Author Topic: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017  (Read 2278 times)

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Offline thackney

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U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« on: March 27, 2018, 06:50:09 pm »
U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35512
MARCH 27, 2018



U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached 1.94 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, up from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016. As LNG exports increased, shipments went to more destinations. U.S. LNG exports in 2017, all of which originated from Louisiana’s Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal, reached 25 countries.

More than half (53%) of U.S. LNG exports in 2017 were shipped to three countries: Mexico, South Korea, and China. Mexico received the largest amount of U.S. LNG exports, at 20% of the 2017 total. Growing natural gas demand in Mexico, particularly from the power generation sector, and delays in the construction of domestic pipelines connecting to U.S. export pipelines led Mexico to rely on LNG imports to supplement imports of natural gas by pipeline.

In Asia, the widening difference between the Henry Hub natural gas price—to which U.S. LNG contract prices are indexed—and crude oil—to which LNG prices are benchmarked in Asia—helped to drive increases in LNG imports from the United States. Exports to South Korea accounted for 18% of total U.S. LNG exports in 2017 and were part of long-term contracts between sellers Cheniere Energy and Shell and the Korean natural gas buyers—utilities KOGAS and KEPCO. Exports to China made up 15% of total U.S. LNG exports. These exports were sold mostly on a spot basis, with volumes in October, November, and December increasing as record-high LNG demand prompted China to seek additional LNG on the global spot market to supplement contracted volumes.

Almost 60% of U.S. LNG in 2017 was sold on a spot basis to more than 20 countries in Asia, North and South America, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caribbean. Although liquefaction capacity at Sabine Pass is fully contracted under long-term contracts to various buyers, flexibility in those contracts’ destination clauses allows U.S. LNG to be shipped to any market in the world.

After countries in Asia and North America (Mexico), countries in Europe collectively accounted for the third-largest share of U.S. LNG exports. LNG imports by several European countries increased in 2017, driven by increased demand primarily from the power generation sector. South American LNG imports declined in 2017. Demand for natural gas in that region is highly variable and is affected by the availability of competing lower-cost natural gas supply and hydro generation output.

The increase in LNG exports over the past two years is the result of the continuing expansion of U.S. LNG export capacity. Two LNG projects—Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Cove Point in Maryland—have come online since 2016, increasing U.S. LNG export capacity to 3.6 Bcf/d.

Four more projects are scheduled to come online in the next two years: Elba Island LNG in Georgia and Cameron LNG in Louisiana in 2018, then Freeport LNG and Corpus Christi LNG in Texas in 2019. Once completed, U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to reach 9.6 Bcf/d by the end of 2019. As export capacity continues to increase, the United States is projected to become the third-largest LNG exporter in the world by 2020, surpassing Malaysia and remaining behind only Australia and Qatar.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2018, 08:00:26 pm »
and it will be quadrupled again it appears by the end of next year at almost 10 bcfd.

Wow.
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Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2018, 12:00:11 am »
I wonder what this will do to natural gas prices. I noticed the it does not seem to have affected the Henry Hub prices all that much. A little higher than 2016, but till below $3/mmbtu

Offline thackney

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2018, 12:06:36 pm »
I wonder what this will do to natural gas prices. I noticed the it does not seem to have affected the Henry Hub prices all that much. A little higher than 2016, but till below $3/mmbtu

Due to the high world demand, I don't think it will really raise our domestic prices.  It give more incentive to drill in the US with us less likely to have a glut and price drop.  Consequently it will our supply strong.

Less risk to producers means more money willing to be invested in supply.  The cost of liquefaction and gasification separates our domestic price from rising to the higher world prices.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2018, 02:19:38 pm »
Methinks modest increases only.

From a technical perspective, we are absolutely awash with natural gas undrilled to date.

Most of what the unconventionals technology unleashed to date has been targeting the liquids-rich zones, which represent a very low percentage of all technically-accessible zones.

Natural gas is much, much better to produce in such low permeability formations due to its low viscosity compared to liquids.

The Marcellus, coupled with the Utica shales, is the largest natural gas resource to ever be produced in this country, and is not yet even close to its peak.  The Haynesville shales are likely the most prolific on a per well basis in this country and rig count is climbing.  I have noticed some companies targeting the matured section of the Eagleford, or that section outside the liquids-rich maturity window which has almost exclusively been targeted to date for the liquids.  The gas-generating area of the Eagleford is many times the size of the narrow liquids area.

There are vast areas of gas-prone areas yet to be targeted in this country.  And Canada has phenomenal amounts of unconventional gas resources. The best pure unconventional gas play I have technically seen yet exists in the Horn River formation in BC. Just the northeast portion of BC alone has up to 250 TCF of gas in place.  Truly staggering.

Gas prices remain low which does not provide incentive.  What does provide incentive is the ability to reduce risk of commercial success in a proven basin where one can make prolific gas wells above 20 mmcfpd.  Doesn't take many of these to greatly increase natural gas production in this country.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 01:55:29 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
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Offline MajorClay

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2018, 03:13:24 am »
Yes!

Offline MajorClay

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2018, 03:16:58 am »
Sure thought we would export more to Europe.
Want to wean them off Russian gas.

Offline thackney

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2018, 12:13:24 pm »
Sure thought we would export more to Europe.
Want to wean them off Russian gas.

It has started, but Europe doesn't have enough LNG import terminals, yet.  Many are in progress but not yet complete.  They typically take a couple years after the money is allocated and they are not cheap.

https://www.gie.eu/index.php/maps-data/lng-map
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 12:16:27 pm by thackney »
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2018, 01:08:01 pm »
Sure thought we would export more to Europe.
Want to wean them off Russian gas.
It is a concern for the EU.  Right now, they have little choice but to buy it from them.

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Offline thackney

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2018, 01:46:03 pm »
It is a concern for the EU.  Right now, they have little choice but to buy it from them.



They are buying from LNG sources.  They just don't have enough yet.  But this year capacity has hit the amount they are importing from Russia.  Your chart should start declining in a year or a few, depending on demand growth.

https://www.gie.eu/download/maps/2017/GIE_LNG_2018_A0_1189x841_FULL.pdf
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2018, 01:57:35 pm »
Methinks modest increases only.

From a technical perspective, we are absolutely awash with natural gas undrilled to date.

Most of what the unconventionals technology unleashed to date has been targeting the liquids-rich zones, which represent a very low percentage of all technically-accessible zones.

Natural gas is much, much better to produce in such low permeability formations due to its low viscosity compared to liquids.

The Marcellus, coupled with the Utica shales, is the largest natural gas resource to ever be produced in this country, and is not yet even close to its peak.  The Haynesville shales are likely the most prolific on a per well basis in this country and rig count is climbing.  I have noticed some companies targeting the matured section of the Eagleford, or that section outside the liquids-rich maturity window which has almost exclusively been targeted to date for the liquids.  The gas-generating area of the Eagleford is many times the size of the narrow liquids area.

There are vast areas of gas-prone areas yet to be targeted in this country.  And Canada has phenomenal amounts of unconventional gas resources. The best pure unconventional gas play I have technically seen yet exists in the Horn River formation in BC. Just the northeast portion of BC alone has up to 250 TCF of gas in place.  Truly staggering.

Gas prices remain low which does not provide incentive.  What does provide incentive is the ability to reduce risk of commercial success in a proven basin where one can make prolific gas wells above 20 mmcfpd.  Doesn't take many of these to greatly increase natural gas production in this country.
Only the Barnett is declining
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2018, 02:00:40 pm »
Appears only the Barnett and Fayetteville, the early gas shale plays, are declining
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Offline thackney

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2018, 02:24:24 pm »
Only the Barnett is declining

The Barnett isn't even tracked in the shale drilling productivity report.  I don't think it sees much new drilling.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2018, 06:40:29 pm »
The Barnett isn't even tracked in the shale drilling productivity report.  I don't think it sees much new drilling.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf
It was the grandfather of the other ones and is resting, satisfied in his accomplishments to generate a whole new way of finding and developing hydrocarbons.

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« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 06:41:02 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2018, 09:11:47 pm »
It was the grandfather of the other ones and is resting, satisfied in his accomplishments to generate a whole new way of finding and developing hydrocarbons.

I hope I can find the same peace

They were just getting started drilling there when we left the Granbury area in 1997. There were a lot of rigs there for the next several years.

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2018, 12:52:01 am »
They were just getting started drilling there when we left the Granbury area in 1997. There were a lot of rigs there for the next several years.
Yes, I attended a number of Unconventional Gas Conferences in Fort Worth during its heyday as THE shale play.  It laid the foundation for not only shales and horizontal drilling with stage fracs, but developing a field in urban areas.

Granbury is a nice town.  I take my grandkids there every year for its Christmas parade.  They live in Benbrook and Granbury's parade is more family-friendly than is Fort Worth's.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2018, 12:55:55 pm by IsailedawayfromFR »
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline Joe Wooten

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Re: U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2018, 02:46:08 am »
Yes, I attended a number of Unconventional Gas Conferences in Fort Worth during its heyday as THE shale play.  It laid the foundation for not only shales and horizontal drilling with stage fracs, but developing a field in urban areas.

Grandbury is a nice town.  I take my grandkids there every year for its Christmas parade.  They live in Benbrook and Grandbury's parade is more family-friendly than is Fort Worth's.

Yes it is, though I DO NOT like how it has grown since we left. It takes forever to get through the town on 377 to where our friends still live. The traffic is horrible. Even the Acton area, where we lived, is overcrowded. When I moved there in 1980 the town was less than 5000.