Tennessee alarm bell rings for GOP: Marsha Blackburn's lead wiped out in two shock Senate polls

[mystery-ak]

Tennessee alarm bell rings for GOP: Marsha Blackburn's lead wiped out in two shock Senate polls
by Daniel Chaitin
 | November 02, 2018 09:30 PM



Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, are tied in two new polls out for the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee days before the midterm elections.

One of the polls, from East Tennessee State University, shows the candidates at 44 percent apiece among likely voters, according to the Tennessean. The second, from Nashville-based Targoz Strategic Marketing, found 48 percent of likely and early voters support each candidate. Early voting ended in the state on Thursday.

Republicans view Tennessee as a "firewall" state protecting them from the loss of the chamber. With the current balance of power 51 to 49 and Democrats looking highly likely to lose North Dakota, the GOP could afford to lose Arizona and Nevada while failing to pick up Florida, Missouri or Indiana and still survive with 50 seats and Vice President Mike Pence's casting vote. That calculation would be swept away by losing Tennessee.

The new polling is a break from the recent slate of surveys showing Blackburn with an advantage. The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, which does not include these two new surveys, shows Blackburn up 6.8 percentage points.

The Tennessean notes that the ETSU poll shows Bredesen has an advantage with independent voters, 46 percent to Blackburn's 35 percent, as well as with women, 51 percent to 38 percent. Blackburn, meanwhile, leads with men 57 percent to Bredesen's 35 percent.

President Trump is scheduled to give Blackburn a late boost when he participates in a rally at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga on Sunday.

Blackburn and Bredesen are vying to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.

The ETSU survey was conducted by phone from Oct. 22-29 with 610 likely voters. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/marsha-blackburns-lead-erased-in-tennessee-senate-polls-released-days-before-midterm-elections

[Victoria33]

I read that and this contest is so close, it will be decided by how many show up at the polls.  If voting day is bad weather/stormy, that could decide who wins - who will go out in the weather no matter how bad it is.  Someone should check the weather for that day.  Men are more likely to go out in it than women.  It the weather is decent, it is a toss up for that day.  This race is interesting.  Will check it on voting day to see who wins.

[Chosen Daughter]

I read that and this contest is so close, it will be decided by how many show up at the polls.  If voting day is bad weather/stormy, that could decide who wins - who will go out in the weather no matter how bad it is.  Someone should check the weather for that day.  Men are more likely to go out in it than women.  It the weather is decent, it is a toss up for that day.  This race is interesting.  Will check it on voting day to see who wins.

I'd be going out hell or high water.  I have no idea what the state looks like politically but if you are in danger of liberalism weather isn't going to stop a person.

[jmyrlefuller]

I swear to God, if Taylor Swift gets away with stealing an election...

[Formerly Once-Ler]

I read that and this contest is so close, it will be decided by how many show up at the polls.  If voting day is bad weather/stormy, that could decide who wins - who will go out in the weather no matter how bad it is. 

  Back in 2002 and 2004 I called myself a broken glass Republican.  I don't hear that much these days.

[Victoria33]

  Back in 2002 and 2004 I called myself a broken glass Republican.  I don't hear that much these days.

@Once-Ler

This newer generation won't get out in the rain as it might get water on their I phone.

[truth_seeker]

  Back in 2002 and 2004 I called myself a broken glass Republican.  I don't hear that much these days.

I have always been a broken glass Republican.

[skeeter]

  Back in 2002 and 2004 I called myself a broken glass Republican.  I don't hear that much these days.

I still am.

It all depends upon how repellant you find the alternative.

I find the rats totally unacceptable. To others I guess they're not that bad.

[Free Vulcan]

Blackburn was up double digits two weeks ago and now is tied? Pftt.

Sounds more like liberal psyops to stop the bleeding.

At any rate, polls are useless right now. People are tired of getting called and the sample their getting is 2nd rate at best.

[DB]

The only poll that matters is a few days away.

I'll wait.

[Smokin Joe]

Polls just set the stage for vote fraud. Sudden swings in numbers without incidents to make it happen likely are harbingers of busloads of people from elsewhere....

[libertybele]

Polls just set the stage for vote fraud. Sudden swings in numbers without incidents to make it happen likely are harbingers of busloads of people from elsewhere....

For one polls haven't been accurate.  Secondly, if this sudden swing in numbers is indeed fraud, unfortunately, it has to be proven.  I'm not so sure that the vote will be able to be challenged though unless its extremely close.

[Right_in_Virginia]

  Back in 2002 and 2004 I called myself a broken glass Republican.  I don't hear that much these days.

Considering the crowd you hang with, this is no surprise. 

[Right_in_Virginia]

All the libs have left is voter suppression.  Don't fall for the dem "surging" that's being reported on some races. 

Stay the course and vote.  We're almost there.

[TomSea]

Mark me down as another person skeptical of the polls.

[INVAR]

Polls just set the stage for vote fraud. Sudden swings in numbers without incidents to make it happen likely are harbingers of busloads of people from elsewhere....

Already underway:

GA Democratic Party caught trying to hack elections computers

The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office says they are investigating a failed attempt to hack the state’s voter registration system by the Democratic Party of Georgia, the office said in a news release.

"While we cannot comment on the specifics of an ongoing investigation, I can confirm that the Democratic Party of Georgia is under investigation for possible cyber crimes," said Secretary of State office Press Secretary Candice Broce. "We can also confirm that no personal data was breached and our system remains secure."

DEMOCRAT RESPONSE:

"This is yet another example of abuse of power by an unethical Secretary of State. To be very clear, Brian Kemp's scurrilous claims are 100 percent false, and this so-called investigation was unknown to the Democratic Party of Georgia until a campaign operative in Kemp's official office released a statement this morning. This political stunt from Kemp just days before the election is yet another example of why he cannot be trusted and should not be overseeing an election in which he is also a candidate for governor."

If memory serves, did not Obama's DHS make several attempts to do this same hack?  Wasn't it Kemp that make that attempt public?  And of course the media buried the story and nothing was done about it, by EITHER party.

[Cyber Liberty]

Blackburn was up double digits two weeks ago and now is tied? Pftt.

Sounds more like liberal psyops to stop the bleeding.

At any rate, polls are useless right now. People are tired of getting called and the sample their getting is 2nd rate at best.

I saw another article on TBR this morning, about a "silent red wave."  Over the years, Republicans have become more secretive about their votes, while Democrats love to broadcast their voting intentions far and wide.  IIRC, Rasmussen found that 68% of Democrats tell people how they will vote, while the number for Republicans is 40% or lower.

Republicans are refusing to answer polls in droves.  It's rendering polls worthless, a development I applaud.  I hate polls about elections.

[jpsb]

Republicans are refusing to answer polls in droves.  It's rendering polls worthless, a development I applaud.  I hate polls about elections.

That's me, but other more mischievous republicans lie to posters to corrupt the poll.

[Cyber Liberty]

That's me, but other more mischievous republicans lie to posters to corrupt the poll.

...like a rug, when I'm in a testy mood.

[Night Hides Not]

...like a rug, when I'm in a testy mood.

When aren’t you “testy”?

J/k
LOL

[Polly Ticks]

...like a rug, when I'm in a testy mood.

@Cyber Liberty
Did someone say testy mood?

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,273455.0.html

[Cyber Liberty]

@Cyber Liberty
Did someone say testy mood?

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,273455.0.html

[240B]

Democrats will win with 99% of the vote!

Funny stuff. Why the Democrats think that broadcasting their imminent and predetermined overwhelming Victory is helping them, I will never understand. Yea Ok, sure you will. 99% guaranteed. And yet all they do is lose, everywhere, except in their own little enclaves.

Oh well. That's just Democrats being Democrats. What can you do?

[Smokin Joe]

For one polls haven't been accurate.  Secondly, if this sudden swing in numbers is indeed fraud, unfortunately, it has to be proven.  I'm not so sure that the vote will be able to be challenged though unless its extremely close.

But that's the point. If the polls show candidate 'A' winning by 10% and they squeak by, it is less likely to be questioned than if the poll said they were going to trail in the ballot. A poll sets expectations for results.

[DB]

But that's the point. If the polls show candidate 'A' winning by 10% and they squeak by, it is less likely to be questioned than if the poll said they were going to trail in the ballot. A poll sets expectations for results.

It also lets them claim fraud, that the election was stolen somehow to make their base even angrier.