Author Topic: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis  (Read 18788 times)

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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #50 on: November 19, 2018, 07:20:24 pm »
one-zero-zero-one-zero-zero-one

Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #51 on: November 19, 2018, 07:24:39 pm »
one-zero-zero-one-zero-zero-one

I don't think many are going to get that one.

And now it's stuck in my head.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #52 on: November 19, 2018, 07:25:19 pm »
I don't think many are going to get that one.

And now it's stuck in my head.

 :cool:

Offline dfwgator

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #53 on: November 19, 2018, 07:27:31 pm »
The point is that the consequences are worse if you're wrong. I know a lot of you may not think so, but solar and other green technology will continue to improve until it someday equals or outpaces fossil fuel in efficiency. If we can put people on the moon we can solve solar storage issues and a handful of other problems. Go look up solar progress and you will see that its growth is extremely impressive. I don't think that's going to stop. The energy we get from fossil fuel originally came from the sun. Does anybody really think it's not possible to more efficiently get energy from direct sunlight? The green revolution will happen either way. It's just a question of time.

I am all for coming up with alternative sources of energy, so that we don't have to invest so much blood and treasure in keeping the GD Saudis happy.

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #54 on: November 19, 2018, 07:29:26 pm »
There are two main approaches that we can take. We can continue as normal and let the market determine what forms of energy are used, or we can make big and probably cost inefficient changes in an effort to fight the possibility that humans are expediting climate change. I think the consequences are worse if AGW is actually happening and we do nothing. If it's not happening and we spend a ton of money on R&D to improve alternative energy then we will have expedited technology that I think will eventually take over anyway.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 07:30:13 pm by Dexter »
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #55 on: November 19, 2018, 07:32:06 pm »
The green revolution will happen either way. It's just a question of time.

No, it is just a question of economics.  If given a choice, people are always going to choose what serves them best.  Or in economic terms, whatever gives them the most utility for their last dollar spent.

Let's take hydrogen for example - a tangible form of electricity.  Put a gas station on one corner and a hydrogen station on the opposite corner.  The gas station sells gasoline for $3/gal.  The hydrogen station sells a 1-gal-gasoline equivalent of hydrogen for $9.  Which station is the consumer going to utilize?

If you truly want consumers to stop using carbon fuels, then you must find a way to generate electricity (without using carbon) for less money than the carbon fuel equivalent.  Until you do that, consumers will continue to choose carbon.

btw, all that carbon stored underground as gas, oil, and coal, started out in the atmosphere if you believe all the dinosaur nonsense.  Just sayin'

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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2018, 07:32:08 pm »
I happen to think science/technology R&D is one of the best investments humanity can possibly make. When solar takes over I want the panels being shipped all over the globe to have American flags on them, not Chinese or European ones.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #57 on: November 19, 2018, 07:33:38 pm »
No, it is just a question of economics.  If given a choice, people are always going to choose what serves them best.  Or in economic terms, whatever gives them the most utility for their last dollar spent.

Let's take hydrogen for example - a tangible form of electricity.  Put a gas station on one corner and a hydrogen station on the opposite corner.  The gas station sells gasoline for $3/gal.  The hydrogen station sells a 1-gal-gasoline equivalent of hydrogen for $9.  Which station is the consumer going to utilize?

If you truly want consumers to stop using carbon fuels, then you must find a way to generate electricity (without using carbon) for less money than the carbon fuel equivalent.  Until you do that, consumers will continue to choose carbon.

btw, all that carbon stored underground as gas, oil, and coal, started out in the atmosphere if you believe all the dinosaur nonsense.  Just sayin'

What say you to making big investments in improving these alternative energy technologies?
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #58 on: November 19, 2018, 07:44:13 pm »
I happen to think science/technology R&D is one of the best investments humanity can possibly make. When solar takes over I want the panels being shipped all over the globe to have American flags on them, not Chinese or European ones.

I think Government has proved to be that absolute worst at managing their R&D.  They are not incentivized properly to do the job honestly.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #59 on: November 19, 2018, 07:46:01 pm »
What say you to making big investments in improving these alternative energy technologies?

I have nothing against "making big investments" for that.  I have everything against Big Government forcibly taking money from taxpayers to do it.  See the difference?
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #60 on: November 19, 2018, 07:46:47 pm »
I think Government has proved to be that absolute worst at managing their R&D.  They are not incentivized properly to do the job honestly.

There has to be a way we can intelligently invest in R&D. I don't believe that it's impossible to expedite the growth of alternative energy technology.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #61 on: November 19, 2018, 07:47:49 pm »
I have nothing against "making big investments" for that.  I have everything against Big Government forcibly taking money from taxpayers to do it.  See the difference?

A whole lot of taxpayer money is wasted on far more unworthy causes.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #62 on: November 19, 2018, 07:49:10 pm »
it is just a question of economics.

We can expedite the growth of the technology so it's more capable of competing in the free market.
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #63 on: November 19, 2018, 07:53:17 pm »
There are two main approaches that we can take. We can continue as normal and let the market determine what forms of energy are used

In other words, allow consumers the freedom to choose for themselves.


.  .  . or we can make big and probably cost inefficient changes in an effort to fight the possibility that humans are expediting climate change.

Before we do that, you would first have to provide evidence that humans are expediting climate change.  Do that first, and then we can talk about costly inefficient changes at the point of a gun.


I think the consequences are worse if AGW is actually happening and we do nothing.

Considering that fully 100% of global warming is caused by the sun, what steps should we take to control solar output so that it remains constant with no more solar eruptions?  Maybe we could regulate the earth's orbit around the sun so that it remains constantly the same distance away from the sun instead of the wobbly harmonic elliptical orbit it currently has?


If it's not happening and we spend a ton of money on R&D to improve alternative energy then we will have expedited technology that I think will eventually take over anyway.


We?  Who is 'we'?  No one is stopping you from buying electric cars and putting solar panels on your house.  But don't be using the power of government to deny me incandescent bulbs (which are 100% efficient - 5% light, 95% heat) or plastic grocery bags (which leave a heck of a lot smaller carbon footprint than their paper counterparts).

Let the market decide.  If non-carbon is better economically, then consumers will figure that out on their own.  The invisible hand knows best.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

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"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #64 on: November 19, 2018, 07:53:52 pm »
A whole lot of taxpayer money is wasted on far more unworthy causes.

That is not a compelling argument for adding more waste.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #65 on: November 19, 2018, 07:58:45 pm »
That is not a compelling argument for adding more waste.

It's not waste first of all, and maybe we can cut some of the actual waste to make room for things that will actually help humanity and America in the long run. If we let China and Europe outpace us with technology we will become more and more irrelevant.
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #66 on: November 19, 2018, 08:00:47 pm »
The point is that the consequences are worse if you're wrong. I know a lot of you may not think so, but solar and other green technology will continue to improve until it someday equals or outpaces fossil fuel in efficiency. If we can put people on the moon we can solve solar storage issues and a handful of other problems. Go look up solar progress and you will see that its growth is extremely impressive. I don't think that's going to stop. The energy we get from fossil fuel originally came from the sun. Does anybody really think it's not possible to more efficiently get energy from direct sunlight? The green revolution will happen either way. It's just a question of time.
What might happen on some sunny day far away won't keep my family from freezing to death tonight. The bottom line is that current technologies are evolving, and NOT just in the solar sector--it is that evolution and development which led to the current boom in producing oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs, and is fueling our economic recovery, quite literally, such as that is.

When the renewable sector can put forth power with the capacity and the reliability of the more conventional means of producing energy, and do so without taxpayer subsidy, I think there will be something there.

Usually, such new methods are tried on a test basis and prototypes refined before going into production. Unfortunately, it seems as if those renewable energy platforms have often been rushed to market to take advantage of free money from the taxpayer's pocket, and not developed to the degree that they can compete on a level playing field. That day may yet come when those energy forms reach the ability to provide power for many uses, but it is a long ways off before motor fuels will be replaced.

While the growth of the tech was expedited by subsidy, having more units out there which are not up to the job is not a winning proposition. It just takes up a lot of space and consumes fiscal resources that could have been saved for the day when the technology was fully developed.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Hoodat

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #67 on: November 19, 2018, 08:01:52 pm »
We can expedite the growth of the technology so it's more capable of competing in the free market.

Uh, no.  That's not how it works.  No one had to expedite the growtn of technology so that petroleum could become capable of competing in the free market.  All it took was a chemical engineer to figure out a way to separate kerosene from crude oil which cost less than separating it from whale blubber.

Here's a newsflash for you.  Fascism doesn't work.  It cannot compete with capitalism.  An entrepreneur putting an idea into action for his own benefit will always beat out a bunch of government bureaucrats determined to tell Willy Messerschmitt what to produce in his factory.  You don't have a smartphone today because a bunch of bureaucrats decided to expedite cellphone technology.  You have one because some entrepreneur though he could make money selling them.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

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"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #68 on: November 19, 2018, 08:01:55 pm »
We?  Who is 'we'?  No one is stopping you from buying electric cars and putting solar panels on your house.  But don't be using the power of government to deny me incandescent bulbs (which are 100% efficient - 5% light, 95% heat) or plastic grocery bags (which leave a heck of a lot smaller carbon footprint than their paper counterparts).

Let the market decide.  If non-carbon is better economically, then consumers will figure that out on their own.  The invisible hand knows best.

Telling you you can't use a technology is a lot different than advocating for government funds to be spent on improving other forms of technology so they can compete.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #69 on: November 19, 2018, 08:05:48 pm »
tell Willy Messerschmitt what to produce in his factory.

You're assuming intentions that aren't there. I want the government to stop wasting so much money on nonsense so it can divert some funds to research that will unlock secrets that will compell Willy to produce those things on his own without coercion. If you think the government can't expedite the growth of technology you are simply wrong.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 08:10:46 pm by Dexter »
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #70 on: November 19, 2018, 08:08:05 pm »
What might happen on some sunny day far away won't keep my family from freezing to death tonight. The bottom line is that current technologies are evolving, and NOT just in the solar sector--it is that evolution and development which led to the current boom in producing oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs, and is fueling our economic recovery, quite literally, such as that is.

When the renewable sector can put forth power with the capacity and the reliability of the more conventional means of producing energy, and do so without taxpayer subsidy, I think there will be something there.

Usually, such new methods are tried on a test basis and prototypes refined before going into production. Unfortunately, it seems as if those renewable energy platforms have often been rushed to market to take advantage of free money from the taxpayer's pocket, and not developed to the degree that they can compete on a level playing field. That day may yet come when those energy forms reach the ability to provide power for many uses, but it is a long ways off before motor fuels will be replaced.

While the growth of the tech was expedited by subsidy, having more units out there which are not up to the job is not a winning proposition. It just takes up a lot of space and consumes fiscal resources that could have been saved for the day when the technology was fully developed.

I don't think we should try to force inefficient technology. I want smart people to have all of the funds they need to test and improve the technology. Subsidizing solar so it can pump out inefficient technology is stupid.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing."
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #71 on: November 19, 2018, 08:09:21 pm »
If we let China and Europe outpace us with technology we will become more and more irrelevant.
 
Whoa, hold the phone.  China doesn't outpace us in technology.  Their system does not encourage innovation.  Instead, it boasts the very same central planning that you advocate.  The result of which makes China the biggest carbon polluter on the planet.  This illustrates yet another pitfall of central planning - externalities.  Pollution is an externality, which is not part of the bureaucratic equation.  Which is why advancements in pollution controls and green energy originate in countries that embrace capitalism.
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #72 on: November 19, 2018, 08:10:50 pm »
It's not waste first of all, and maybe we can cut some of the actual waste to make room for things that will actually help humanity and America in the long run. If we let China and Europe outpace us with technology we will become more and more irrelevant.
We are helping humanity, @Dexter . What we disagree on is the way to do that. I do not agree that it is wise to produce vast numbers of devices or facilities which will not do the job at the expense of either industry which is getting the job done, or the average schmuck who is trying to feed their family.

Let the market decide.

Let those companies which pursue such technology do so with the help of their investors, who will gain if it works.

Do not force those who are getting the job done to pay for those who are not to continue their efforts.

If anything is to be funded from the public trough, let it be the fundamental research, and not the production level distribution. We are not in crisis.

As for AGW, when I obtained my Bachelor of Science in Geology, the talk was of the coming Ice Age. Now, we're supposedly going to boil in relentlessly rising oceans. Truth is, the climate changes, CO2 is a trailing indicator, not a forcing indicator, (like the fizz coming out of a beverage when it warms, the oceans give up CO2 as well, as they warm. Simple solution chemistry.)

There are people who have already become ridiculously rich off of climate panic, and continue to do so.  Yet the globe has been warmer and colder, long before humans had the technology to make substantial impact on it, so I'm not buying that we humans are the cause. We are just along for the ride.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #73 on: November 19, 2018, 08:12:59 pm »
 
Whoa, hold the phone.  China doesn't outpace us in technology.

Not yet. If you're not worried about it then you're not paying attention.
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #74 on: November 19, 2018, 08:13:10 pm »
I don't think we should try to force inefficient technology. I want smart people to have all of the funds they need to test and improve the technology. Subsidizing solar so it can pump out inefficient technology is stupid.
Well, we agree on something. Fund basic research, as the National Science Foundation has in the past, and let the commercial development proceed without subsidy.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis