Political poll are rubbish! Let me explain. In order for these polls to have any meaning requires a probability sample. Without a probability sample no "margin of error" or any other statistical information can be done. These days the average political poll has a response rate of 0.9%. That's right....0.9%. Pew claims it's higher. It is not. These polls are self selecting samples due to the incredibly low response rates. In Wisconsin the Marquette Law School poll that is so widely acclaimed had to make over 90,000 phone call to attain 1400 responses on it's last poll before the midterm elections. This poll had a 1.4% response rate. Better than most but still rubbish. I analyzed the data.....rubbish. Nearly 50% of the responses came from just two areas while these same two areas comprise only 16% of registered voters. They claim they adjusted the data....they did it wrong. Political polls are in crisis mode.
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