Tax-cut plan will more than pay for itself, add $300 billion in revenue: Treasury report

[mystery-ak]

 By Dave Boyer - The Washington Times - Updated: 1:48 p.m. on Monday, December 11, 2017

The Treasury Department said Monday that the Senate-approved tax reform plan would pay for itself and more, actually boosting revenue by $300 billion over 10 years.

The one-page analysis by Treasury counters a congressional forecast that the tax cuts would add about $1 trillion in deficits over the next decade.

Treasury said the legislation, which cuts corporate and individual taxes, would result in $1.8 trillion in additional tax revenue over a decade by spurring stronger economic growth. Subtracting tax cuts of $1.5 trillion from the measure under current law, the administration said, adds up to a gain.

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https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/dec/11/treasury-report-tax-cut-plan-add-300b-revenue/

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Treasury’s analysis forecasts annual economic growth of at least 2.9 percent, higher than the 2.2 percent estimates used by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Well, that's not ambitious or anything.

[Mesaclone]

Treasury’s analysis forecasts annual economic growth of at least 2.9 percent, higher than the 2.2 percent estimates used by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Well, that's not ambitious or anything.

No, it really isn't ambitious...your sarcasm aside...given that we are already exceeding that rate thanks to optimism over our new President's business acumen. We may, in fact, push our way up to 4% with the stimulus this new cut will provide...so it seems the Treasury analysis is pessimistic if anything.

[Cyber Liberty]

How can this be?  I've been assured by "deficit hawks" this bill will blow a hole in the deficit, and that it's a good thing Susan Collins wants to kill it because it might cut spending.

Taxes are not high enough, or so I've been told.

[Bigun]

Treasury’s analysis forecasts annual economic growth of at least 2.9 percent, higher than the 2.2 percent estimates used by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

Well, that's not ambitious or anything.

It's actual analysis instead of the crap OMB does!

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

It's actual analysis instead of the crap OMB does!

It's a 10 year economic forecast.

[Cyber Liberty]

It's a 10 year economic forecast.

A realistic one, in view of how this country's economy has performed in the past.  Those were typical numbers until the Democrats took the House, and Bush gave up being President.

[Concerned]

How can this be?  I've been assured by "deficit hawks" this bill will blow a hole in the deficit, and that it's a good thing Susan Collins wants to kill it because it might cut spending.

Taxes are not high enough, or so I've been told.

WOW!  I don’t know who these “deficit hawks” are who are providing you this “assurance”, but personally, I think anyone who truly “assured” you that “this bill will blow a hole in the deficit” probably doesn’t have a basic understanding of the dynamics of economics and the various variables that can affect the economy.  I think this is particularly true when you’re looking at a long-term horizon.  Although I personally think this tax reform bill is likely to increase the debt, I just don’t think anyone can “assure” us it will increase the debt or decrease the debt for that matter.  There’s just no way to tell with “assurance” IMO.

Also not sure who is telling you taxes aren't high enough, but I think we clearly over-tax, over-spend, and over-borrow (as I think most folks around here at TBR think also).

[Cyber Liberty]

WOW!  I don’t know who these “deficit hawks” are who are providing you this “assurance”, but personally, I think anyone who truly “assured” you that “this bill will blow a hole in the deficit” probably doesn’t have a basic understanding of the dynamics of economics and the various variables that can affect the economy.  I think this is particularly true when you’re looking at a long-term horizon.  Although I personally think this tax reform bill is likely to increase the debt, I just don’t think anyone can “assure” us it will increase the debt or decrease the debt for that matter.  There’s just no way to tell with “assurance” IMO.

Also not sure who is telling you taxes aren't high enough, but I think we clearly over-tax, over-spend, and over-borrow (as I think most folks around here at TBR think also).

I agree with what you wrote there, and I obviously misread what I was thinking about upthread.  Sorry.  There was a poster who said we're not up far enough on the Laffer curve for tax cuts to increase revenue, but it wasn't you.

[Night Hides Not]

It's a 10 year economic forecast.

According to the article, the "analysis" was contained on ONE page. 

[Night Hides Not]

It's actual analysis instead of the crap OMB does!

"Actual analysis" of the plan discussed on one page.

Yet you refer to OMB's work as crap.

 

[Night Hides Not]

WOW!  I don’t know who these “deficit hawks” are who are providing you this “assurance”, but personally, I think anyone who truly “assured” you that “this bill will blow a hole in the deficit” probably doesn’t have a basic understanding of the dynamics of economics and the various variables that can affect the economy.  I think this is particularly true when you’re looking at a long-term horizon.  Although I personally think this tax reform bill is likely to increase the debt, I just don’t think anyone can “assure” us it will increase the debt or decrease the debt for that matter.  There’s just no way to tell with “assurance” IMO.

Also not sure who is telling you taxes aren't high enough, but I think we clearly over-tax, over-spend, and over-borrow (as I think most folks around here at TBR think also).

I won't be much help here. All I remember from macroeconomics in college was the professor saying "there are no free lunches." The man knew his stuff, Dr. Erwin Graue. He taught for years at Univ of Idaho before moving to Spokane, and Gonzaga Univ. When I met him (he was my faculty advisor for two years), he was 77, and sharp as a tack.

"Macro" was brutal...I was one of five students in the class...there was nowhere to hide, and he let you have it when you gave him a wrong answer.

[Cyber Liberty]

"Actual analysis" of the plan discussed on one page.

Yet you refer to OMB's work as crap.

 

Longer is better.  That's why Obamacare was such a smashing success.  You don't get longerer or betterer than that.

[Concerned]

I agree with what you wrote there, and I obviously misread what I was thinking about upthread.  Sorry.  There was a poster who said we're not up far enough on the Laffer curve for tax cuts to increase revenue, but it wasn't you.

 

[Cyber Liberty]

 

(Thank God...a man with a Piper)

[Bigun]

It's a 10 year economic forecast.

Yes it is and based on real world analysis instead of the static BS the government historically resorts to.

[Bigun]

WOW!  I don’t know who these “deficit hawks” are who are providing you this “assurance”, but personally, I think anyone who truly “assured” you that “this bill will blow a hole in the deficit” probably doesn’t have a basic understanding of the dynamics of economics and the various variables that can affect the economy.  I think this is particularly true when you’re looking at a long-term horizon.  Although I personally think this tax reform bill is likely to increase the debt, I just don’t think anyone can “assure” us it will increase the debt or decrease the debt for that matter.  There’s just no way to tell with “assurance” IMO.

Also not sure who is telling you taxes aren't high enough, but I think we clearly over-tax, over-spend, and over-borrow (as I think most folks around here at TBR think also).

I respectfully disagree.  People actually will behave differently in a lower tax environment than the do in the higher tax one and cutting the corporate income tax rate will have a great stimulative effect on the entire economy IMHO. 

If they would cut it to zero, and thus create an environment where one could start or expand a business without first having to consider the tax implications, there would be no stopping the growth here.

[Bigun]

"Actual analysis" of the plan discussed on one page.

Yet you refer to OMB's work as crap.

 

Only because that is EXACTLY what it is!  CRAP!

[Concerned]

I respectfully disagree.  People actually will behave differently in a lower tax environment than the do in the higher tax one and cutting the corporate income tax rate will have a great stimulative effect on the entire economy IMHO. 

If they would cut it to zero, and thus create an environment where one could start or expand a business without first having to consider the tax implications, there would be no stopping the growth here.

If the tax decrease occurred in a vacuum, I'd be much more inclined to agree with you, but I think there are just too many external variables to be "assured" about what absolutely "will" happen (e.g., suppose we have another major terrorist attack where thousands are killed, or hyperinflation, or we make a deal with our creditors that essentially means we default on our debt as Trump has teased, or North Korea (or the US) does something stupid (intentionally or unintentionally) or Trump is impeached or he just keeps tweeting (J/K)).  There are all kinds of things that might occur that could impact the economy (positively or negatively, of course).  I think that's why some tax cuts have resulted in growth and some have not:  just too many variables to be "assured".  If you think growth is "assured", we just agree to disagree.  Have a good night! 

[Bigun]

If the tax decrease occurred in a vacuum, I'd be much more inclined to agree with you, but I think there are just too many external variables to be "assured" about what absolutely "will" happen (e.g., suppose we have another major terrorist attack where thousands are killed, or hyperinflation, or we make a deal with our creditors that essentially means we default on our debt as Trump has teased, or North Korea (or the US) does something stupid (intentionally or unintentionally) or Trump is impeached or he just keeps tweeting (J/K)).  There are all kinds of things that might occur that could impact the economy (positively or negatively, of course).  I think that's why some tax cuts have resulted in growth and some have not:  just too many variables to be "assured".  If you think growth is "assured", we just agree to disagree.  Have a good night!

There is always the anything can happen factor that could blow up any analysis but the fact is that the economy will do much better under the lower tax scheme than it would under the higher in all cases I think.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

If the tax decrease occurred in a vacuum, I'd be much more inclined to agree with you, but I think there are just too many external variables to be "assured" about what absolutely "will" happen (e.g., suppose we have another major terrorist attack where thousands are killed, or hyperinflation, or we make a deal with our creditors that essentially means we default on our debt as Trump has teased, or North Korea (or the US) does something stupid (intentionally or unintentionally) or Trump is impeached or he just keeps tweeting (J/K)).  There are all kinds of things that might occur that could impact the economy (positively or negatively, of course).  I think that's why some tax cuts have resulted in growth and some have not:  just too many variables to be "assured".  If you think growth is "assured", we just agree to disagree.  Have a good night!

Thank you.  Saved me a lot of typing.

A 10 year economic forecast is, IMO, a joke so lame it's not even worthy of SNL.  While I tend to disagree with this forecast due to the vast amount of economic landmines in place today, if I were to present my own forecast I would label it as much of a joke as any other.

[Fantom]

Thank you.  Saved me a lot of typing.

A 10 year economic forecast is, IMO, a joke so lame it's not even worthy of SNL.  While I tend to disagree with this forecast due to the vast amount of economic landmines in place today, if I were to present my own forecast I would label it as much of a joke as any other.

Shirley...  you joke.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Shirley...  you joke.

 Like a midget at a urinal... I was gonna have to stay on my toes.

[Hoodat]

Tax-cut plan will more than pay for itself

There is nothing to pay for.  A tax cut simply means allowing people to keep their own money.

[Fantom]

Like a midget at a urinal... I was gonna have to stay on my toes.

LOL,