Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory

[thackney]

Harvey to Threaten Western Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane, Then Will Dump Flooding Rain in Texas, Louisiana
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-harvey-gulf-of-mexico-forecast
Aug 23 2017 08:15 AM EDT

The remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Harvey will become a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and will bring dangerous flooding rain to areas near the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast into the weekend or early next week.

Right now, clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are becoming more organized, and at least a tropical depression appears to be forming....

[thackney]

...Therefore, if Harvey stalls for a period of a few days, it has the potential for producing prolific rainfall, capable of major flash flooding.

It is too soon to determine the areas of heaviest rain. That will depend on Harvey's exact path, locations of rainbands, and how long it stalls. ...

[thackney]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harvey-to-threaten-texas-with-major-flooding-to-end-the-week/70002520

[Ghost Bear]

While I'm hoping we get some rain out of this, I'm also hoping that it doesn't stall out and dump so much rain that it causes major flooding...   

[austingirl]

While I'm hoping we get some rain out of this, I'm also hoping that it doesn't stall out and dump so much rain that it causes major flooding...   

Same here!

[AllThatJazzZ]

I do NOT like the looks of this.

[Bigun]

While I'm hoping we get some rain out of this, I'm also hoping that it doesn't stall out and dump so much rain that it causes major flooding...   

You and me both!

[corbe]

   We need the rain bad but the Guadalupe/Comal basin here is prone to major flooding if it were to stall out here.  I'm pretty high up here, 978 as opposed to -6 in my previous residence (nawlins) but I've seen major flood damage 2 blocks away many times since I moved here in 91.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

While I'm hoping we get some rain out of this, I'm also hoping that it doesn't stall out and dump so much rain that it causes major flooding...   

Well, I need my stock tanks full, so let it rain.

[Idiot]

Harvey to Threaten Western Gulf Coast as a Tropical Storm or Hurricane, Then Will Dump Flooding Rain in Texas, Louisiana
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-harvey-gulf-of-mexico-forecast
Aug 23 2017 08:15 AM EDT

The remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Harvey will become a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and will bring dangerous flooding rain to areas near the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast into the weekend or early next week.

Right now, clusters of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are becoming more organized, and at least a tropical depression appears to be forming....

Better start laying out your inflatable dam.   ^-^

[Elderberry]

I'm afraid that with the position of those two highs, Harvey could stall out on top of us like Allison and Claudette did. I remember with Claudette, the high was northeast of us. Claudette hit us three times bouncing against that high before it finally left the area.

[AllThatJazzZ]

I'm afraid that with the position of those two highs, Harvey could stall out on top of us like Allison and Claudette did. I remember with Claudette, the high was northeast of us. Claudette hit us three times bouncing against that high before it finally left the area.

The folks in Meyerland are holding their breath. Where I live, it's highly unlikely that my home will flood, but I won't be able to leave the house because of the street flooding. I hope it doesn't live up to the projected possibilities, but having been through enough of them to understand their effects, I'm getting prepared for five days of rain. 

[Smokin Joe]

I do NOT like the looks of this.

Me neither, and I am about as far from a coast as you can get.
Y'all stay safe down there.

[thackney]

[Elderberry]

The folks in Meyerland are holding their breath. Where I live, it's highly unlikely that my home will flood, but I won't be able to leave the house because of the street flooding. I hope it doesn't live up to the projected possibilities, but having been through enough of them to understand their effects, I'm getting prepared for five days of rain.

Has the Braes Bayou widening project(Project Brays) completed? So many flood prone areas. I'm over by Hobby, south of Sims Bayou. I've been in my home 31 yrs now. Never flooded, so far. Been flood locked in many times though.

[mystery-ak]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 23.8 North,
longitude 93.0 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). A track toward the northwest or
north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next
48 hours.  On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the southern
Texas coast on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve aircraft reports that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the
Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period
Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9
inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/240855.shtml

[catfish1957]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A

Looking at the radar, this suckers is strengthening rapidly.  South Texas Briefers, I'd be preparing rapidly for a possible Cat 2 or 3 storm.  Still forecasted as a 1 but this trend is alarming, and I think the models are understating this. (Though I do think the GFS has it as a 3)  Hellacious rains are going to slam the rest of us, who are near the coast.  Last storm was Ike, 9 years ago, and we are out of practice dealing with this.

NHS already stating expecting 25 inches in some spots.  Yikes.

[Oceander]

Stay safe people!!

[catfish1957]

Looking at the radar, this suckers is strengthening rapidly.  South Texas Briefers, I'd be preparing rapidly for a possible Cat 2 or 3 storm.  Still forecasted as a 1 but this trend is alarming, and I think the models are understating this. (Though I do think the GFS has it as a 3)  Hellacious rains are going to slam the rest of us, who are near the coast.  Last storm was Ike, 8 years ago, and we are out of practice dealing with this.

NHS already stating expecting 25 inches in some spots.  Yikes.  Also, the relatively reliable HWRF Model has it as a near Cat 3 storm -952 mb , winds to 110 mph

[Elderberry]

@mystery-ak

Just my thoughts. Why don't we just keep one ongoing Harvey thread?

[mystery-ak]

@mystery-ak

Just my thoughts. Why don't we just keep one ongoing Harvey thread?

Okay done...it's in the header

[Ghost Bear]

Since this seems to now be the "official" one, bookmarking.   

[Elderberry]

Note: Another thread now above the line.

Texas: Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory 

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,278279.0.html

@mystery-ak

[catfish1957]

URGENT



Harvey, now forecasted to make landfall as major hurricane.  To add to injury notice that the storm is forecasted to be within a 100 or so miles of itself for 4-5 days.  Precip projections may be historical.

[Hoodat]

Harvey gains momentum, could be bigger hurricane threatening one-third of US refining capacity

Patti Domm     |     Published 18 Hours Ago     |     Updated 5 Mins Ago

The energy industry is closely watching a developing storm that could become the first hurricane to make landfall in Texas in nine years and dump as much as two feet of rain on the heart of the U.S. refining industry.

A hurricane warning was issued for a section of Texas' Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Harvey approaches. The warning, issued Thursday morning, covers an area from Port Mansfield to Matagorda and a later update showed a potentially stronger storm.

If Harvey becomes a hurricane, as expected, it would be the first to come ashore in Texas since Hurricane Ike in 2008. So far a tropical storm, Harvey was heading towards the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Yucatan Peninsula ,and the National Hurricane Center upgraded its wind forecast to show Harvey as a possible Category 3 hurricane.

Sustained winds could be up to 115 mph, and there are forecasts for 12 to 20 inches of rain with some areas potentially seeing as much as 30 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.

By early Thursday, Harvey was about 370 miles (600 km) southeast of Port Mansfield, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Nearly half of U.S. refining capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas, and nearly one-third of U.S. capacity appears to be in Harvey's path on the Texas and western Louisiana coastlines. Even if the storm does not become a major hurricane, it could be a considerable flooding event that would disrupt refining and possibly drilling operations.

"The main danger with this storm does not seem to be wind, it is the amount of rain and it looks set to stall over the Texas coast," said Jacob Meisel, Bespoke Weather Services' chief weather analyst. "This is something we're watching even for onshore [drilling]."

Harvey could be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma came ashore in Florida in August, 2005.

The National Hurricane Center said Harvey was close to becoming a hurricane. It issued a storm surge warning for much of the Texas coast, and said surge flooding could reach heights of six to 10 feet between the northern entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent, Texas.

"It has a straight shot at the coast with nothing but fuel to strengthen," said Meisel.  .  .  .


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/tropical-storm-harvey-springs-back-life-now-threatens-one-third-of-u-s-refining-capacity.html?recirc=taboolainternal


Here in Corpus Christi, they are predicting a 6-ft storm surge.