US Manufacturing Crashes To Record Low

[ABX]

Following the US Services sector's collapse (and Canada and China's plunge), US Manufacturing's soft survey data tumbled in May.
The headline PMI fell to its lowest level since September 2009 as output growth eased (with output expectations crashing to the joint-lowest since records began) and new orders fell for the first time since August 2009.
The ISM Manufacturing print also disappointed at 52.1 (53.0 exp), the weakest since Oct 2016 (despite a rise in new export orders and employment).....



Three of five ISM components declined, including production, inventories and supplier deliveries,and stagflation looms as prices paid rose. .....

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/us-manufacturing-hope-crashes-record-low?fbclid=IwAR2ARx4OTJKyeBm79fyTrvYB4epKo2HC_nFb3Lxq2R7LmqCjHVH-Viqq22s

[ABX]

“Ongoing tariffs [issue is] impacting costs and influencing supplier realignment on country of origin. Border issue is causing delays in imports from Mexico.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“The threat of additional tariffs has forced a change in our supply chain strategy; we are shifting business from China to Mexico, which will not increase the number of U.S. jobs.” (Chemical Products)
“Sales continue to decline. Volumes are off, [and] profits haven't decreased in proportion to sales. Higher-margin vehicles continue strong sales, but low- to mid-range sales are down.” (Transportation Equipment)
“The threat of a 15-percent increase on Section 301 tariffs is a concern. Although the potential has been around for months, the recent deadline was not expected. We had calculated and communicated the potential cost impact to our leadership.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

May saw US manufacturers endure the toughest month in nearly ten years, with the headline PMI down to its lowest since the height of the global financial crisis. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2009, causing increasing numbers of firms to cut production and employment. At current levels, the survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing output falling at an increased rate in the second quarter, meaning production is set to act as a further drag on GDP, with factory payroll numbers likewise in decline.

[rustynail]

It's bad out there, these are Hard Times.

[catfish1957]

Winning.  (/s)

[Wingnut]

Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.
Didn't need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.

[skeeter]

Gee our old LaSalle ran great.

[ABX]

It's bad out there, these are Hard Times.

Sarcasm aside, these are future indicators based on orders and supply. Government interventionism in the market never worked. The last time we saw tariffs used in the vast manner like they are now was under Jimmy Carter and it resulted in what is known as the malaise. This is interfering with the entire supply chain.

[thackney]

It's bad out there, these are Hard Times.

Not around here.  Folks here cannot even keep people if they are not working at least 50 hrs/wk.  Everyone else is so guys leave if they are cut to 40 hrs/wk.  It has been booming for quite a while.

[skeeter]

Not around here.  Folks here cannot even keep people if they are not working at least 50 hrs/wk.  Everyone else is so guys leave if they are cut to 40 hrs/wk.  It has been booming for quite a while.

The economy is very weird around here - certain tech companies are booming, but due to ridiculous commercial lease rates, mandatory 15 per hour min wage, astronomical taxes, etc. the rest of the economy is sucking wind. If there is any 'trickle down' going on here it's all trickling into the government coffers.

So we have the unprecedented situation (at least in my lifetime) of a white hot tech sector and a near-recession everywhere else.

[Wingnut]

Gee our old LaSalle ran great.

Those were the days.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Sarcasm aside, these are future indicators based on orders and supply. Government interventionism in the market never worked. The last time we saw tariffs used in the vast manner like they are now was under Jimmy Carter and it resulted in what is known as the malaise. This is interfering with the entire supply chain.

I do not recall any meaningful tariffs enacted by Carter.  He did place an embargo on sales of grain to USSR in response to its invasion of Afghanistan, but it was ineffective as it bought grain elsewhere.

And 'malaise' was due to Carter's energy policies, not tariffs.

Let me know what tariffs Carter imposed you are alluding to, as I might have overlooked. @ABX

[skeeter]

I do not recall any meaningful tariffs enacted by Carter.  He did place an embargo on sales of grain to USSR in response to its invasion of Afghanistan, but it was ineffective as it bought grain elsewhere.

And 'malaise' was due to Carter's energy policies, not tariffs.

Let me know what tariffs Carter imposed you are alluding to, as I might have overlooked. @ABX

I recall an artificial gas shortage, 12 percent inflation and monetary policy resulting in 13 percent (& 19% credit card!) interest rates as causing the malaise of the late 70s.

[ABX]

I do not recall any meaningful tariffs enacted by Carter.  He did place an embargo on sales of grain to USSR in response to its invasion of Afghanistan, but it was ineffective as it bought grain elsewhere.

And 'malaise' was due to Carter's energy policies, not tariffs.

Let me know what tariffs Carter imposed you are alluding to, as I might have overlooked. @ABX

Really because. It is very well known and commonly cited and tbe comparison between the two comes up quite often.

https://steveking.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/king-on-trade-wartariffs-don-t-repeat-jimmy-carter-s-economic-mistakes

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2018/04/07/exclusive-steve-king-on-tariffs-weve-still-got-scars-from-jimmy-carters-farm-crisis-decade/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/1294964/the-history-of-us-steel-tariffs/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/opinion/finance/401506-meddling-with-farm-exports-hurt-nixon-and-carter-theyll-hurt-trump-too%3famp

[ABX]

I recall an artificial gas shortage, 12 percent inflation and monetary policy resulting in 13 percent (& 19% credit card!) interest rates as causing the malaise of the late 70s.

Those were the symptoms and results, the disease was market interventionism including tariffs.

[skeeter]

Those were the symptoms and results, the disease was market interventionism including tariffs.

I disagree with Steve King - the malaise of the late 70s was not caused by Carter's grain embargo. But i understand why he's upset about Trump's China policies considering the state he represents.

[jmyrlefuller]

You've sunk to a new low resorting to a fake news site like Zerohedge for your inflammatory posts, @ABX .

Good God, I am getting sick of this place. Y'all have lost your common sense.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

You've sunk to a new low resorting to a fake news site like Zerohedge for your inflammatory posts, @ABX .

Good God, I am getting sick of this place. Y'all have lost your common sense.

Here's a couple other fake news sites that claim the same thing...

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/21f2aabb766f4eb2b9b7560336d053e8
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

Oh wait, sorry, those are the primary sources for the data in question.

You're certainly right about common sense thing.  I should have actually looked up the official numbers before crying "fake news[TM]!"

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

The economy is very weird around here - certain tech companies are booming, but due to ridiculous commercial lease rates, mandatory 15 per hour min wage, astronomical taxes, etc. the rest of the economy is sucking wind. If there is any 'trickle down' going on here it's all trickling into the government coffers.

So we have the unprecedented situation (at least in my lifetime) of a white hot tech sector and a near-recession everywhere else.

Years of artificially low interest rates and clear signs by the central banks that they'll set in before letting markets fall have certainly led to an odd "economy/market".  People often say about the current situation that a rising tide raises all boats -- as if that's a good thing.  You'd think we'd have learned something after spending decades stomping out every little fire in the woods.

[Free Vulcan]

I'm really not seeing this, so I take it with a grain of salt that it's a trend. We shall see.

[jmyrlefuller]

Here's a couple other fake news sites that claim the same thing...

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/21f2aabb766f4eb2b9b7560336d053e8
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

Oh wait, sorry, those are the primary sources for the data in question.

You're certainly right about common sense thing.  I should have actually looked up the official numbers before crying "fake news[TM]!"

Neither one of those sites show anything about any "crash." In fact, both still show the index as above 50 (i.e. positive), inasmuch as those indices mean anything... all while showing that if you go back to 2009, the index was through the floor and well below 40, even. So it's not a record, it's not a crash, and Zerohedge is faking headlines again.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Really because. It is very well known and commonly cited and tbe comparison between the two comes up quite often.

https://steveking.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/king-on-trade-wartariffs-don-t-repeat-jimmy-carter-s-economic-mistakes

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2018/04/07/exclusive-steve-king-on-tariffs-weve-still-got-scars-from-jimmy-carters-farm-crisis-decade/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/1294964/the-history-of-us-steel-tariffs/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/opinion/finance/401506-meddling-with-farm-exports-hurt-nixon-and-carter-theyll-hurt-trump-too%3famp

Nothing in any of these referenced articles mention tariffs imposed by Carter like you claimed.

Your quote: "The last time we saw tariffs used in the vast manner like they are now was under Jimmy Carter and it resulted in what is known as the malaise."

Care to retract that statement or do you have something else? @ABX

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I recall an artificial gas shortage, 12 percent inflation and monetary policy resulting in 13 percent (& 19% credit card!) interest rates as causing the malaise of the late 70s.

Yep, all that happened (my mortgage was 15.5% variable - one I like to forget), but it most certainly was not due to tariffs like the poster claimed.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I'm really not seeing this, so I take it with a grain of salt that it's a trend. We shall see.

If you check out the ISM report, it really makes sense.  Tariffs, border issues, and a tight labor market are putting pressure on production, while increased demand is drawing down inventories.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Those were the symptoms and results, the disease was market interventionism including tariffs.

You have yet to post anything to back up the claim tariffs caused this in part.  Do you have something? @ABX

[IsailedawayfromFR]

You have yet to post anything to back up the claim tariffs caused this in part.  Do you have something? @ABX

I knew it, a blank stare at the screen, unwilling to admit an error.

He was attempting to tie in Trump's tariffs with the failures of Carter, which were not caused by tariffs.

He failed.