Iran Crisis Thread (updates)

[edpc]

LONDON - Iran refrained from shooting down a US plane with 35 people on board that was accompanying the downed drone in the Gulf, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Friday.

Probably an RC-135.

https://www.military.com/equipment/rc-135v-w-rivet-joint

[edpc]

The reason why the strike was called off is emerging. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated at the launch-didn't want the confrontation. Perhaps Trumps diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

Wrong. They were crowing about it all day yesterday and had their U.N. ambassador submit a letter of protest, over the ‘airspace incursion,’ and claimed self defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. Generals don’t order that.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-news-country-claims-shot-down-drone-was-over-iranian-territory-2019-06-20/


We know why it was called off. Trump said so, as noted above. In 1988, the Iranians mined the gulf, which resulted in damage to one of our warships, with no loss of life. The response from the US left the Iranians with half their fleet and dozens dead.

[TomSea]

Boston Globe is reporting Trump called off retaliatory strikes because he was told people would be killed.

Israel also doesn't have their soldiers at risk in their precautionary actions, pulling off these pinpoint strikes.

Of course, IDF soldiers are highly vulnerable in defending Israel but they are not sending their army to faraway places.

[TomSea]

Just heard on Fox Business that new information came to Trump that made him call off strike as not proportional. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated by the launch against the drone- didn't want to confrontation. Maybe Trump's diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

Yep; and there's that quote too in the OP:

"We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone," Trump tweeted.

Better than just blundering into things though, I understand those calling for action.

Trump conflated two euphemisms, 'half-cocked" and "locked and loaded", oh well, imho, better to err on the side of caution or however that saying goes.

[aligncare]

Just heard on Fox Business that new information came to Trump that made him call off strike as not proportional. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated by the launch against the drone- didn't want to confrontation. Maybe Trump's diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

That’s my understanding, too.

Yes, contrary to the phony political mythology about his lack of presidential temperament, the president showed great restraint and clarity here. Exploding heads in the Washington foreign policy and defense community, notwithstanding.

[jpsb]

Avoiding a war is a good thing. Now if Iran attacks us again the war is on them not us.

Trump did good.

[GrouchoTex]

"We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone," Trump tweeted

I can respect that.
My own feeling is fix that we our border issues, which is quite literally an invasion of trained people.
These people are trained all right, on how to respond when caught, then disappear without going to their asylum hearings.

I can understand the US responding in kind, which would be more of a monetary response than one that would cause casualties, in this case.
I'd like the attention focused here before we send anymore of our youth into harm's way, especially over a drone.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled.....

....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!....


....On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not....

....proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new,  and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!


6:03 AM - 21 Jun 2019

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055392488374272

[Right_in_Virginia]

Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified accountï‚™ @realDonaldTrump 

President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled.....

....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!....


....On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not....

....proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new,  and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!



6:03 AM - 21 Jun 2019

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055392488374272 

POTUS sees the situation clearly, asks the right questions and understands our military might can be unleashed when we see fit---no need to panic,

This pleases me.  

[Absalom]

When you have neither any idea who you are, nor the essence of your enemy,
you behave as Trump did; making a monumental jackass of yourself in publicizing
private foreign policy/military details w/another brainless tweet.
For Trump, as long as he gets attention, nothing else matters.
His fan club will applaud yet plain people clearly see this narcissist for the shallow
opportunist he has always been.

[Restored]

I'm not believing any of this.

[WhatWouldReaganDo]

I'm not believing any of this.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, has likely been "cocked and loaded" on many occasions.

[Free Vulcan]

Just heard on Fox Business that new information came to Trump that made him call off strike as not proportional. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated by the launch against the drone- didn't want to confrontation. Maybe Trump's diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

If that is true, then it sounds like the mullahs don't have complete control over their nation and military, which is even a scarier thought.

[Victoria33]

[/quote
@Applewood
@Absalom

Just saw Foreign Affairs Chairman of the House say he was in the White House with others being told about the coming strike and Trump knew then there could be causalities.  This chairman also said the military would have told him that from the beginning.  It appears Trump let the preps keep going and waited intentionally to stop it  when the countdown was 10 minutes.  That way he can say he is the guy with the power who can prevent the killing of Iranians.  There is always a "me" reason why Trump does what he does.

[Victoria33]

When you have neither any idea who you are, nor the essence of your enemy,
you behave as Trump did; making a monumental jackass of yourself in publicizing
private foreign policy/military details w/another brainless tweet.
For Trump, as long as he gets attention, nothing else matters.
His fan club will applaud yet plain people clearly see this narcissist for the shallow
opportunist he has always been.

@Absalom

You accurately describe the man.

[Right_in_Virginia]

@Absalom

You accurately describe the man.

No he doesn't.   

[austingirl]

Gen. Keane said that the president reversed that decision after United States intelligence sources had come into new information that the Iranian commander who ordered the strike had acted on his own and was being disciplined for his actions.

t is unlikely President Trump will allow himself to be rolled by a hostile foreign nation, but it is even more unlikely that he’ll add his name to the list of presidents who have allowed themselves to be drawn into unnecessary wars in the Mid-East.

thebeltwayreport.com/2019/06/breaking-trump-was-moments-away-from-wiping-iran-off-the-map-then-something-changed-he-called-it-off-heres-why/

[txradioguy]

I thought you were kidding....


"I find it hard to believe it was intentional. I think it could've been somebody that was loose and stupid," Trump said. "It was a very foolish move, that I can tell you."

Trump assured that the situation is "all going to work out."

The President also said that it made a "big, big difference" that the drone — which by definition is unmanned — had "nobody in" it.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iran-us-drone-shot-down-latest-intl/h_4c600f46e207758e98cebee28ff3dcd2


The general in charge of the IRGC was appointed by the mullahs, so it’s doubtful the missile launch and subsequent released statement was done without their approval. Also, this is the second time, within a week, they have fired up on one of our drones, over the gulf.


Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami said Iran is ready for war.

"Shooting down the American spy drone had a clear, decisive, firm and accurate message," he said.

"The message is that the guardians of the borders of Islamic Iran will decisively respond to the violation of any stranger to this land. The only solution for the enemies is to respect the territorial integrity and national interests of Iran."

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2019/06/20/iran-shoots-down-us-drone-n2548634

IIRC that same General said earlier this morning that they could have chosen to shoot down one of the P-8 Poseidon manned recon jets in the airea but picked the unmanned one instead.

[Bill Cipher]

Trump made exactly the right decision on this one, and in my view it was a decision from strength, not a decision from vacillation or weakness. 

If he can just capitalize on this, it moves the US agenda forward. 

[Sanguine]

Trump made exactly the right decision on this one, and in my view it was a decision from strength, not a decision from vacillation or weakness. 

If he can just capitalize on this, it moves the US agenda forward.

 

[libertybele]

And, he made the point that we are willing and able to act.  His unpredictability is oddly enough one of his strengths.

In this case, absolutely.   

[TomSea]

@Absalom

You accurately describe the man.

Trish Regan, Rush Limbaugh, Donald Trump, Max Boot, as long as one is attacking in a personable way, some known name, I guess, they are filling their role in the forum because they've all been negatively talked of. They must belong to a club.

[TomSea]

Saudi intelligence chief lobbies London for strikes against Iran: UK source
Top Saudi intelligence official pleads for limited UK attacks against Iranian targets, source tells MEE

Missile launched by Yemen's Houthis is displayed at Saudi military base in Al-Kharj on Friday (Reuters)
 By MEE staff
Published date: 21 June 2019 20:28 UTC | Last update: 3 hours 13 min ago

A Saudi intelligence chief pleaded with British authorities to carry out limited strikes against Iranian military targets, just hours after Donald Trump aborted planned US attacks against the Islamic Republic, a senior UK official told Middle East Eye.

The intelligence chief was accompanied by Saudi diplomat Adel al-Jubeir on his trip to London, the source said.

Still, the Saudi lobbying efforts fell on deaf ears, according to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

"Our people were sceptical," the source said, adding that the Saudi official was told a plain "no" in response to the request.

Read more at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-intelligence-chief-lobbied-london-strikes-against-iran-uk-source

Can't resist posting this though, Middle East Eye (MEE) is often wrong in stories, they run with stuff they are told and I guess, that's not too bad. This sounds somewhat plausible. Grain of salt.

[TomSea]

Brian Hook: If Iran is not countered in Yemen, conflict risk will increase

The United States envoy on Iran, Brian Hook. (File photo: AFP)
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Friday, 21 June 2019

The United States envoy on Iran, Brian Hook, said on Friday that if Iran was not countered in Yemen, the risk of a regional conflict in the Middle East will increase.

“Iran’s efforts to use surrogates to attack Saudi Arabia and destabilize the region needs to be countered,” he said.

It is important that Iran “does not gain a foothold in Yemen” to threaten the strait of Bab al-Mandeb, he added.

Read more at: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2019/06/21/Brian-Hook-If-Iran-is-not-countered-in-Yemen-regional-conflict-risk-will-increase.html

[TomSea]

Photos: Ten years ago, Iranian student's death sparked outrage
    Jun 20, 2019

On June 20, 2009, Iranian music student Neda Agha Soltan, 27, was gunned down during election protests in Iran.

Her dying moments were caught on video and circulated widely on the Internet, making her name a rallying cry for the opposition and sparking international outrage.

2009: Iranian student Neda - Israel


Israelis of Iranian origin hold signs, a flag and images purporting to show Neda Agha Soltan, killed during a protest in Tehran, as they gather to express their solidarity with the Iranian people in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, June 23, 2009. The death of the woman identified as Neda Agha Soltan was captured on amateur videos and spread around the world in less than 48 hours on YouTube, Facebook, blogs and Twitter. (AP Photo / Ariel Schalit)

2009: Iranian student Neda - Washington


A candlelight vigil commemorating the end of the traditional 40-day mourning period for Neda Agha Soltan is seen near the White House in Washington Thursday, July 30, 2009. Soltan was a 27-year-old music student who was shot to death June 20, 2009 in Tehran, Iran. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Read more with additional photos at: https://madison.com/news/archives/photos-ten-years-ago-iranian-student-s-death-sparked-outrage/collection_fd272e05-434c-5434-8cfe-d5a67b8889e4.html#13

Good job by this Wisconsin website to post this. I kind of remember it, this was before the Arab spring. Sad. Maybe she rest in peace.



And I think a lot of Americans questioned why we were not giving, at least, emotional support to the Iranian protesters.