North Korea Crisis Live Thread - Latest NK Updates

[edpc]

The usual suspects I imagine...and hope.

That's the wild card that scares me, that some jihadi nutburger or other radical idealist is enabling these guys.

Which swerves into another issue. I hope our intelligence is good enough that we have their true capabilities nailed down. What we know doesn't bother me so much, it's what we don't know about that they may have, that is possibly due to the enablers giving it to them.

It is going to be a cosmic freaking joke if we end up in a hot war over this. In the end, their possession of nukes will be due to mistakes we made - namely electing Clinton twice.   We had an idea how incompetent this man was, but we're just starting to realize the catastrophic damage he's done to national security between the Chinese Loral deal, Agreed Framework, and Operation Merlin.

[Smokin Joe]

It is going to be a cosmic freaking joke if we end up in a hot war over this. In the end, their possession of nukes will be due to mistakes we made - namely electing Clinton twice.

In the end, the mistake was not to just let MacArthur and Le May bomb the sh*t out of the Communists on the other side of the Yalu and leave a hot zone that would be left alone for a while. There would have one Korea, not two and we wouldn't be where we are.

[edpc]

In the end, the mistake was not to just let MacArthur and Le May bomb the sh*t out of the Communists on the other side of the Yalu and leave a hot zone that would be left alone for a while. There would have one Korea, not two and we wouldn't be where we are.

Yes, but MacArthur lost credit credibility when he met Truman on Oct 15, 1950 at Wake Island and assured him the Chinese would not intervene.  Ten days later, they were pushing us South.

[corbe]

   It goes back further to when they kicked out the Buddhist in 1392 and adopted Confucian theology.  Japan stopped their little experiment in becoming something other than the hermit kingdom in 1910.

[Smokin Joe]

Yes, but MacArthur lost credit credibility when he met Truman on Oct 15, 1950 at Wake Island and assured him the Chinese would not intervene.  Ten days later, they were pushing us South.

True enough. Had the US helped Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists defeat Mao, the problem would not have been the same, either. At the very least, materiel support might have let Chiang keep the Communists busy elsewhere while the North Koreans were defeated. It was allegedly fear of an invasion of China (that had not been done) that led to the Chinese buildup in the first place, and perhaps motivated the attack. Failure to clean up 'little' messes has made for bigger ones later. (Not saying Chiang was a saint, either).

[kevindavis007]

Yes, but MacArthur lost credit credibility when he met Truman on Oct 15, 1950 at Wake Island and assured him the Chinese would not intervene.  Ten days later, they were pushing us South.

From what I understand, other nations warned us that China was going to help NK. I think had we stopped at the 38th, China would not have intervened in the war and NK would have been gone sooner.

[edpc]

It was really too bad, because the Inchon landing was one of the ballsiest operations in warfare.   The world had only been five years removed from the second world war and did not have the stomach to do what was necessary - taking on the Chicoms and Soviets.

[TomSea]

Reuters:

North Korea seen moving ICBM-grade rocket towards (NK's) west coast - media

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has been observed moving what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) towards its west coast, South Korea’s Asia Business Daily reported on Tuesday, citing an unidentified intelligence source.

The rocket started moving on Monday, a day after North Korea’s sixth nuclear test, and was spotted moving at night to avoid surveillance, the report said. North Korea has launch facilities for its missile programme on its west coast.

Continued: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-icbm/north-korea-seen-moving-icbm-grade-rocket-towards-west-coast-media-idUKKCN1BG07N?il=0

[edpc]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the reason why they're having problems with launch failures and in flight break ups is because they are damaging the missiles in transit to the launch sites.

[Wingnut]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the reason why they're having problems with launch failures and in flight break ups is because they are damaging the missiles in transit to the launch sites.

Well there is that.   Or the real reason. 

[edpc]

Well there is that.   Or the real reason.

Which would be what?

None of the long range NK missiles are solid fueled.  Liquid fueled missiles can't be toted around full.  It's too heavy and the fuel is caustic.  Carting a large, multi-stage ICBM around makes them prone to damage, as we and the Soviets found out long ago.

History suggests that building a true liquid-fueled ICBM that can be transported on a truck presents huge, if not insurmountable problems, to designers.

"The US and the Soviets tried very hard and never managed to reach a level of miniaturization and ruggedness that would support a road-mobile ICBM," said Kiessling, referring to the minaturization of nuclear warheads needed to fit them onto missiles.

ICBMs that use liquid fuel, as North Korea's do, are "very likely to crumple or damage the tankage" while being carted around on a bumpy truck.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-koreas-icbm-tests-may-212238812.html

[TomSea]

A game of nuclear chicken, a lot of good points:

Why is North Korea ‘begging for war’?

By Emma Richards | 5th September 2017   | @EmmaRichards85

1. Regime (and self) preservation

Probably the most common explanation. Kim has spent his first years in power consolidating his position by eliminating potential rivals – often in colourful ways, such as with the use of anti-aircraft gun.

...

2. The regime is fundamentally weak and this is all bravado

Despite the bombastic rhetoric and fierce patriotism abounds in North Korea – both from its leaders and the media – the regime has essentially lost the battle for the Korean peninsula. When compared with bitter rival Seoul, which controls twice the population of North Korea and an economy 30 times larger, it is easy to understand why Pyongyang fears “absorption” by the South.

3. Reunification of Korea

This has been a dream of the Kim regime since the signing of an armistice in 1953. If Kim can convince US to withdraw some of its 28,000 troops from the South, as former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon suggested could happen, analysts fear Kim would use his nuclear arsenal and the ability to strike the US as a shield to take back the South with force.

Read more at https://asiancorrespondent.com/2017/09/north-korea-begging-war/#wSP551c95W0cAGMZ.99

[driftdiver]

Some very good points

[kevindavis007]

A game of nuclear chicken, a lot of good points:

Very good points, however I think #2 is the main reason.

[TomSea]

KIM'S NUCLEAR FAMILYHow dodgy Kim Jong-un used the black market to swerve UN sanctions and build a massive nuclear arsenal which has pushed the world to the brink of war

The rogue state's 'backdoor deal' trade deals are a slap in the face to those looking to topple the despot
By Jon Lockett
5th September 2017, 3:57 pm
Updated: 5th September 2017, 3:57 pm

NORTH Korea's missile arsenal has rapidly progressed from makeshift rockets based on Second World War designs to launching ICBMs it brags can hit "anywhere in the world."

Since Kim Jong-un came to power, the rogue state's military has spent BILLIONS focusing it's efforts on producing the huge nuclear stockpile which is now spreading fear throughout the world.



Continued: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4385623/how-dodgy-kim-jong-un-used-the-black-market-to-swerve-un-sanctions-and-build-a-massive-nuclear-arsenal-which-has-pushed-the-world-to-the-brink-of-war/

I've heard people talk about Pakistan in this whole thing, they may well have contributed something per the graphic above, some science and technology.

[driftdiver]

Very good points, however I think #2 is the main reason.

I think it's D, all the above.

[edpc]

Very good points, however I think #2 is the main reason.

Maybe a 2.25.  Kim has attempted to mold himself as his grandfather with similar goals.  This time, however, he doesn't have a massive modern armed forces with a dependable supply line from Russia.  The appearance of the MiG-15, flown by Soviet pilots also helped keep our B-29s and close air support aircraft off them for awhile.

[kevindavis007]

Maybe a 2.25.  Kim has attempted to mold himself as his grandfather with similar goals.  This time, however, he doesn't have a massive modern armed forces with a dependable supply line from Russia.  The appearance of the MiG-15, flown by Soviet pilots also helped keep our B-29s and close air support aircraft off them for awhile.

Correct. The main reason was NK is still around cause of China and Russia (Let's get real Russia was really in charge of USSR).  If NK fires the first shot, I can't see Russia and China supporting NK. Hopefully.

[edpc]

Correct. The main reason was NK is still around cause of China and Russia (Let's get real Russia was really in charge of USSR).  If NK fires the first show, I can't see Russia and China supporting NK. Hopefully.

I can see Russia staying on the sidelines, but I don't trust the Chinese in any circumstances.  If things got really hot and China intervened, I could see Russia taking advantage and making moves elsewhere.  They may expand their push into Ukraine.  I'm not sure they'd attempt anything in the Baltics, but it's not out of the question.

[kevindavis007]

I can see Russia staying on the sidelines, but I don't trust the Chinese in any circumstances.  If things got really hot and China intervened, I could see Russia taking advantage and making moves elsewhere.  They may expand their push into Ukraine.  I'm not sure they'd attempt anything in the Baltics, but it's not out of the question.

I can't trust those two countries with a ten foot pole.

[edpc]

I can't trust those two countries with a ten foot pole.

 Don't worry, they use the metric system, anyway.

[Wingnut]

Don't worry, they use the metric system, anyway.

 

[Suppressed]

I just don't understand why he doesn't give up his nuclear ambitions.  Gaddafi trusted us and did so, and look at how well it worked out for him!

[TomSea]

UN Chief: N. Korea Nuclear Threat is World's Most Serious

WHITE HOUSE —

North Korea's nuclear weapons program is the most serious threat the world currently faces, the U.N. secretary-general said Tuesday, warning that "confrontational rhetoric may lead to unintended consequences."

At U.N. headquarters, Antonio Guterres said that "the solution must be political. The potential consequences of military action are too horrific."

https://www.voanews.com/a/united-nations-chief-north-korea-nuclear-threat-world-most-serious/4016286.html

[DB]

Meanwhile Iran is going down the same road. It is only a matter of time before they do their first test. I think it will be a lot sooner than the "experts" claim.