The United States imports and exports substantial volumes of petroleum

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The United States imports and exports substantial volumes of petroleum
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38672
MARCH 13, 2019



U.S. net trade of petroleum, which includes crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas plant liquids, has fallen in recent years, reaching 2.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018. This level is the lowest level of net petroleum trade (imports minus exports) since 1967. At the same time, total U.S. gross petroleum trade (imports plus exports) have reached an all-time high of 17.5 million b/d in 2018. The result has been a growing role for the United States in world petroleum trade.



Crude oil imports have decreased in recent years as U.S. crude oil production has increased. After averaging a record high of 10.1 million b/d in 2005, crude oil imports fell by 2.8 million b/d to an average of 7.3 million b/d in 2014. Since then, crude oil imports have increased slightly, averaging 7.7 million b/d in 2018.

Not all crude oil is the same quality. Most of the reduction in U.S. imports was of light, sweet crude oil, as those barrels were replaced by domestic production of a similar quality. U.S. crude oil exports have also increased as domestic production has risen. U.S. crude oil exports have set annual record highs in each year since 2014, most recently averaging 2.0 million b/d in 2018.

At the same time, U.S. refinery runs have been setting record highs. The increase in refinery output of petroleum products has outpaced the increase in U.S. consumption of petroleum products such as distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and propane, leading to an increase in exports.

Total U.S. petroleum product exports averaged a record 5.6 million b/d in 2018. Distillate and gasoline exports have increased, particularly to countries in the Western Hemisphere. Propane exports have also increased, mostly to Asian markets.

EIA expects these trends to continue over the next several years. In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that the United States will become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products on a monthly basis later this year and on an annual basis in 2020.

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SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
U.S. Liquid Fuels
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/us_oil.php
Release Date: March 12, 2019

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64 per barrel (b) in February, up $5/b from January 2019 and about $1/b lower than at the same time last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $63/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $9/b lower than Brent prices in the first half of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and throughout 2020.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in February, down slightly from the January average. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million b/d in 2019 and 13.0 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

Net imports of U.S. crude oil and petroleum products fell from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.3 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.0 million b/d in 2019 and to an average net export level of 0.1 million b/d in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA forecasts that the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 0.9 million b/d.