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Offline mystery-ak

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Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« on: June 16, 2019, 04:07:13 pm »
Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
By Brad Bannon, opinion contributor — 06/16/19 12:00 PM EDT

The advent of the first Democratic presidential debate in 10 days is a milestone in the race for the 2020 nomination and a good opportunity for a status update on the campaign.

Early in the nomination battle, there are only five candidates that have significant support in the national and state polls. They are former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The other candidates are barely blips on the screen. But primary polls are reflections of name recognition and one or more of the other candidates may become more prominent if their visibility significantly increases.

Biden leads the national polls. The most recent national survey was conducted by the Economist and YouGov has him at 27 percent followed in double digits by Warren at 16 percent and Sanders at 12 percent. Next in line are Buttigieg at 8 percent and Harris at 7 percent.  The other candidates don’t register significant support yet. 

There have been significant changes in the national leader board in the last month.

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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/448791-confused-by-polls-watch-early-primary-states-not-national-numbers
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Offline edpc

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2019, 04:09:13 pm »
So much can happen between now and November 2020. I won’t really care about a poll, until after Labor Day, that year.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2019, 05:33:53 pm »
Quote from: edpc on June 16, 2019, 04:09:13 pm
So much can happen between now and November 2020. I won’t really care about a poll, until after Labor Day, that year.

Not even then.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2019, 07:36:19 pm »
Did the early 1984 New Hampshire winner of the Democrat primary Gary Hart become the eventual nominee?

Early results do not presage much.
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Offline Applewood

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2019, 07:57:11 pm »
I notice Beto isn't among the leaders mentioned in the article.  LOL

Anyway, I agree - polls are useless. But even if one attaches any significance to them, it is early yet.  And I expect a number of these wannabes will drop out in the very near future -- some before the first primary.  Booty Gig in particular.  He's just a flash in the pan and while he might be the flavor of the month through media hype, I doubt too many voters are really attracted to him, except maybe his fellow perverts.
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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2019, 08:27:58 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on June 16, 2019, 07:36:19 pm
Did the early 1984 New Hampshire winner of the Democrat primary Gary Hart become the eventual nominee?

Early results do not presage much.
I think South Carolina's usually the one to watch. At least as of late. I remember many a year where that state delivered crushing blows to the candidates that actually would've made good Presidents, and ended up leading to the nomination of horrible candidates.
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2019, 08:48:36 pm »
Gary Hart ran intoproblens, Donna Rice, monkey business, etc.
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Offline edpc

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2019, 09:39:47 pm »
Quote from: TomSea on June 16, 2019, 08:48:36 pm
Gary Hart ran intoproblens, Donna Rice, monkey business, etc.


Lee Atwater special - one of the more successful dirty political ops.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2019, 10:20:49 pm »
Quote from: TomSea on June 16, 2019, 08:48:36 pm
Gary Hart ran intoproblens, Donna Rice, monkey business, etc.
Which is exactly the point made.
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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2019, 03:15:19 am »
Definitely. You simply can't do national polls in a Presidential nomination race. It doesn't work.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2019, 03:40:12 am »
Quote from: Free Vulcan on June 17, 2019, 03:15:19 am
Definitely. You simply can't do national polls in a Presidential nomination race. It doesn't work.

Doesn't stop the Enemedia from trying to drive a square peg in that round hole.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2019, 03:41:11 am »
Quote from: edpc on June 16, 2019, 09:39:47 pm

Lee Atwater special - one of the more successful dirty political ops.

Did Atwater set Hartpence up with Donna Rice?
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Confused by polls? Watch early primary states — not national numbers
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2019, 03:55:42 am »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on June 17, 2019, 03:41:11 am
Did Atwater set Hartpence up with Donna Rice?

I've heard this discussed in the past year, something sort of like this.  For some reason, Donna Rice went to his home, Atwater new about it and maybe they fabricated a story about it. I kind of forget it now. There is that famous picture of her sitting on his lap. I'll study up on it another time.
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