Author Topic: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December  (Read 2121 times)

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US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« on: January 04, 2019, 02:33:41 pm »
US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
by James Langford
 | January 04, 2019 08:35 AM



U.S. employers added 312,000 workers in December as the economy benefited from retail hiring during the busy holiday shopping season and the country's economic expansion continued.

The increase reported by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday topped the average estimate of 180,000 from economists surveyed by FactSet and remained well above the level needed to keep up with inflation. The unemployment rate, however, inched up to 3.9 percent from a nearly 50-year low of 3.7 percent.

Retailers hired 24,000 new employees during the month as purchases in stores and e-commerce sites surged to the highest in six years. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, retail spending grew 5.1 percent to $850 billion, according to a Mastercard SpendingPulse report released the day after Christmas.

Other notable hiring gains occurred in the healthcare industry, which added 50,000 workers, and bars and restaurants, which brought in 41,000 new employees. Payroll growth for November, meanwhile, was boosted to 176,000 from an original figure of 155,000.

Still, employment growth is likely to slow this year as benefits from the 2017 tax cut for businesses fade, said Michael Gapen, an economist with British lender Barclays Plc. He predicts gains of about 160,000 a month, compared with an average of about 200,000 for much of 2018.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/us-payrolls-shatter-expectations-surge-312-000-in-december
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2019, 02:34:10 pm »
 :cool:

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2019, 03:01:56 pm »
US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December


The most lagging of the lagging indicators.   

2019 will not be kind to the unemployment rates.  But I am sure Trump will make sure he is fully accountable for those increases.  /s

Trump is the anti-Truman.  No bucks stop there.   Take full benefit of the good news blame others for the bad.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 03:05:09 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2019, 03:19:22 pm »
Trump is God!!!!

Offline Applewood

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2019, 04:04:06 pm »
Note that the jobs are primarily in retail -- as in temporary jobs for the holiday season.  Those jobs are already gone. 

This statistic is therefore meaningless and not a reason to celebrate.

Offline thackney

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2019, 04:26:18 pm »
Note that the jobs are primarily in retail -- as in temporary jobs for the holiday season.  Those jobs are already gone. 

This statistic is therefore meaningless and not a reason to celebrate.

24,000 out of 312,000 is not the primary cause of the jobs. 

50,000 were health care, more than double the retail number.

Construction 38,000
Manufacturing 32,000
Professional and business services 43,000


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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2019, 04:35:57 pm »
The most lagging of the lagging indicators.   

2019 will not be kind to the unemployment rates.  But I am sure Trump will make sure he is fully accountable for those increases.  /s

Trump is the anti-Truman.  No bucks stop there.   Take full benefit of the good news blame others for the bad.

The fact is, ALL of these monthly time series data on the economy are very volatile, month to month. In my view investors place way too much emphasis on them given this, as the data DO move markets, day to day.

Recessions have different origins but always some commonality, in that they involve a cluster of errors ...usually via the falsification of interest rates that have led to "malinvestment" that must now be liquidated, causing layoffs. Of course politicians can also do stupid things such as raise taxes, choking off investment, or start trade wars that shuts off demand for our exports, etc.

I find it very hard to believe we are headed for recession in 2019 but I do worry that we are not going to sustain 3% real GDP growth which, in my view, would help Trump get re-elected ....it will be a lot easier for voters to toss him out if our economy is sluggish in 2020.
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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2019, 04:38:08 pm »
Trump is GOD!!!!!

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2019, 01:13:43 am »
Bigun wrote:
"I do worry that we are not going to sustain 3% real GDP growth which, in my view, would help Trump get re-elected ....it will be a lot easier for voters to toss him out if our economy is sluggish in 2020."

The economy -- whether "up some" or "down some" -- really is no longer an issue, insofar as politics are concerned.

These days, it's "ideology all the way".

The economy was doing well enough going into the November elections, and the Pubbies still took a drubbin' in the House...

Offline LMAO

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2019, 03:34:01 am »
The economy -- whether "up some" or "down some" -- really is no longer an issue, insofar as politics are concerned.

These days, it's "ideology all the way".

The economy was doing well enough going into the November elections, and the Pubbies still took a drubbin' in the House...

I agree.

BHO lost voters from 2008 in 2012 and the economy was still poor and he won re election
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2019, 05:54:31 am »
This AP headline has to be among the top five efforts to put a negative spin on good news.   :laugh:

Quote
US employers went on a surprising hiring spree in December
Associated Press, Jan 4, 2019

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers went on a hiring spree in December, adding a surprising 312,000 jobs and providing a dose of reassurance about the economy after a turbulent few months on Wall Street.

The job gains reported Friday by the Labor Department came despite a trade war with China, a global slowdown and a partial government shutdown now entering its third week.

The nation’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9 percent last month, but that, too, was considered a positive sign, reflecting an increase in Americans beginning to look for work. And average hourly pay improved 3.2 percent from a year ago.

Stocks surged on the news, along with word that the U.S. and China will hold trade talks next week and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed will be flexible in judging whether to raise interest rates further. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up 747 points, or 3.3 percent.

President Donald Trump called the job growth “GREAT” on Twitter.

The torrid hiring in December far outstripped the 180,000 jobs investors had been anticipating and could help ease fears that the economy’s expansion — now in the middle of its 10th year — may be coming to an end.


More:  https://apnews.com/f3925762c6f845dfab936b45c28b4176

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 05:56:06 am »
Quote
could help ease fears that the economy’s expansion — now in the middle of its 10th year —.

 :mauslaff:

Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 12:47:37 pm »
:mauslaff:

@Right_in_Virginia

That is a ridiculous quote.
If the last 10 years are what they call growth, I'd say these folks think lizards are alligators.

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2019, 01:10:49 pm »
I find it very hard to believe we are headed for recession in 2019 but I do worry that we are not going to sustain 3% real GDP growth which, in my view, would help Trump get re-elected ....it will be a lot easier for voters to toss him out if our economy is sluggish in 2020.

Maintaining a 5% growth rate in America (or even 6 or 7%) should be automatic.  And it would we if government stopped doing two simple things:

1.  Stop spending $1 trillion that you don't have each year

2.  Stop taxing money brought into this country from overseas.
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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2019, 01:21:16 pm »
Maintaining a 5% growth rate in America (or even 6 or 7%) should be automatic.  And it would we if government stopped doing two simple things:

1.  Stop spending $1 trillion that you don't have each year

2.  Stop taxing money brought into this country from overseas.

 :amen: But I would modify your Item 2. to read:  Stop taxing at the input end altogether and start taxing on the consumption end instead!


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Offline LMAO

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Re: US payrolls shatter expectations, surge 312,000 in December
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2019, 01:30:16 pm »
@Right_in_Virginia

That is a ridiculous quote.
If the last 10 years are what they call growth, I'd say these folks think lizards are alligators.

The economy did grow in that time. But it was a long period of substandard growth
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