Hop on now before Dow reaches 40,000, says forecaster who nailed 2018 selloff

[libertybele]

Hop on now before Dow reaches 40,000, says forecaster who nailed 2018 selloff

Get your “Dow 40,000” hat orders in now.

That is, if you’re buying what our call of the day from Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., is selling. The stock forecaster, who correctly predicted a “panic event” in 2018, sees another big top coming for the Dow industrials, and says investors have roughly two years to hop on board.

“It will be what we call a ‘generational top’,” where the Dow will climb to 30,000 then 40,000 as an eventual high, but then plateau for a decade, Lamoureux told MarketWatch in an interview.

He says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can be counted on to support stocks anytime they get in trouble, especially going into an election year where the economy needs to stay in tiptop shape. Powell appeared to do just that this week with hints of interest rate cuts, even if not everyone is convinced that move is coming.

“What I’m expecting...is another big move, in which people really go nuts. That's what’s kind of missing here,” Lamoureux said. “What separates me from everybody else is we study psychology, and what I find particularly odd now is there has been a very big flight of money out of stocks to bonds.” ............

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hop-on-now-before-dow-reaches-40000-says-forecaster-who-nailed-2018-selloff-2019-06-06?mod=mw_theo_homepage

[thackney]

...Dow will climb to 30,000 then 40,000...

It is a question of when, not if.

But the when could be 20~40 years....

[catfish1957]

It is a question of when, not if.

But the when could be 20~40 years....

Dow's way overbought at 25K.  You are right, a 40K number is something in the distant future. In fact based on the trajectory of pending trade wars, I'd say a 25 - 50% correction is more likely.

[libertybele]

Dow's way overbought at 25K.  You are right, a 40K number is something in the distant future. In fact based on the trajectory of pending trade wars, I'd say a 25 - 50% correction is more likely.

Possibly and if that happens I think we will see a full blown recession worse than 2008 and lasting much longer than a typical recession cycle.

[catfish1957]

Possibly and if that happens I think we will see a full blown recession worse than 2008 and lasting much longer than a typical recession cycle.

Also add the fact that on top of the rare earth metals issue, the Chicoms hold $1.2T in treasury bond debt  this country.

If they cash in, watch a start of inflationary and interest rate surge almost overnight, leading to a recessionary economy.   Recent news does not have me bullish on U. S. economy for the foreseeable future.  Hopefully Trump's game of chicken on trade does not come back and bite everyone involved.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Also add the fact that on top of the rare earth metals issue, the Chicoms hold $1.2T in treasury bond debt  this country.

If they cash in, watch a start of inflationary and interest rate surge almost overnight, leading to a recessionary economy.   Recent news does not have me bullish on U. S. economy for the foreseeable future.  Hopefully Trump's game of chicken on trade does not come back and bite everyone involved.

The problem for China is that it owns $1.2T in bonds.  If they start selling rapidly enough to raise interest rates, their portfolio loses lots of money.