Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog 5/27/2019
Biden continues to lap the field, Buttigieg’s boomlet bottoms out, O’Rourke stabilizes, Messam registers, Klobucher shows a tiny bit of life, and mentions of John McCain, Jimmy Carter and Alannis Morissette. It’s the latest Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update!
My original idea behind doing this update was to show at a glance which candidates were in, which were out, and what all of them were doing. With so many declared candidates in the race, I’ve decided it was high time to move all of the declared Out names, as well as those for whom there was zero buzz, down to the Out of the Running section below the clown car list proper. This should make it a bit easier to read, with less repetition from week to week.
Polls
Echelon Insights: Biden 38, Sanders 16, Buttigieg 5, Warren 5, O’Rourke 5, Harris 5, Klobucher 2, Booker 2, Bennet 1, Yang 1, Gillibrand 1, Castro 1, Messam 1. Messam actually registering 1% is far and away his best showing. Also interesting breakdowns on the voters backing each candidate (Biden old, Sanders young, Buttigieg suburban women, Warren whites with Bachelor’s degrees, etc.).
Monmouth: Biden 33, Sanders 15, Harris 11, Warren 10, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 4, Klobucher 3, Booker 1, de Blasio 1, Gabbard 1, Williamson 1, Yang 1, everyone else below 1%. However, the information they lead with on the poll is who is doing best in early voting states: Biden 26, Sander 14, Harris 14, Warren 9, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 2, Yang 2, Williamson 1, Bennet 1, Castro 1, Delany 1, Hickenlooper 1, Ryan 1.
The Hill/HarrisX: Biden 33, Sanders 14, Warren 8, Buttigieg 6, Harris 6, O’Rourke 5. “Several aspirants were not named by any participant: Gov. Steve Bullock (D-Mont.), former Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Washington), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-Alaska), Florida mayor Wayne Messam, and author Marianne Williamson.â€
Florida Atlantic University for the Florida primary: Biden 29, Sanders 12, Warren 12, Buttigieg 9, Harris 7, O’Rourke 5. (In the 2020 general matchup, Trump ties Biden and beats everyone else.)
Quinnipiac: Biden 35, Sanders 16, Warren 13, Harris 8, Buttigieg 5, Booker 3, Klobucher 2, O’Rourke 2, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1. Interesting nugget: Harris does better among white votes (9) than non-white voters (7).
Morning Consult: Biden 39, Sanders 19, Warren 9, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 4, Booker 3.
Real Clear Politics
538 polls
Election betting markets: Yang is up to seventh this week.
Pundits, etc.
Whose in and whose out in the debates. Not in yet: Bennet, de Blasio, Gravel, Moulton, Messam.
Progressives think they can still take Biden down. “Biden’s initial strength was always expected, they said. They maintain that the progressive nature of the Democratic electorate will soon make itself known, to his detriment.†Whistling past the graveyard…
“Young voters have Buttigieg and Beto. So why do they prefer old socialists?†Boiled down: Because they want free stuff. Unstated: And they’re easier to fool into thinking they can get it.
“CNN to host four more presidential town halls: Bennet, Moulton, Ryan and Swalwell.†It’s like the NIT of town halls…
“How each 2020 Democratic presidential candidate could win.†Not really…
538 on what the candidates are saying and doing.
Now on to the clown car itself:
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Maybe? She’s all in on identity politics.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets a Politico profile where he talks about ow badly his campaign is sucking.
Former Vice President Joe Biden: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Teflon Joe†continues to crush the opposition in early polling. “He also leads in all of the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and is clobbering rivals in South Carolina.†Some democratic strategists you’ve never heard of are mystified by his popularity. “Why Joe Biden Is the Only True Progressive Candidate.†As in 1924 progressives like Robert LaFollett. I’m sure “He’d be a progessive 96 years ago!†is a battle cry that will stir the woke base to the Biden barricades…
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He came out for charter schools…but only the one where none of those icky Republicans are involved. He added more people to his campaign team.
More:
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=40376
