the slow flow.  Combined with the Refinery at the North Pole is no longer injecting heat.

The headache of low oil flow in TAPS
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/717255628.shtml
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 06:54:36 pm by thackney »
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Offline rustynail

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2019, 06:57:19 pm »
Will the places Trump opened come on line in time to save the pipeline?

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2019, 07:02:11 pm »
I think the bigger problem is expected to be cooling of the oil with the slow flow.  Combined with the Refinery at the North Pole is no longer injecting heat.

The headache of low oil flow in TAPS
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/717255628.shtml
Isn't that just a function of installing periodic heating elements along the line, hence back to economics?
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Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2019, 07:07:18 pm »
Isn't that just a function of installing periodic heating elements along the line, hence back to economics?

Of course you are right.  It all revolves around economics.  The slow flow greatly increases that problem.  They are also at or approaching the point where an upset that stops the flow in winter will prevent it from restarting until it is warmer.  More info at:

http://www.finebergresearch.com/pdf/april2011oiltaxreport(rev).pdf
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Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2019, 07:11:18 pm »
Will the places Trump opened come on line in time to save the pipeline?

What place did he open?

National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska (NPRA) had been opened for a while before Trump.  Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) may finally get opened for bids on exploration but isn't there yet.  Some of the offshore still is in Court limbo, others already opened.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2019, 07:27:51 pm »
Will the places Trump opened come on line in time to save the pipeline?
The time periods involved in opening up new areas for exploration, getting seismic, new wells then development and finally production in a place like the Artic are truly staggering.  Likely a decade or more.

To give you an idea of cost for one of them, albeit a very expensive one, my former company participated in Mukluk.  The cost of a single well was $1.5 billion, with the drilling pad alone being $100 million because an island had to be built.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/20/Sohio-abandons-15-billion-Mukluk-well/8135443422800/

Perhaps this was what you were referring to on activity in the Artic.  http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,350008.0.html
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 07:29:04 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
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Offline rustynail

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2019, 07:32:40 pm »
Thank you, IsailedawayfromFR.

Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2019, 07:58:18 pm »
The time periods involved in opening up new areas for exploration, getting seismic, new wells then development and finally production in a place like the Artic are truly staggering.  Likely a decade or more.

To give you an idea of cost for one of them, albeit a very expensive one, my former company participated in Mukluk.  The cost of a single well was $1.5 billion, with the drilling pad alone being $100 million because an island had to be built.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/20/Sohio-abandons-15-billion-Mukluk-well/8135443422800/

Perhaps this was what you were referring to on activity in the Artic.  http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,350008.0.html

In an area without existing infrastructure 10 years from exploration well to production pad is realistic on the North Slope.  Add in the time needed past the decision to allow exploration, getting it in a 5 year program to auction, bid cycle and time to set aside funding to begin exploration it can approach 20 years from the politician approval to oil flowing.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2019, 08:16:40 pm »
Isn't that just a function of installing periodic heating elements along the line, hence back to economics?

I found some more stuff I found interesting and thought I would share.  They already are doing significant heating along the way.

As throughput declines, so does the
rate at which crude oil flows through
TAPS to Valdez.
– 4.5 day transit time in 1988
– 18 day transit time in 2018



https://www.alyeska-pipe.com/assets/uploads/pagestructure/TAPS_FlowAssurance_Overview/editor_uploads/Flow%20Assurance%20PP%20Jan%202019.pdf

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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2019, 12:03:56 pm »
I found some more stuff I found interesting and thought I would share.  They already are doing significant heating along the way.

As throughput declines, so does the
rate at which crude oil flows through
TAPS to Valdez.
– 4.5 day transit time in 1988
– 18 day transit time in 2018



https://www.alyeska-pipe.com/assets/uploads/pagestructure/TAPS_FlowAssurance_Overview/editor_uploads/Flow%20Assurance%20PP%20Jan%202019.pdf
Must be a viscosity chart vs temperature for that crude type somewhere to see the critical point of flow.  Know what it is?
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Offline thackney

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2019, 12:27:39 pm »
Must be a viscosity chart vs temperature for that crude type somewhere to see the critical point of flow.  Know what it is?

I have not found that chart, but a better description of the oil blend traveling in TAPS.  The blend has become lighter as Alpine and other NPRA fields have come online are light to very light gravity.

Review of the North Slope Oil Properties
 Relevant to Environmental Assessment and Prediction
http://www.pwsrcac.org/wp-content/uploads/filebase/board_meetings/2010-09-16/4_05_attachment_a.pdf

I think the main problem with ANS is the temperature point where wax precipitates out.

More at: https://scholarworks.alaska.edu/handle/11122/5837
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Sub-500: TAPS throughput drops in 2019 {Alaska Pipeline}
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2019, 09:45:49 pm »

I think the main problem with ANS is the temperature point where wax precipitates out.

More at: https://scholarworks.alaska.edu/handle/11122/5837
yep, that would be a reaaaaaal big spike on the viscosity chart.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington