Rural America Is On The Verge Of Collapse

[Sanguine]

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/24/2019 - 23:25

The Economic Innovation Group's (EIG) Distressed Communities Index (DCI) shows a significant economic transformation (from two distinct periods: 2007-2011 and 2012-2016) that occurred since the financial crisis. The shift of human capital, job creation, and business formation to metropolitan areas reveals that rural America is teetering on the edge of collapse.

Since the crisis, the number of people living in prosperous zip codes expanded by 10.2 million, to a total of 86.5 million, an increase that was much greater than any other social class. Meanwhile, the number of Americans living in distressed zip codes decreased to 3.4 million, to a total of 50 million, the smallest shift of any other social class. This indicates that the geography of economic pain is in rural America.

    "While the overall population in distressed zip codes declined, the number of rural Americans in that category increased by nearly 1 million between the two periods. Rural zip codes exhibited the most volatility and were by far the most likely to be downwardly mobile on the index, with 30 percent dropping into a lower quintile of prosperity—nearly twice the proportion of urban zip codes that fell into a lower quintile. Meanwhile, suburban communities registered the greatest stability, with 61 percent remaining in the same quintile over both periods. Urban zip codes were the most robust—least likely to decline and more likely than their suburban counterparts to rise," the report said...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-20/rural-america-verge-collapse

Some disturbing trends and numbers.

[roamer_1]

Some disturbing trends and numbers.

Money ain't everything.

[Sanguine]

Money ain't everything.

Being able to make a living and support one's family sure as heck is.

[jmyrlefuller]

Some disturbing trends and numbers.

Caveat, though: it's Zerohedge. Everything they preach is doom and gloom.

[Sanguine]

Caveat, though: it's Zerohedge. Everything they preach is doom and gloom.

Yeah, that's why I mentioned the numbers. 

[XenaLee]

Whats that?  Leftists... trying to talk down a booming GOP-improved economy?  Nah!   Couldn't be!   

[Free Vulcan]

Depends on where you are at, but there are definitely good sized chunks of rural America where this is true.

[XenaLee]

Depends on where you are at, but there are definitely good sized chunks of rural America where this is true.

I've probably already reached my sarcasm quota for the day, but what the hell... here goes....

I'm sure that those chunks of rural America would have been sooooo much better off under a president Hillary and the Democrats running and ruining things.  (that's all I'm allowed... I'm out)

[Smokin Joe]

I've probably already reached my sarcasm quota for the day, but what the hell... here goes....

I'm sure that those chunks of rural America would have been sooooo much better off under a president Hillary and the Democrats running and ruining things.  (that's all I'm allowed... I'm out)

Well, some of those chunks were created by liberal policies imposed from major urban areas. Upstate New York, other areas which failed to cash in on oil and gas revenues--which have dropped with the price of oil and may be contributing to the apparent miasma which has overcome the GDP of oil rich areas. There are lots of ways to game the numbers and make relative prosperity seem like doom, too. It all depends on what numbers are picked for the baseline.

[XenaLee]

Well, some of those chunks were created by liberal policies imposed from major urban areas. Upstate New York, other areas which failed to cash in on oil and gas revenues--which have dropped with the price of oil and may be contributing to the apparent miasma which has overcome the GDP of oil rich areas. There are lots of ways to game the numbers and make relative prosperity seem like doom, too. It all depends on what numbers are picked for the baseline.

Exactly.  And... considering the miasmic economy that the "lowered expectations" Democrats created for the previous 8-9 years.... these past two years have been miraculous, IMO.  But per usual, much like they did under GWB, they're trying again (hey, it worked the first time) to melt down the economy by talking (lying) it down.  I'm sure they're trying other means behind the scenes, too.  Hopefully, we won't find out what other means....

[Free Vulcan]

I've probably already reached my sarcasm quota for the day, but what the hell... here goes....

I'm sure that those chunks of rural America would have been sooooo much better off under a president Hillary and the Democrats running and ruining things.  (that's all I'm allowed... I'm out)

This is more of a long term thing that's been going on since the Rust Belt days. It doesn't seem to matter who is President.

[XenaLee]

This is more of a long term thing that's been going on since the Rust Belt days. It doesn't seem to matter who is President.

Sorry, but.... I do believe in 'trickle down'.  Even if/when you're in Hell.  And I don't buy that "doesn't matter who is President" stuff.

That said, I still stick my my initial sarc.... which is based on historical fact.   The left will say and do anything to talk down this economy.... just cause it's a Republican in the WH.  If there are rural areas of the country that have never done well (since the Rust Belt days?).... that happens.  Especially if or when there are lefties involved in governing those areas.

[Free Vulcan]

Sorry, but.... I do believe in 'trickle down'.  Even if/when you're in Hell.  And I don't buy that "doesn't matter who is President" stuff.

That said, I still stick my my initial sarc.... which is based on historical fact.   The left will say and do anything to talk down this economy.... just cause it's a Republican in the WH.  If there are rural areas of the country that have never done well (since the Rust Belt days?).... that happens.  Especially if or when there are lefties involved in governing those areas.

I live in one of those areas. While Trump has helped immensely, it's just a partial offset to the previous 40 years.

This nation has a very significant problem with it's rural areas, and I don't see it getting better long term, as much as I hope things will change.

[XenaLee]

I live in one of those areas. While Trump has helped immensely, it's just a partial offset to the previous 40 years.

This nation has a very significant problem with it's rural areas, and I don't see it getting better long term, as much as I hope things will change.

Well, I hope (for your sake and your family's sake) that things DO get better... no matter which party is in power.

[ABX]

Jimmy Carter Malaise starting to sprout again, much for the same reasons.

[Smokin Joe]

This is more of a long term thing that's been going on since the Rust Belt days. It doesn't seem to matter who is President.

You can make the numbers look worse by comparing the height of the oil/gas boom of late to the current numbers, with rig counts having declined by 75% in some areas. It looks bad compared to the boom, but in reality it is still a large improvement over the previous baseline

[Sanguine]

I've probably already reached my sarcasm quota for the day, but what the hell... here goes....

I'm sure that those chunks of rural America would have been sooooo much better off under a president Hillary and the Democrats running and ruining things.  (that's all I'm allowed... I'm out)

@XenaLee, the article doesn't even mention Trump.  It talks about trends that started before his election.

And, the Chinese stuff is hurting farmers, no question.  As you know, I support resetting that trade imbalance and recognize that it will hurt, some.  But, much less than if we do nothing.

[XenaLee]

@XenaLee, the article doesn't even mention Trump.  It talks about trends that started before his election.

And, the Chinese stuff is hurting farmers, no question.  As you know, I support resetting that trade imbalance and recognize that it will hurt, some.  But, much less than if we do nothing.

I don't really care that the article didn't mention Trump.  Trump and his policies are literally the elephant in the room that needs no official mention.

As for resetting the trade imbalance ....no other president has even addressed that problem or tried a reset previous to Trump (that I'm aware of).  Yet another instance of that elephant in the room not mentioned. 

[Sanguine]

I don't really care that the article didn't mention Trump.  Trump and his policies are literally the elephant in the room that needs no official mention.

As for resetting the trade imbalance ....no other president has even addressed that problem or tried a reset previous to Trump (that I'm aware of).  Yet another instance of that elephant in the room not mentioned.

In all fairness, the article was about American farmers and problems beyond just the China reset.  Again, I think it needs to happen and soon.

[massadvj]

Regardless, life in rural America is way better than life in metropolitan America.  There is no economic opportunity in the world worth giving up country life for, as far as I am concerned.

[Free Vulcan]

Regardless, life in rural America is way better than life in metropolitan America.  There is no economic opportunity in the world worth giving up country life for, as far as I am concerned.

True dat!

A country boy will survive.

[XenaLee]

In all fairness, the article was about American farmers and problems beyond just the China reset.  Again, I think it needs to happen and soon.

Whatev

[Free Vulcan]

I've seen with my own eyes what this study has talked about. And it seems to be accelerating.

The younger generation, despite the good show they put on about not following the materialistic ways of previous generations, are fully indoctrinated with pop culture, love the amenities, and the educated ones can't get to the burbs fast enough.

The drain in many rural areas is relentless and self perpetuating. Trump has really helped with reviving some of that by giving manufacturing a boost with his policies, but under the age of 50 what you have left of the younger generation is mostly the dregs except for a very small minority that just can't stand the big city.

It's the long term that worries me, especially with more automation on the horizon that ultimately is going to drastically reduce the middle class and the affluence of the very burbs everyone's flocking to.

If it plays out, we're heading toward a model of urban city-states, and vast rural areas of scattered population here and there with lots of nothing in between.

[jmyrlefuller]

The real, surprisingly comforting, reason rural America is "doomed to decline"

[Free Vulcan]

The real, surprisingly comforting, reason rural America is "doomed to decline"

Can't believe I'm agreeing with the Compost, but this is correct:

Without growing cities, the remaining rural areas paint a dark picture

Rural America today is a different place than in 1950. It’s much smaller and has lost its midsize towns and the counties that surrounded bigger cities.

The areas left after seven decades of reclassification tend to be defined by their history of clawing resources, such as copper, timber or winter wheat, from the open country, and their present of clawing a living from an older population and a shrinking economy.

“Those kinds of areas have been losing population for a long time. When they leave, they leave behind an older, aging population with no reproductive potential,” Lichter said. “It’s very hard to see how these places are going to recover,” he added.

Point being, at one time small and mid-size towns could stand on their own. Not anymore. Too many factors working against them.