Schoen: Why Joe Biden can win the White House
By Douglas Schoen, opinion contributor — 05/15/19 10:00 AM EDT
The Democratic primary race has changed, and it has indeed changed fundamentally. Though it has been less than a month since former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy, he has emerged as the clear frontrunner in a crowded field, which expanded to 22 candidates after the announcement of Montana Governor Steve Bullock this week.
Most candidates are struggling to break out and distinguish themselves, and all but a few have yet to break 6 percent or 7 percent in any poll since Biden officially entered the race. The latest poll by The Hill and HarrisX has Biden capturing 46 percent of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders with 14 percent. Trailing Sanders is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 8 percent, and then Senator Elizabeth Warren with 7 percent, followed by fellow Senator Kamala Harris with 6 percent.
Biden also maintains this substantial lead in key states with early primaries that are crucial to winning the party nomination. According to the latest poll by the Post and Courier and Change Research, Biden holds a lead of 31 points over the rest of the Democratic primary field in South Carolina, the third state to hold its primary in 2020. Sanders trails Biden in a distant second place, garnering 15 percent, compared to Biden with 46 percent. According to a poll by Monmouth University of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Biden leads the crowded field by a margin of 18 points with 36 percent support, followed by Sanders with 18 percent support.
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/443767-joe-biden-can-win-the-white-house
