Iran Crisis Thread (updates)

[TomSea]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam

Good sized.

[Victoria33]

@Victoria33
I just saw President Trump say in the Oval Office he thinks it was  "mistake," in the sense the shoot-down was not approved by the Mullahs.  He's trying to give them a chance to back it down, but I doubt they'll avail themselves of it.  I expect an Iranian denial and instead a ratchet up of tensions.

@Cyber Liberty

I also saw him say that.  It's not a "small thingy" for a general or so, to mistakenly shoot down a drone.

[Cyber Liberty]

@Cyber Liberty

I also saw him say that.  It's not a "small thingy" for a general or so, to mistakenly shoot down a drone.

The Mullahs will make Trump look like a fool when they come out and say, "No, we shot it down on purpose."

[edpc]

@Victoria33

I just saw President Trump say in the Oval Office he thinks it was  "mistake," in the sense the shoot-down was not approved by the Mullahs.  He's trying to give them a chance to back it down, but I doubt they'll avail themselves of it. 

I expect an Iranian denial and instead a ratchet up of tensions.

I thought you were kidding....


"I find it hard to believe it was intentional. I think it could've been somebody that was loose and stupid," Trump said. "It was a very foolish move, that I can tell you."

Trump assured that the situation is "all going to work out."

The President also said that it made a "big, big difference" that the drone — which by definition is unmanned — had "nobody in" it.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/iran-us-drone-shot-down-latest-intl/h_4c600f46e207758e98cebee28ff3dcd2


The general in charge of the IRGC was appointed by the mullahs, so it’s doubtful the missile launch and subsequent released statement was done without their approval. Also, this is the second time, within a week, they have fired up on one of our drones, over the gulf.


Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami said Iran is ready for war.

"Shooting down the American spy drone had a clear, decisive, firm and accurate message," he said.

"The message is that the guardians of the borders of Islamic Iran will decisively respond to the violation of any stranger to this land. The only solution for the enemies is to respect the territorial integrity and national interests of Iran."

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2019/06/20/iran-shoots-down-us-drone-n2548634

[Wingnut]

I thought about that, Pete, but since we've "fought" the last few wars with both hands tied behind our backs, they just might think they can best us.  Or, that we will best ourselves.

Our proxy army could pull off a surprise surgical attack on a specific targets and be home in time for an evening bagel.

[TomSea]

But it seems we may be in for a short-to-long-term haul of these pin-pr*ck strikes.

I just read something and it is probably right, a serious war may well see the end of the reign of the Mullahs, so the ruling regime likely does not like this.

Even if we had had a response lined up, I thought any reaction would largely be futile like bombing some facility or something, a relatively ho-hum reaction.

Nothing serious and the Mullahs would be able to say "See, the Americans attacked us but did no good".  We might help the Mullahs in acting in some provocative way.

This is all on a psychological level as well now.

[Victoria33]

@Cyber Liberty

Trump approved a strike - several hours ago, planes were in the air and ships in position.  Then, they got a "stand down" order.  Think that was about 7 pm, central time this evening, 6-20-2019.  CNN reported it in breaking news about 10 pm.

[edpc]

Trump approved a strike - several hours ago, planes were in the air and ships in position.  Then, they got a "stand down" order.


The bone spurs came out of remission. Yesterday, when asked if he would retaliate, the response was, “You'll soon find out.”

So, we have.

[edpc]

FAA prohibits 'all US carriers' from flying over Iran as tensions rise

All flight operations in the overwater area of the Tehran Flight Information Region (FIR) (OIIX) above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman only are prohibited until further notice due to heightened military activities and increased political tensions in the region, which present an inadvertent risk to U.S. civil aviation operations and potential for miscalculation or mis-identification

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/faa-prohibits-us-carriers-flying-over-iran-tensions-042500153--abc-news-topstories.html

[Elderberry]

Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html

President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.

As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.

Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.

The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.

The abrupt reversal put a halt to what would have been the president’s third military action against targets in the Middle East. Mr. Trump had struck twice at targets in Syria, in 2017 and 2018.

It was not clear whether Mr. Trump simply changed his mind on the strikes or whether the administration altered course because of logistics or strategy. It was also not clear whether the attacks might still go forward.

Asked about the plans for a strike and the decision to hold back, the White House declined to comment, as did Pentagon officials. No government officials asked The New York Times to withhold the article.

More at link.

[edpc]

Exclusive: Trump warned Iran via Oman that U.S. attack was imminent, called for talks - Iranian officials

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent.

“In his message, Trump said he was against any war with Iran and wanted to talk to Tehran about various issues ... he gave a short period of time to get our response but Iran’s immediate response was that it is up to Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei to decide about this issue,” one of the officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The second official said: “We made it clear that the leader is against any talks, but the message will be conveyed to him to make a decision ... However, we told the Omani official that any attack against Iran will have regional and international consequences.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa-oman-exclusive/exclusive-trump-warned-iran-via-oman-that-u-s-attack-was-imminent-called-for-talks-iranian-officials-idUSKCN1TM0UZ

[massadvj]

It is time for Trump to be patient.  Put all military assets in place.  Enough to take out everything Iran has.  Do not provoke anything.  Let Iran continue its escalating provocations until the rest of the world and even the Democrats start demanding action.  There is no reason to rush anything.  Iran's actions are very clearly designed to arouse suspicions that the USA is conducting false flag operations in order to provoke a war.  Trump needs to stop listening to the deep state and start playing some serious chess.

When Iran's actions provoke to the point of global outrage, then take the regime out completely.  No ground troops.  No nation building.  Just complete and utter devastation of every military and strategic asset in the country.

[Bill Cipher]

It is time for Trump to be patient.  Put all military assets in place.  Enough to take out everything Iran has.  Do not provoke anything.  Let Iran continue its escalating provocations until the rest of the world and even the Democrats start demanding action.  There is no reason to rush anything.  Iran's actions are very clearly designed to arouse suspicions that the USA is conducting false flag operations in order to provoke a war.  Trump needs to stop listening to the deep state and start playing some serious chess.

When Iran's actions provoke to the point of global outrage, then take the regime out completely.  No ground troops.  No nation building.  Just complete and utter devastation of every military and strategic asset in the country.

Exactly

[Wingnut]

It is time for Trump to be patient.  ,/snip>

When Iran's actions provoke to the point of global outrage, then take the regime out completely.  No ground troops.  No nation building.  Just complete and utter devastation of every military and strategic asset in the country.

Spot on!

[mystery-ak]

Trump confirms US was 'cocked and loaded' for Iran strike
By Brett Samuels - 06/21/19 09:11 AM EDT

President Trump on Friday confirmed that the U.S. military was "cocked and loaded" to retaliate against Iran after the country shot down a U.S. surveillance drone, but backed off at the last minute.

In a series of tweets, Trump said he opted not to follow through because he felt the response would not be "proportionate" to the Iranian action.


"We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone," Trump tweeted.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/449680-trump-confirms-us-military-was-cocked-and-loaded-for-retaliatory

[mystery-ak]

Brian Kilmeade: Trump's lack of action in Iran 'looks like weakness'
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/brian-kilmeade-trumps-lack-of-action-in-iran-looks-like-weakness

[txradioguy]

President Donald Trump reportedly ordered a missile strike against Iran to begin early Friday morning, but then halted operations.

The strike was on until 7 p.m. Thursday night, according to the New York Times, which is citing senior administration officials as sources. The president was allegedly aiming to hit military targets in Iran and had positioned aircraft and ships to begin firing, but ordered a stand-down at the last minute.

The military action would have been in response to the downing of a U.S. Navy drone by an Iranian surface-to-air missile on Thursday. While the U.S. military insists the drone was in international airspace, the Iranians continue to say the unmanned aircraft had wandered into Iranian airspace.

Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, described the alleged violation as crossing “our red line,” according to the Mehr news agency.

“We are not going to get engaged in a war with any country, but we are fully prepared for war,” Salami is quoted by the agency as saying, while he was officiating at a martial ceremony in Sanandaj, Iran. “Today’s incident was a clear sign of this precise message, so we are continuing our resistance.”

Although it’s unclear exactly why Trump reportedly decided to abort the strike, the president’s national security advisers appear divided as to whether a military option in response to apparent Iranian aggression is the appropriate one.

https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/21/report-trump-air-strike-calls-off-iran/

[txradioguy]

Read similar stories about this earlier this morning.  No reason for the change of heart.  Maybe there is a good one, but at this point, Trump now looks weak and indecisive.  Not good. 

Personally, if this story is true -- I'm glad the mission was called off.  Not looking forward to another Middle East war.

This administration needs to dust off the plans from Operation Praying Mantis and take care of the Iranian threat that way...again.

[austingirl]

Just heard on Fox Business that new information came to Trump that made him call off strike as not proportional. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated by the launch against the drone- didn't want to confrontation. Maybe Trump's diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

[edpc]

“We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights [sic] when I asked, how many will die,” Trump tweeted. “150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone.”

“I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world,” the president continued. “Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-cocked-loaded-for-iran-strike-called-it-off-with-10-minutes-to-spare-140408156.html


When the Iranians and Norks tried to build a reactor in Syria, the Israelis bombed it. When they find Iranian physicists working on the nuclear program, they kill them. If convoys are moving weapons from Syria to Lebanon, they’re hit with air strikes. Iranian military personnel and facilities around the Damascus airport are greeted with missiles. They don’t care if Tehran gets mad or if it’s disproportional. Iran can’t have nuclear weapons? Neither could North Korea, but they successfully tested a high yield device on his watch. They’ve shared tech and research with Iran for years. This president pees sitting down.

[austingirl]

The reason why the strike was called off is emerging. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated at the launch-didn't want the confrontation. Perhaps Trumps diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

[mystery-ak]

merged two similar stories

[Sanguine]

The reason why the strike was called off is emerging. Supposedly, the ayatollahs were infuriated at the launch-didn't want the confrontation. Perhaps Trumps diplomatic suggestion that it was a mistake worked.

And, he made the point that we are willing and able to act.  His unpredictability is oddly enough one of his strengths.

[TomSea]

Iran claims 'indisputable' proof US violated airspace; Trump reportedly walks back strike plans
i24NEWS
Latest Revision June 21, 2019, 3:04 AM

The US president's mixed messaging since the attack has left the world unsure what the next move will be

US President Donald Trump approved but then walked back a plan to launch strikes against Iranian targets on Thursday, The New York Times reported, after Iran shot down a US drone in what the president termed a "big mistake."

The US was planning to hit "a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries" Thursday evening, the newspaper said, citing senior administration officials, but the plan was suddenly aborted in its early stages.

Read more at: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/1561089133-trump-approves-then-calls-off-operation-on-iran-strikes-after-drone-shot-down-report?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=intl_middle_east&utm_content=en1&hootPostID=5a9dafb21b6cdef9c05007428d5684d2

Take it or leave it but this was reported as well, Israeli news.

[TomSea]

Iran says it refrained from shooting down U.S. plane with 35 on board - Tasnim news
By REUTERS
June 21, 2019 16:09

LONDON - Iran refrained from shooting down a US plane with 35 people on board that was accompanying the downed drone in the Gulf, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Friday.

Read more at: https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Iran-says-it-refrained-from-shooting-down-US-plane-with-35-on-board-Tasnim-news-593262

Again, take it or reject the news. Just posting.

Israel is not engaged in multiple wars, Afghanistan and so on. I think the country, USA, is a bit war weary at this point.

Also, if Iran had got hit, it might have galvanized some support of Iran worldwide really, at least in some countries.  It might not have been an effective strike. Israel hits those convoys but it seems they are doing that now, about every other week if not more frequent.