Report Throws Water on ‘Blue Wave’

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The Washington Free Beacon
BY: Haris Alic
June 29, 2018 5:00 am

Discussion of an impending "blue wave" has proliferated throughout the political landscape since November 2017, aided in part by the media and a Democratic Party eager to claw its way back into power.

Yet very little evidence or research exists on what exactly constitutes a wave election or how they can be measured in the future. A new analysis by Ballotpedia attempts to break ground on the subject by examining data from 50 previous election cycles, ranging from 1918 to 2016, in order to appropriately determine how many seats Democrats would need to win in 2018 for their "blue wave" to not only crest but reach the shore.

Ballotpedia's analysis defines a "wave" as 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years, in which the president's party lost the most seats. Using this definition, Ballotpedia measured prior political performance to determine Democrats would need to win at least 48 House seats, 7 Senate seats, 7 gubernatorial seats, and 494 state legislative seats for 2018 to be counted as a wave election.

If that sounds like a large hurdle for any party to overcome, let alone one which has struggled with fundraising, messaging, and bridging ideological divides, that's because it is.

(more)
http://freebeacon.com/politics/report-throws-water-blue-wave/

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The wailing and gnashing of teeth if the GOP manages to hold onto the House would be awesome.  Because it will mean that a majority of voters actually like where the country has gone under Trump, and voting GOP wouldn't just be a vote against Hillary like it was in 2016.  It would further damage the left's perception that the tides of history must flow in their direction by right.

Also, it likely would radicalize them even further, making the political landscape even more favorable for the GOP in 2020.

[Free Vulcan]

All the Blue Wave nonsense is based off special elections of turnout of no more than 25%. It's easy to bum rush your rabid Dem party supporters to eke out a few percentage point win even in a GOP friendly district.

It's not so easy to do that in a mid-term general election, especially considering that a third of your registered are pro-Trump

[Bigun]

All the Blue Wave nonsense is based off special elections of turnout of no more than 25%. It's easy to bum rush your rabid Dem party supporters to eke out a few percentage point win even in a GOP friendly district.

It's not so easy to do that in a mid-term general election, especially considering that a third of your registered are pro-Trump

 

[cato potatoe]

Well, they don't need a wave election to take over the House.  The Senate would require something akin to 2006.  Republicans are defending 21 senate seats in 2020, Democrats only 12.  Republicans need to GAIN senate seats this year.

[bilo]

All the Blue Wave nonsense is based off special elections of turnout of no more than 25%. It's easy to bum rush your rabid Dem party supporters to eke out a few percentage point win even in a GOP friendly district.

It's not so easy to do that in a mid-term general election, especially considering that a third of your registered are pro-Trump

The Blue wave has diminished because Trump's success has overshadowed the failure of the House and Senate to get anything meaningful done, except for tax reform. Also, the Rats have helped to reduce their momentum by moving further and further to the left to the point now that they openly talk about supporting socialism.

All the excitement about the SCOTUS pick will quickly disappear if the liberal Pub senators and mccain break ranks. If this happens the gains in the Senate will not be as great as they should have been and when the Pubs have to defend a lot more seats in 2020 they may have a problem.

[Frank Cannon]

Well, they don't need a wave election to take over the House.  The Senate would require something akin to 2006.  Republicans are defending 21 senate seats in 2020, Democrats only 12.  Republicans need to GAIN senate seats this year.

I see at least three pick ups in the Senate. Now that there is a SC Justice on the table, it could be more.

[Jazzhead]

The wailing and gnashing of teeth if the GOP manages to hold onto the House would be awesome.  Because it will mean that a majority of voters actually like where the country has gone under Trump, and voting GOP wouldn't just be a vote against Hillary like it was in 2016.  It would further damage the left's perception that the tides of history must flow in their direction by right.

Also, it likely would radicalize them even further, making the political landscape even more favorable for the GOP in 2020.

It is simplistic to view an off-year election as a referendum on the President.  The Dems want to make it so, but that doesn't mean that folks won't vote as they usually do,  on the basis of their local candidates and their general personal situations (which are likely to be good this year given the strong economy and low unemployment numbers). 

The biggest issue for the GOP is addressing the enthusiasm gap, on the conventional assumption that Dem voters will be all fired up from outrage at Trump to get out and vote for anyone with a "D" beside their name.  Ironically,  the Dems' unprecedented incivility and the constant abuse from the media directed not just at Trump but his supporters as well could effectively close the enthusiasm act.  The Dems have made perfectly clear we're deplorable and racist and Islamophobic and just plain horrible.   So be it.  If we're the target,  we'll get off our asses and vote.   

[Cyber Liberty]

I see at least three pick ups in the Senate. Now that there is a SC Justice on the table, it could be more.

Flake so angered the GOP in AZ, it's likely that seat will flip Dem...

[Frank Cannon]

Flake so angered the GOP in AZ, it's likely that seat will flip Dem...

I guess that depends on the quality of the guy running to take his place.

[Cyber Liberty]

I guess that depends on the quality of the guy running to take his place.

Three people on the GOP side:  Sheriff Joe.  He's 84 and lost his last Sheriff election to a Dem because he was plagued with lawsuits.  Martha McSally, a decorated veteren (A10 pilot) but has taken many liberal positions since she was elected to Congress.  Kelli Ward, lost the Primary Election to McStain last time, and riled people up by declaring her desire for his seat.  She believes in Chemtrails, is known as Chemtrail Kelli.

They are running against the Bisexual Socialist Democrat who represents my district, Kyrsten Sinema.  She's unopposed in the Dem Primary.  Independents are allowed to vote in the Primary of their choice, and most Dems are registered as Independents.  She has that "Hot Librarian" look and is stacked like a brick house.

[cato potatoe]

What are the rules governing her replacement in the 9th district if she wins the Senate seat?  Can Ducey appoint a pub?

[Cyber Liberty]

What are the rules governing her replacement in the 9th district if she wins the Senate seat?  Can Ducey appoint a pub?

Sinema is not running for reelection in District 9.  Talia Fuentes and Greg Stanton are running in the Dem Primary to replace her.

If she were running and vacated the seat, a Special Election would be held to replace her.  Not likely, because AZ has "Resign to run," but it's never been tested for a Federal office.