Author Topic: Iran Crisis Thread (updates)  (Read 14206 times)

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Offline Sanguine

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #50 on: May 15, 2019, 04:03:14 PM »
"I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials." – George Mason, Virginia Ratifying Convention, June 1788

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #51 on: May 15, 2019, 04:12:57 PM »
Quote
Ted Cruz slams 'Orwellian' Trump administration official for stonewalling about allowing Iranian nuclear research
by Philip Klein  | May 15, 2019 02:22 PM
3 minutes

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Wednesday took a Trump State Department official to the woodshed, slamming her "Orwellian" response as she stonewalled rather than explain why the administration was allowing Iran to continue its nuclear research activities.

As I've previously noted, while President Trump has taken many important steps to unwind the Iran deal after publicly pulling out of it, much work remains. One of the most glaring problems that has persisted has been the odd insistence of the administration to continue to allow nuclear research in the bunkered Fordow facility.

"How is it possibly in our best interest to allow Iran to continue doing nuclear research in the Fordow bunker that was built in the side of the mountain to be able to develop nuclear weapons to use to murder Americans?" Cruz asked in a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "How is that in our best interest?"

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/ted-cruz-slams-orwellian-trump-administration-official-for-stonewalling-about-allowing-iranian-nuclear-research

Not sure how important this that transpired was but something to keep in mind. Hawkish? I thought the lady worked for the Trump admin. but I was a bit unsure.

Online Elderberry

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #52 on: May 15, 2019, 06:13:19 PM »
US pulls nonessential staff from Iraq amid Mideast tensions
Houston Chronicle By JON GAMBRELL and PHILIP ISSA,  May 15, 2019
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/crime/article/Satellite-image-shows-Saudi-pump-station-after-13846303.php

Quote
The U.S. on Wednesday ordered all nonessential government staff to leave Iraq, and Germany and the Netherlands both suspended their military assistance programs in the country in the latest sign of tensions sweeping the Persian Gulf region over still-unspecified threats that the Trump administration says are linked to Iran.

Recent days have seen allegations of sabotage targeting oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, a drone attack by Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels, and the dispatch of U.S. warships and bombers to the region.

At the root of this appears to be President Donald Trump's decision a year ago to pull the U.S. from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers, embarking on a maximalist sanctions campaign against Tehran. In response, Iran's supreme leader issued a veiled threat Tuesday, saying it wouldn't be difficult for the Islamic Republic to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.

The movement of diplomatic personnel is often done in times of conflict, but what is driving the decisions from the White House remains unclear. A high-ranking British general said there was no new threat from Iran or its regional proxies, something immediately rebutted by the U.S. military's Central Command, which said its troops were on high alert, without elaborating.

Last week, U.S. officials said they had detected signs of Iranian preparations for potential attacks on U.S. forces and interests in the Middle East, but Washington has not spelled out that threat.

An alert on the website of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said all nonessential, nonemergency U.S. government staff were ordered to leave Iraq right away under State Department orders. That includes those working at the U.S. Consulate in Irbil. The U.S. Consulate in Basra has been closed since September following a rocket attack blamed on Iranian-backed militias.

The U.S. in recent days has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf region, plus four B-52 bombers.

More at link
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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #53 on: May 16, 2019, 06:32:06 AM »
Washington Times, if these are the kinds of missiles that are being moved around, ouch!:


https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/15/us-intel-showed-iran-backed-militias-moving-rocket/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=evening&utm_term=evening&utm_content=evening&bt_ee=NOugz0t3FOT5BpiyNwhanT2c1tV0GtCciBXyTGFrfw6Ag%2BIyhR48Gbn0GxhCcvoE&bt_ts=1557956228097

The sanctions are biting, that's why we've had this incident. Sanctions are biting, sanctions were ramped up. Some experts would say, we are trying to goad them into a confrontation. Then, you have the others who would say, see, this is indeed what they want and they want to build these dangerous nukes.

Online TomSea

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #54 on: May 16, 2019, 11:09:16 AM »
Flashback.

Check date, May 12, 2008, anyway, we raised sanctions on Iran, that apparently is causing some distress for them.  They could have saved those nuke deal billions for a rainy day. BTW, I think Buchanan was doing a ruse here on this topic:

Hot Air:

Quote
Pat Buchanan to Lieberman: Why aren’t we bombing Iran now?
Ed Morrissey Posted at 5:20 pm on May 12, 2008

https://hotair.com/archives/2008/05/12/pat-buchanan-to-lieberman-why-arent-we-bombing-iran-now/

Then the article seems to be a bit out on a tangent talking about the campaign of that year.

Anyway, we can see if anything significant develops.


Online TomSea

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #55 on: May 16, 2019, 11:28:07 AM »
Quote
Saudi paper urges US 'surgical strikes' on Iran
AP|Published:  05.16.19 , 16:23

A state-aligned Saudi newspaper is calling for "surgical" U.S. strikes in retaliation against alleged threats from Iran.
 
The Arab News published an editorial in English on Thursday, arguing that after incidents this week against Saudi energy targets, the next logical step "should be surgical strikes."
 
The editorial says U.S. airstrikes in Syria, when the government there was suspected of using chemical weapons against civilians, "set a precedent."

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5510325,00.html

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #56 on: May 16, 2019, 11:35:40 AM »
"I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials." – George Mason, Virginia Ratifying Convention, June 1788

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #57 on: May 16, 2019, 12:43:05 PM »
Quote

SPOTTED: SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, walking around the Capitol with her iPhone screen facing outward in full view, and Javad Zarif’s contact page on the screen. Zarif is the name of Iran’s foreign minister.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2019/05/16/what-dianne-feinsteins-phone-told-us-437020?cid=su_tw_pb
https://twitter.com/politico/status/1129000942622388225
I guess, they can see this if they claim it, I'm unsure of which picture. Must be the 2nd one(?).

-----------------

See, I think the Iranians are peeved primarily about the sanctions. So, Yay or Nay? That's just my commentary.

Quote
Trump Readies a New War on Iran’s Economy
The warships and the leaked battle plans are getting the attention. But the real attack on Iran may be sanctions designed to destabilize the country and undermine its leadership.
Erin Banco,   Asawin Suebsaeng    05.15.19 10:03 PM ET

The Trump administration’s increasingly aggressive military posture toward Iran is overshadowing its more concrete plans for crippling the regime in Tehran: a set of robust new sanctions to add to its economic warfare campaign.

Senior professionals inside the administration, who have been crafting Iran policy since before President Trump’s inauguration, are considering another sanctions package designed to destabilize Iran, undermine that country’s leadership, and, potentially, serve as an alternative to military action. Among the proposals being looked at are sanctions that would effectively blacklist certain sectors of the Iranian economy, including the petrochemical sector, according to two individuals with direct knowledge of the conversations.

An aggressive sanctions strategy isn’t a new tactic for the president. Since Trump took office, the administration has slapped sanctions on nearly 1,000 individuals and entities to tighten the screws on Tehran. But the latest round of proposed sanctions would make it even more difficult, if not legally impossible, for many other countries or companies to do business in some of Iran’s most significant business sectors.

Read more at: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-readies-a-new-war-on-irans-economy

Pretty good analysis, imo.

Offline thackney

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #58 on: May 16, 2019, 03:42:52 PM »
I guess, they can see this if they claim it, I'm unsure of which picture. Must be the 2nd one(?).

Both pictures are old file photos from at least 2018.  They are not related to the phone contact exposed.
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US: Iran military could misidentify airliners amid tension
« Reply #59 on: May 18, 2019, 12:06:13 PM »
Quote
US: Iran military could misidentify airliners amid tension
By JON GAMBRELL

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf risk being targeted by “miscalculation or misidentification” from the Iranian military amid heightened tensions between the Islamic Republic and the U.S., American diplomats warned Saturday, even as both Washington and Tehran say they don’t seek war.

The warning relayed by U.S. diplomatic posts from the Federal Aviation Administration underscored the risks the current tensions pose to a region critical to both global air travel and trade. Oil tankers allegedly have faced sabotage and Yemen rebel drones attacked a crucial Saudi oil pipeline over the last week.

Meanwhile on Saturday, Iraqi officials said ExxonMobil Corp. began evacuating staff from Basra, and the island nation of Bahrain ordered its citizens out of Iraq and Iran over “the recent escalations and threats.”

Read more at: https://www.apnews.com/b4f5c00455fb4ffb878ed29df58abc03

Online corbe

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #60 on: May 18, 2019, 08:38:06 PM »
Fmr CIA chief of station: 'Encouraging' that Iran is unloading missiles from its boats

By Sam Dorman | Fox News




Daniel Hoffman says he believes Iran is attempting to deescalate the rising tensions with the U.S.

Iran's decision to remove missiles from two of its boats indicated the rogue nation was de-escalating tensions surrounding its nuclear program, former CIA Chief of Station Daniel Hoffman said on Saturday.

Hoffman told "America's News HQ" that the removal was "an encouraging sign." "I think Iran is trying to de-escalate.

Foreign minister [Mohammad Javad] Zarif has also stated that Iran has stated publicly that Iran has no interest whatsoever in war with the United States," he added while speaking with Fox News host Leland Vittert.

<..snip..>

https://www.foxnews.com/world/cia-chief-iran-missiles-boats
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Offline EdJames

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #61 on: May 18, 2019, 08:50:10 PM »
U.S. warns airliners flying over Persian Gulf amid tensions with Iran

Updated on: May 18, 2019 / 9:39 AM / CBS/AP




U.S. diplomats warned Saturday that commercial airliners flying over the wider Persian Gulf faced a risk of being "misidentified" amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The warning relayed by U.S. diplomatic posts from the Federal Aviation Administration underlined the risks the tensions pose to a region crucial to global air travel. It also came as Lloyd's of London warned of increasing risks to maritime shipping in the region.

--snip--

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-warns-airliners-flying-over-persian-gulf-amid-tensions-with-iran/

Online TomSea

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #62 on: May 20, 2019, 11:27:09 AM »
Updates for the thread:

Quote
Iran dismisses Trump's 'genocidal taunts'
5-7 minutes
File photo of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (24 April 2019) Image copyright Reuters
Image caption Mohammad Javad Zarif has insisted that Iran does not want a war

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has dismissed US President Donald Trump's "genocidal taunts" and warned him not to threaten the country.

With tensions rising, Mr Trump tweeted on Sunday: "If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran."

Mr Zarif said the president should look at history. "Iranians have stood tall for millennia while aggressors all gone... Try respect - it works!"

See more at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48338168

Online corbe

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #63 on: May 20, 2019, 11:34:00 AM »
Graham says Bolton briefed him on Iran, tells Trump to 'stand firm'

By Jordain Carney - 05/20/19 11:28 AM EDT
 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Monday that national security advisor John Bolton had briefed him on escalating tensions with Iran, and urged President Trump to "stand firm."
 
"Just received a briefing from National Security Advisor Bolton about escalating tensions with Iran. It is clear that over the last several weeks Iran has attacked pipelines and ships of other nations and created threat streams against American interests in Iraq," Graham said in a pair of tweets.

He added that "if the Iranian threats against American personnel and interests are activated we must deliver an overwhelming military response. Stand firm Mr. President."

<..snip..>

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/444561-graham-says-bolton-briefed-him-on-iran-tells-trump-to-stand-firm
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Online TomSea

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Quote
Pentagon to present plans to send 10,000 more troops to Middle East, officials say
Plans aim to beef up defenses against potential Iranian threats as tensions between the countries continue to simmer

The Pentagon on Thursday will present plans to the White House to send up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, in a move to beef up defenses against potential Iranian threats, US officials said Wednesday.

The officials said no final decision had been made yet, and it was not clear if the White House would approve sending all or just some of the requested forces. Officials said the move was not in response to any new threat from Iran but was aimed at reinforcing security in the region. They said the troops would be defensive forces, and the discussions include additional Patriot missile batteries, more ships and increased efforts to monitor Iran.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans have not been formally announced.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/22/us-troop-increase-pentagon-middle-east-iran

Just on the radio, congress was discussing this as well today, "policy on Iran" and wanted us to be solid in our designated policy.  That kind of surprised me.

Online sneakypete

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Just on the radio, congress was discussing this as well today, "policy on Iran" and wanted us to be solid in our designated policy.  That kind of surprised me.

@TomSea

MY kneejerk reaction to this is "HELL NO! If we aren't going to get serious about wiping Islam off the face of the Earth,leave our soldiers here and let them kill each other off to their hearts content,and fire them up with missiles if they attack us again."

BUT......,I honestly don't know what their plans are or what is going to be involved. A defensive force with the authority and to attack if necessary and the goods to do the deed is one thing. Regular Army infantry divisions is another.
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@TomSea

MY kneejerk reaction to this is "HELL NO! If we aren't going to get serious about wiping Islam off the face of the Earth,leave our soldiers here and let them kill each other off to their hearts content,and fire them up with missiles if they attack us again."

BUT......,I honestly don't know what their plans are or what is going to be involved. A defensive force with the authority and to attack if necessary and the goods to do the deed is one thing. Regular Army infantry divisions is another.

@sneakypete

I don't think we have enough information about the mission to say yet.  10K doesn't seem like enough to get the job done.
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Online sneakypete

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@sneakypete

I don't think we have enough information about the mission to say yet.  10K doesn't seem like enough to get the job done.

@Cyber Liberty

It's not even a down payment. What scares me is the politicians always start low to not alarm anyone,and then the numbers start to build and build,and suddenly there are a LOT of people downrange. We all know what happens when politicians looking for headlines have masses of troops lined up along someone's border. They end up using them.

Don't get me wrong. I ain't happy about it,but if they would use the troops to go in and kill off half or more of the population of those Muslim countries and then leave after warning them they MIGHT come back and finish the job if they aren't good,would be one thing. Purposely dragging out a war while refusing to end it because various politicians and those connected to politicians pull in a lot of contributions and military contracts and the money related to all that is a whole different thing.

NEVER fight a war you don't intend on winning quickly.
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Offline EdJames

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@Cyber Liberty

It's not even a down payment. What scares me is the politicians always start low to not alarm anyone,and then the numbers start to build and build,and suddenly there are a LOT of people downrange. We all know what happens when politicians looking for headlines have masses of troops lined up along someone's border. They end up using them.

Don't get me wrong. I ain't happy about it,but if they would use the troops to go in and kill off half or more of the population of those Muslim countries and then leave after warning them they MIGHT come back and finish the job if they aren't good,would be one thing. Purposely dragging out a war while refusing to end it because various politicians and those connected to politicians pull in a lot of contributions and military contracts and the money related to all that is a whole different thing.

NEVER fight a war you don't intend on winning quickly.

@sneakypete

"Perpetual, low-grade war" is a strategy designed to accomplish a number of objectives, primarily to put $$$ in select pockets; but victory over the enemy is certainly not one of them.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #69 on: May 22, 2019, 11:23:09 PM »
@TomSea, thanks for keeping us informed on this.
"I ask, sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people, except for a few public officials." – George Mason, Virginia Ratifying Convention, June 1788

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Online Cyber Liberty

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@Cyber Liberty

It's not even a down payment. What scares me is the politicians always start low to not alarm anyone,and then the numbers start to build and build,and suddenly there are a LOT of people downrange. We all know what happens when politicians looking for headlines have masses of troops lined up along someone's border. They end up using them.

Don't get me wrong. I ain't happy about it,but if they would use the troops to go in and kill off half or more of the population of those Muslim countries and then leave after warning them they MIGHT come back and finish the job if they aren't good,would be one thing. Purposely dragging out a war while refusing to end it because various politicians and those connected to politicians pull in a lot of contributions and military contracts and the money related to all that is a whole different thing.

NEVER fight a war you don't intend on winning quickly.

@sneakypete

Then there were the lowballs thrown by Obastard.  He asked how many troops would be needed to pacify the Afghans and he deliberately sent only 75% of what was requested.  Result:  A bunch of dead American soldiers.
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Online TomSea

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Re: Iran Tensions Thread (updates)
« Reply #71 on: June 05, 2019, 11:55:01 PM »
Quote
What a War With Iran Would Look Like
By Ilan Goldenberg

Tensions between Iran and the United States are at their highest point in years. The 2015 Iran nuclear agreement is teetering. The Trump administration is using sanctions to strangle the Iranian economy and in May deployed an aircraft carrier, a missile defense battery, and four bombers to the Middle East. Washington has evacuated nonessential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad, citing intelligence suggesting that Iran is increasingly willing to hit U.S. targets through its military proxies abroad.

The United States also stated that Iran almost certainly perpetrated the recent damage to oil tankers flagged by Saudi Arabia, Norway, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and claimed that Iran had temporarily loaded missiles onto small boats in the Persian Gulf. In early May, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton publicly threatened a response to any Iranian attacks, “whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards [sic] Corps or regular Iranian forces.”

The good news is that the situation is not as bad as it appears. None of the players—with the possible exception of Bolton—seem to really want a war. Iran’s military strategy is to keep tensions at a low boil and avoid a direct confrontation with the United States. Washington struck a tough public posture with its recent troop deployment, but the move was neither consequential nor terribly unusual. If the United States were truly preparing for a war, the flow of military assets into the region would be much more dramatic.

Read more at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-06-04/what-war-iran-would-look

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Iran is 'six months away from an atomic bomb'
« Reply #72 on: June 06, 2019, 12:03:14 AM »
Quote
Iran is 'six months away from an atomic bomb'
Yoni Kempinski, 05/06/19 10:31 Share

Olli Heinonen, who headed the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) security team and served as the organizations' deputy director general, on Wednesday morning told Army Radio that Israelis on the whole are not aware of the severity of the Iranian threat.

"Israelis need to be worried, and the Gulf states also have reason for concern," Heinonen said. "How will you be able to ensure your security if Iran achieves nuclear abilities?"

In the full interview, which will be aired Thursday morning, Heinonen said that despite IAEA's claims, Iran can develop nuclear weapons in up to six to eight months.

Slamming IAEA's handling of the threat, Heinonen said the agency ignores Tehran's race to achieve nuclear weapons. In his opinion, even the Trump administration's decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or "Iran deal" serves Iran's purposes.

Read more at: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/264205

Who knows? Drudge put this up, I'd think if there is a real threat, Israel or someone (us?) will conduct strikes on them.

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Iran Is Too Smart to Go to War
« Reply #73 on: June 07, 2019, 12:17:52 AM »
Quote
Iran Is Too Smart to Go to War
By Prof. Hillel Frisch



Tehran from the air, photo by Jeanne Menjoulet via Flickr CC

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,192, June 5, 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: If the Iranians have their way and are able to control the level of the flames, they will make sure that tensions with the US fall short of war due to the massive disparity in military capability and lack of mutual vulnerability. A Hezbollah attack on Israel in such a scenario would lead to Hezbollah’s destruction, a result Tehran would prefer to avoid.

There has been much belligerent rhetoric and saber-rattling between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the US of late – for example, the announced arrival of a USAF aircraft carrier to the Gulf area. Many analysts are speculating what will happen if war breaks out between the two.

Not so fast. If the Iranians have their way, they will make sure that tensions fall far short of war.

Read more at: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-escalation-war/

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Iran to release US permanent resident Nizar Zakka
« Reply #74 on: June 07, 2019, 12:19:53 AM »
Quote
Iran to release US permanent resident Nizar Zakka


The Lebanese national was kidnapped and taken hostage in Tehran in 2015
Nizar Zakka, who Iran agreed to release on Tuesday. AP

Iran said it will release US permanent resident Nizar Zakka, the Lebanese foreign ministry said on Monday.

President Hassan Rouhani is ready to receive a Lebanese delegation for Mr Zakka’s extradition, the foreign ministry statement said.

Mr Zakka’s brother confirmed his release, thanking all of those who helped to ­secure it.

Read more at: https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/iran-to-release-us-permanent-resident-nizar-zakka-1.870374


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