GOP angst over midterms grows

[mystery-ak]

GOP angst over midterms grows
By Scott Wong - 01/11/18 06:00 AM EST

For some Republicans, it’s starting to feel like 2006 — a wave election year that swept Democrats back into power in the House and Senate.

The retirement of two longtime California Republicans this week — just the latest in a string of House Republicans heading for the exits — has caused panic among some in the GOP who say it’s yet another sign that an anti-Trump, Democratic wave is forming.

“It’s a tough election cycle for Republicans; we know that going in,” said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), who is not running for reelection after representing a heavily Hispanic Miami district for nearly 30 years.

more
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/368436-gop-angst-over-midterms-grows

[Fishrrman]

Hey Pubbies?

Want to get rid of that angst?

Then... do what you were elected to do!

(that is all...)

[Concerned]

I'm afraid the angst in the House is probably justified.  Since 1962, the average loss of seats for the President's party is 40 seats when the President's approval rating is less than 50%.  The Dems only need to gain 24 seats to take the majority. 

[corbe]

[Suppressed]

I'm afraid the angst in the House is probably justified.  Since 1962, the average loss of seats for the President's party is 40 seats when the President's approval rating is less than 50%.  The Dems only need to gain 24 seats to take the majority.

And the Trumpers don't care.

[edpc]

Well, this situation is entirely self-inflicted.

[Emjay]

And the Trumpers don't care.

Where did you get your approval numbers?

Polls haven't been right in years, which phony one are you citing?

[INVAR]

Well, this situation is entirely self-inflicted.

Entirely.

And, they deserve to go the way of the Whigs.


I'll be doing my share to help that happen.

[Frank Cannon]

And the Trumpers don't care.

Why should anyone? They made years of promises only to be exposed for being total frauds when they got all the power they demanded. It is all rather pointless for any GOP'er to be in office if they are going to hide in their offices doing bong hits instead of getting shit done.

[anubias]

Why should anyone? They made years of promises only to be exposed for being total frauds when they got all the power they demanded. It is all rather pointless for any GOP'er to be in office if they are going to hide in their offices doing bong hits instead of getting shit done.

This ^^^^^

They cave to the Dems at every turn.  They need to be sent back home.

[Suppressed]

Why should anyone? They made years of promises only to be exposed for being total frauds when they got all the power they demanded. It is all rather pointless for any GOP'er to be in office if they are going to hide in their offices doing bong hits instead of getting shit done.

Are you one of the folks delusional enough to think a strong Democrat ajority wouldn't be ramming through a lot of horror?  Even seat-warming GOP provides interdiction.

[libertybele]

I'm afraid the angst in the House is probably justified.  Since 1962, the average loss of seats for the President's party is 40 seats when the President's approval rating is less than 50%.  The Dems only need to gain 24 seats to take the majority.

In the Senate;  there are 34 seats up in 2018, of which 26 are held by Democrats. They will only need to gain 2 seats to take control.

In the House, all seats are up for grab and so far 30 GOP are retiring.

[Concerned]

In the Senate;  there are 34 seats up in 2018, of which 26 are held by Democrats. They will only need to gain 2 seats to take control.

In the House, all seats are up for grab and so far 30 GOP are retiring.

And in the last 100 years, the President’s party lost an average of 23 seats in the House during the President’s first midterm.  Are this President’s approval ratings likely to indicate an above average or below average loss of seats?  An above average loss of seats would give the House majority to the Dems.

[edpc]

Are you one of the folks delusional enough to think a strong Democrat ajority wouldn't be ramming through a lot of horror?  Even seat-warming GOP provides interdiction.

I'm not, but I'd also prefer to be metaphorically shot through the heart by an enemy than slowly suffocated by a supposed ally.

[Frank Cannon]

And in the last 100 years, the President’s party lost an average of 23 seats in the House during the President’s first midterm.  Are this President’s approval ratings likely to indicate an above average or below average loss of seats?  An above average loss of seats would give the House majority to the Dems.

Who cares about the last 100 years? 100 years ago a lot of people didn't have bathrooms in their house. If you look at the last 20 years, that number dramatically changes. Country is far too divided now to have these wild swings left.

[Concerned]

Who cares about the last 100 years? 100 years ago a lot of people didn't have bathrooms in their house. If you look at the last 20 years, that number dramatically changes. Country is far too divided now to have these wild swings left.

Looking at the last 10-12 years, the Dems picked up 31 seats in 2006.  In the first mid-term after Obama’s Presidency in 2010, the Reps picked up 63.  The Reps picked up an additional 13 seats in 2014 and lost 6 in 2016.  It’ll be interesting to see the swing in 2018.   I don’t think a swing of 24 is out of the question.  Time will tell.

[edpc]

Looking at the last 10-12 years, the Dems picked up 31 seats in 2006.  In the first mid-term after Obama’s Presidency in 2010, the Reps picked up 63.  The Reps picked up an additional 13 seats in 2014.  It’ll be interesting to see the swing in 2018.   I don’t think a swing of 24 is out of the question.  Time will tell.

Not entirely impossible, but they’re not presently getting much in the way of donor support and issues traction.  The glow from Jones quickly waned.  The best things they have going are shithole and Oprah.

[Concerned]

Not entirely impossible, but they’re not presently getting much in the way of donor support and issues traction.  The glow from Jones quickly waned.  The best things they have going are shithole and Oprah.

We'll see.  I think the best thing they have going for them is an energized "Resistance".  African American turnout in Alabama last fall has been called "massive" and "extraordinary".  Turnout in the latest election in Virginia was a 20 year high for a gubernatorial race.  I expect Democratic turnout for the midterms to be extremely high, and the more inflammatory, divisive, and base-centric things that come from the President, the more energized I expect the Democrats to be. 

[Fishrrman]

With the continuing "division of the states" into red and blue orbs, many Congressional districts are similarly polarized (redistricting has a lot to do with this).

I predict the "blue zones" will continue to be blue, while the "red zones" continue to remain red.

That leaves the "purple fringe".
Too early to tell just yet.
Gonna have to wait and see.

[dfwgator]

Tends to happen when you're a party about nothing.

[libertybele]

Hey Pubbies?

Want to get rid of that angst?

Then... do what you were elected to do!

(that is all...)

Borderwall, NO amnesty, repeal of Bammycare.  So far they are 0 for 3.  Not exactly a stellar performance going into the mid-terms.  Not surprising really.  Ryan hasn't changed, nor has the Turtle.  In fact, Ryan's grand and glorious speech after Trump's election has turned out to be absolutely pure b.s. just as I thought it was when I sat and watched him ramble.  His speech (note especially his comments on Bammycare and a unified Republican party):

http://time.com/4564832/paul-ryan-speech-donald-trump-election/

[Cripplecreek]

The volume of desperate screeching fundraising emails seems to indicate concern.

I'm done voting till Trumpism is dead and buried in a shallow woodland grave.

[libertybele]

The volume of desperate screeching fundraising emails seems to indicate concern.

I'm done voting till Trumpism is dead and buried in a shallow woodland grave.

What exactly is your definition of Trumpism and how do you feel his presidency is less to the right than 'W's or Bush Sr.'s?  Secondly, IMHO the mid terms aren't a reflection of Trump, but a reflection of those in Congress. They are or at least should be held responsible for their actions or lack of action during the mid terms.  If you don't like the actions are the lack thereof of the GOPe, they are the ones that need to be held responsible, not Trump during the mid terms.  His evaluation comes in 2020.

[Night Hides Not]

What exactly is your definition of Trumpism and how do you feel his presidency is less to the right than 'W's or Bush Sr.'s?  Secondly, IMHO the mid terms aren't a reflection of Trump, but a reflection of those in Congress. They are or at least should be held responsible for their actions or lack of action during the mid terms.  If you don't like the actions are the lack thereof of the GOPe, they are the ones that need to be held responsible, not Trump during the mid terms.  His evaluation comes in 2020.

I completely disagree with your statement “the midterms aren’t a reflection of Trump.” Midterms are a referendum on a sitting President. All you need to do is look back at 2010 & 2016, both were referendums on Obama.

[jpsb]

If and it is a big IF, but if the GOP can convincingly show that the Rats used the
DOJ, CIA, NSA and FBI to throw the election to Hillary then the Rats will lose massively.
More and more it is looks like that is exactly what happened but high profile Obama
admin folks need to be put on trail to drive home to the voters just how corrupt the
Rats are. Do that GOP and you will be fine in 2018. Don't do that and 2018 will be a very
bad election for you.