Author Topic: Population shifts set up huge House battleground  (Read 390 times)

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Online mystery-ak

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Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:57:49 pm »
Population shifts set up huge House battleground
By Reid Wilson - 07/17/19 06:00 AM EDT

As many as 1 in 5 seats in the House of Representatives may be competitive next year as population shifts and partisan realignment conspire to create one of the most widespread battlefields in generations.

Democrats will find themselves on defense in dozens of districts the party captured in 2018, including 31 districts President Trump won in 2016. Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified 36 members for its Frontline program, which protects endangered incumbents.


Republicans, too, will have to defend districts in unexpected areas, seats that Democrats narrowly lost in 2018. Districts that have not been targets for years are suddenly in play, either because suburban voters revolted against Trump or because new residents are moving in and changing the makeup of those areas.

All told, 89 congressional races were decided by 10 percentage points or less in the 2018 midterm elections.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453425-population-shifts-set-up-huge-house-battleground
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Offline Victoria33

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2019, 04:29:31 pm »
@mystery-ak
@Cyber Liberty
@musiclady
@Sanguine

When I saw the number of Democrats who voted in the Texas primary of 2018, I knew we were likely to lose Republicans in state offices, the legislature, and US Representatives.  That possibility has been proven by the Texas Republican State Party Chairman:

Due to the Texas Republican numbers as put out by the State Party Chairman a couple of weeks ago and posted here, we will likely lose a number of state offices which are all Republicans now, lose state legislature Republicans, and lose US Rep seats.  It is possible for Senator John Cornyn to lose and it is now possible for Trump to lose Texas.  The State Chairman warns this may happen based on the numbers they now have.

Summary: Texas became Republican when George Bush became Governor.  From the time he was elected until now we have held all state offices.  We will lose that in 2020 and lose seats in the US House, may lose Senator Cornyn and may lose the presidency to the Democrat candidate.  Those are facts and no matter how you want to make it wrong by singing the praises of Texas before now, they are still facts.
 

Offline berdie

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2019, 08:51:45 pm »
I don't doubt what you say @Victoria33 . You are far more plugged in and knowledgeable about politics than I.

We lost several seats (Texas)  last election. But we don't really have a good voter turnout. Even for presidential elections but especially on off season.

I think what you say is absolutely true...but maybe not this cycle. We have lots of "outlanders" relocated. Unless Trump and the economy go to hell in a handbasket..We may be ok...this time.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2019, 09:38:51 pm »
I don't doubt what you say @Victoria33 .
But we don't really have a good voter turnout. Even for presidential elections but especially on off season.  I think what you say is absolutely true...but maybe not this cycle.
@berdie

Berdie, the change happened in 2018.  Huge numbers voted in the primary as never before of both parties.  Yes, in the past as far as I remember, Democrats usually did not appear in great numbers in the primary, they waited until the general election.  Berdie, Democrats in huge numbers voted in the 2018 primary.

I will find the link to the thread with the State Chairman's numbers as he says what I wrote - the change has happened.  You will be shocked at the numbers.  Let me find that thread..

Offline Victoria33

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2019, 09:57:50 pm »
@berdie
Here is the link to the TBR thread where the Texas Republican Chairman gives the numbers of the 2018 election, the number of registered voters of certain cities, the estimate of how many more Republican voters and Democrat voters will be registered by 2020.  It will take you some time to study this, maybe copy and paste it in a Word document to study it better.  As I said on this attached thread, these are hard facts.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,367147.msg2002253.html#msg2002253

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2019, 10:12:36 pm »
I hear you, @Victoria33, and agree that the next election cycle will be dicey. 

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2019, 10:49:51 pm »
@berdie

Berdie, the change happened in 2018.  Huge numbers voted in the primary as never before of both parties.  Yes, in the past as far as I remember, Democrats usually did not appear in great numbers in the primary, they waited until the general election.  Berdie, Democrats in huge numbers voted in the 2018 primary.

I will find the link to the thread with the State Chairman's numbers as he says what I wrote - the change has happened.  You will be shocked at the numbers.  Let me find that thread..
And yet they still lost the general. Primary vote tallies are useless. It's the general that matters, and despite spending millions on that race, they still lost. Besides, it's foolishness to assume that a single election is any harbinger of the future.

Forgive me for being flippant here, but this is getting into dead horse territory.
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Online libertybele

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2019, 11:11:20 pm »
I know many think that Trump's re-election is all but certain, but with the shift in demographics, I think it is going to be highly doubtful.  IF he manages to win re-election in 2020, I would lay odds that he will be our last GOP president.
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Online Fishrrman

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2019, 01:06:01 am »
I've posted numerous times about the changing demographics in Texas.
Some posts here seem to confirm that.

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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2019, 02:25:53 am »
@mystery-ak
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@musiclady
@Sanguine

When I saw the number of Democrats who voted in the Texas primary of 2018, I knew we were likely to lose Republicans in state offices, the legislature, and US Representatives.  That possibility has been proven by the Texas Republican State Party Chairman:
Really?  You do know you recently claimed the GOP could lose every statewide seat in the 2020 election.  http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,368061.msg2007490.html#msg2007490

You are fear mongering.
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Offline Victoria33

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Re: Population shifts set up huge House battleground
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2019, 03:07:08 am »
And yet they still lost the general. Primary vote tallies are useless. It's the general that matters, and despite spending millions on that race, they still lost. Besides, it's foolishness to assume that a single election is any harbinger of the future.
Forgive me for being flippant here, but this is getting into dead horse territory.
@jmyrlefuller

Our candidates nearly lost in 2018 and that was not a presidential year but huge numbers of
democrats showed up  to vote in the primary who had never done that; the Republicans numbers were as usual; now, take that elevated number of Democrats and add the larger number of Democrats that will vote in the 2020 primary due to it being a Presidential year AND MORE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.

These numbers are discussed by the State Party Chairman in the link I provided on TBR.  He proves by the numbers we are likely to lose the offices I presented here.  Although I have said this may happen - it is the Chairman of the Party who proves it with the numbers.  I urge you to study the real numbers presented by the Chairman.