Author Topic: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico  (Read 42209 times)

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Offline Suppressed

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #300 on: September 07, 2017, 02:58:01 am »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

Prime Minister Browne of Antigua and Barbuda reports during press conference that more than 90% of structures on the island of Barbuda were destroyed. Over a shaky radio line Browne repeated the phrase “totally demolished” over and over again.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #301 on: September 07, 2017, 03:00:12 am »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-islands-category-5-storm

Prime Minister Browne of Antigua and Barbuda reports during press conference that more than 90% of structures on the island of Barbuda were destroyed. Over a shaky radio line Browne repeated the phrase “totally demolished” over and over again.
Almost sounds like the Prime Minister is in shock. Prayers up for all involved.
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Offline Suppressed

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #302 on: September 07, 2017, 03:06:53 am »
You can tell Antigua and Barbuda aren't Virgin Islands because they got really
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #303 on: September 07, 2017, 03:08:23 am »
@libertybele Is it possible to get a hotel room and find a nearby vet with boarding facilities?

Yes, I had thought about that.  I went and got of shots and rabies certificate today from the vet just in case we need to board the dog.  But I hadn't thought about that till late last night.  :shrug:
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #304 on: September 07, 2017, 03:14:40 am »
I'm still not sure as to why they have this thing hitting the east coast, when the reports keep saying it is heading westerly -  not good at all. 

From NHC --Irma continues on a west-northwestward heading at around 14 kt.  A
ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic should maintain
this course for the next 48 to 72 hours.  Later in the forecast
period a shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United
States is likely to turn the hurricane northwestward to
north-northwestward.  There has been a slight eastward shift in
some of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift
back to the west it is prudent to make little change to the
official forecast at this time. 
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Suppressed

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #305 on: September 07, 2017, 03:26:33 am »
I'm still not sure as to why they have this thing hitting the east coast, when the reports keep saying it is heading westerly -  not good at all. 

It's currently headed westerly, but all of the models except one oddball outlier have it making the typical right-hand turn and going up the east coast of Florida as the most likely path.
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“In the outside world, I'm a simple geologist. But in here .... I am Falcor, Defender of the Alliance” --Randy Marsh

“The most effectual means of being secure against pain is to retire within ourselves, and to suffice for our own happiness.” -- Thomas Jefferson

“He's so dumb he thinks a Mexican border pays rent.” --Foghorn Leghorn

Offline Elderberry

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #306 on: September 07, 2017, 11:36:30 am »

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #307 on: September 07, 2017, 11:49:27 am »
If this is supposed to be a hurricane with historical, record-breaking wind speeds, etc., why does the consensus have the Western front being strong enough to turn this Beast Northward?

My bet is that it's going to make it past Florida's tip and affect the Gulf Coast.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #308 on: September 07, 2017, 11:57:26 am »
If this is supposed to be a hurricane with historical, record-breaking wind speeds, etc., why does the consensus have the Western front being strong enough to turn this Beast Northward?

My bet is that it's going to make it past Florida's tip and affect the Gulf Coast.

Storm strength is not related to storm steering currents and other weather fronts.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #309 on: September 07, 2017, 12:27:32 pm »
If this is supposed to be a hurricane with historical, record-breaking wind speeds, etc., why does the consensus have the Western front being strong enough to turn this Beast Northward?

My bet is that it's going to make it past Florida's tip and affect the Gulf Coast.

Some good charts/maps and explanations at:

Science > Hurricane Science > Hurricane Movement
http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricanemovement/

...In addition to the steering flow by the environmental wind, a hurricane drifts northwestward (in the Northern Hemisphere) due to a process called beta drift, which arises because the strength of the Coriolis force increases with latitude for a given wind speed. The details of beta drift are beyond the scope of the discussion here, but the effect is summarized in the following graphic. Since beta drift involves a hurricane’s ability to modify the environmental wind field, the impact of beta drift on the hurricane’s track changes if the hurricane’s size changes....
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #310 on: September 07, 2017, 12:28:29 pm »
My best friend just called me. She, and her husband and my godson are packing their car, making bug out bags and leaving after lunch. She said they will be driving about 500 miles to get away from Irma.

They have a SUV that has some kind of DVD player installed so the boy will be fine. She hopes their house will be there when they come home. They just moved in it the middle of July.
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Offline Applewood

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #311 on: September 07, 2017, 12:31:58 pm »
My best friend just called me. She, and her husband and my godson are packing their car, making bug out bags and leaving after lunch. She said they will be driving about 500 miles to get away from Irma.

They have a SUV that has some kind of DVD player installed so the boy will be fine. She hopes their house will be there when they come home. They just moved in it the middle of July.

Prayers for your best friend and family and for anyone in the path of this monster.  Important thing is that your friend and family are getting out.  A house and any other possessions can be replaced, but you can't replace a life.

Offline Gefn

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #312 on: September 07, 2017, 12:35:32 pm »
Prayers for your best friend and family and for anyone in the path of this monster.  Important thing is that your friend and family are getting out.  A house and any other possessions can be replaced, but you can't replace a life.

Exactly. And I love my godson so much. He's the closest thing to a child I have, I'm honored he's in my life.
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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #313 on: September 07, 2017, 12:39:00 pm »
These Cape Verde storms normally weaken as they encounter shear at the big right turn.  So, there's hope for that.  And the models usually trend farther and farther east as landfall approaches.  Irma might avoid Florida, beeline to NC as a cat 1 or 2, and make a slight left turn around the upper low after landfall.

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #314 on: September 07, 2017, 12:54:56 pm »


Some good news ... based on this map we can expect DC to be closed next week.   ^-^ 

Offline libertybele

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #315 on: September 07, 2017, 01:07:52 pm »
What is bothersome is the actual reports coming out of the NHC vs.  the graphics of the cones and wind speeds they are posting.  The forecasters are not in agreement. During Charley they were ALL wrong. Some still say the west coast of FL will get the direct hit, others say the east.  Then they sum it up by saying to consider the margin of error of 225 miles on day 5.  Seriously??  Florida is only 160 miles wide at its broadest point.  So in other words they don't really have a clue.

..."The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula.  The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula.  The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.  The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h.   Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 01:08:26 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline thackney

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #316 on: September 07, 2017, 01:13:36 pm »
Then they sum it up by saying to consider the margin of error of 225 miles on day 5.

Margin of error for day 4 & 5 is nearly always 175~225 miles for any hurricane.  This isn't an precisely controlled environment.  This isn't different with this storm. 
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #317 on: September 07, 2017, 01:19:10 pm »
Quote
3 hurricanes are spinning simultaneously through the Atlantic
NY Post, Sep 7, 2017


This image obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Irma (center), Hurricane Jose (right) and Hurricane Katia (left) off the coast of Mexico. NOAA


More:  http://nypost.com/2017/09/07/3-hurricanes-are-spinning-simultaneously-through-the-atlantic/

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #318 on: September 07, 2017, 01:37:12 pm »
If this is supposed to be a hurricane with historical, record-breaking wind speeds, etc., why does the consensus have the Western front being strong enough to turn this Beast Northward?

My bet is that it's going to make it past Florida's tip and affect the Gulf Coast.

Rotational wind speed versus linear wind speed. 

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #319 on: September 07, 2017, 01:45:18 pm »
On the positive side, (and I don't want to get peoples hopes up, or complacent) is that I am seeing  from the models and forecasts that this thing is trending eastward.  That would be bad news NC wise, but a much less population would impacted.

Truth is, and always has been, that forecasts past 3 days are iffy at best under any circumstance.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 02:07:45 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #320 on: September 07, 2017, 01:46:04 pm »
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #322 on: September 07, 2017, 02:12:16 pm »
On the positive side, (and I don't want to get peoples hopes up, or complacent) is that I am seeing  from the models and forecasts that this thing is trending eastward.  That would be bad news NC wise, but a much less population would impacted.

Truth is, and always has been, that forecasts past 3 days are iffy at best under any circumstance.

I don't know who lives where on the site. TOS had a page that listed where members lived. I wish Irma would go out to sea where all she would affect are fish..
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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #323 on: September 07, 2017, 02:12:34 pm »
Richard Branson’s Virgin Islands’ home destroyed by Hurricane Irma
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/richard-bransons-virgin-islands-home-destroyed-by-hurricane-irma-2017-09-07?siteid=rss&rss=1

“Homes can be rebuilt but lives can’t,” he wrote. “Nature warning us again of the impact of #climatechange. We must all do more to combat this.”

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Re: Live Thread: Hurricane Irma Is Heading Towards The Gulf Of Mexico
« Reply #324 on: September 07, 2017, 02:15:17 pm »
“Homes can be rebuilt but lives can’t,” he wrote. “Nature warning us again of the impact of #climatechange. We must all do more to combat this.”

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