Trump is ‘odds-on favorite to win re-election’ says political analyst

[truth_seeker]

Trump is ‘odds-on favorite to win re-election’ says political analyst

By Jennifer Harper

President Trump could win the White House again in 2020 — which likely would send hostile political operatives and the disapproving news media into an epic meltdown. News flash: Get ready. Mr. Trump will likely win re-election, says one analyst.

“President Trump did not ascend to the White House in the usual way; he broke with traditional campaign orthodoxy and tactics,” Ford O’Connell, a political analyst and adjunct professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management, tells Inside the Beltway.

“While Trump’s first six months in the White House have been marked by early stumbles, a healthy dose of palace intrigue and low approval numbers, history says Trump is in fact the odds-on favorite to win re-election in 2020, should he choose to run. Why? Because presidential incumbency has its privileges. Since 1900, 20 presidents have sought re-election. Of those, 15 won and five lost — that is, if you include Gerald Ford, who was never elected in the first place.”

Adds Mr. O’Connell, “So how does President Trump avoid becoming the sixth president to be fired by the people in the last 120 years? Barring some unforeseen calamity or Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, the fate of Trump’s presidency will live and die with the state of the economy in the fall of 2020.

“To ensure that the electoral winds are favorable to Trump, his administration must deliver results by passing tax reform before the 2018 midterms, showing significant progress on other key campaign promises: securing America’s borders, infrastructure, trade, conservative judicial appointees. He must also continue to instill in working-class voters in both the Rust Belt (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin) and Sun Belt (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona) battleground states the belief that he is tirelessly fighting for them. If Trump does that, voters will forgive his impetuous ways and rehire him,” the professor concludes.

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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/31/inside-the-beltway-trump-is-odds-on-favorite-to-wi/

[truth_seeker]

Win the same states, get the same results

[edpc]

I'm still convinced he doesn't run again.

[Chosen Daughter]

Pretty premature.

[libertybele]

The election of 2016 demonstrated just how wrong the polls and analysts were.  Trump has been President for 7 short months, making a prediction that he will win re-election is ridiculous; and it's a no brainer, he has a 50-50 chance of being right.  Big deal!

[dfwgator]

If the economy is good, he'll win....if not, he'll lose.

Everything else is just noise.

[INVAR]

Talk about FAKE and manufactured News.

[DB]

What are the odds he'll even complete his first term?

[Chosen Daughter]

Talk about FAKE and manufactured News.

Yeah where are the Trump supporters to cry fake news?  Ridiculous story.

[TomSea]

The economy and tax reform by 2018 are necessary.

[Applewood]

Analyses by so-called pundits are about as reliable as polls. 

[LMAO]

If the economy is good, he'll win....if not, he'll lose.

Everything else is just noise.

The economy wasn't very good in 2012 and BHO won re election.

I do believe Trump may very well win re election. The Democrats will never give up their identity politics because they can't. They are a prisoner of their left wing base

[cato potatoe]

Trump is sitting at 39% in Rasmussen, which is confirmed by other surveys.  That would take another historically weak challenger, and probably a third party leftist to overcome.  Also, his numbers are closer to even with regard to the economy, but it has been more than eight years since the last recession ended.  The 90s expansion was the longest on record - exactly ten years.  We are due.

[dfwgator]

The economy wasn't very good in 2012 and BHO won re election.

 

Look who he ran against.

[Oceander]

If the economy is good, he'll win....if not, he'll lose.

Everything else is just noise.

[corbe]

[dfwgator]

I will say this.

It will be tougher for Trump to get the Republican nomination, than it would be to beat the Democrat in the General, especially if the Democratic Party keeps insisting on going even further to the Left.

[ABX]

The economy wasn't very good in 2012 and BHO won re election.

I do believe Trump may very well win re election. The Democrats will never give up their identity politics because they can't. They are a prisoner of their left wing base

The economy was artifically good in 2012, with the Fed keeping interest rates too low, holding 4 trillion in bonds to prop up the stock market, and reporting modified U6 numbers for unemployment to make it appear far lower than reality.

So far none of these policies have changed, we are just ignoring it because of the R behind the name.

[Oceander]

I will say this.

It will be tougher for Trump to get the Republican nomination, than it would be to beat the Democrat in the General, especially if the Democratic Party keeps insisting on going even further to the Left.

Hopefully Trump will do the right thing and not run for a second term.  But then, he's never done the right thing most of his life, so I don't expect him to start now.

[jmyrlefuller]

Well, duh. Incumbency does that.

Consider the past 100 years:

Wilson - re-elected
Harding - died in office
Coolidge - re-elected*
Hoover - voted out
Roosevelt - re-elected three times, died in office
Truman - re-elected*
Eisenhower - re-elected
Kennedy - died in office
LBJ - re-elected*
Nixon - re-elected
Ford - voted out (note that Ford was never elected President or VP)
Carter - voted out
Reagan - re-elected
Bush - voted out
Clinton - re-elected
Bush's son - re-elected
Obama - re-elected

In the 17 elections that an incumbent has been on the ballot, only four times has the incumbent lost. So on history alone, Trump's odds are roughly three-to-one in his favor.

Besides, the Democrats are scrambling right now and so-called conservatives are too cowardly to challenge a sitting Republican.

[mystery-ak]

Three and a half years...anything can happen. just look at the last 6mos.

[jmyrlefuller]

Three and a half years...anything can happen. just look at the last 6mos.

Heck, think of how much 9/11 changed the trajectory of George W. Bush's Presidency. He isn't remembered much for the things he did during those first eight months in office. We haven't reached that date on the calendar yet.

[edpc]

Heck, think of how much 9/11 changed the trajectory of George W. Bush's Presidency. He isn't remembered much for the things he did during those first eight months in office. We haven't reached that date on the calendar yet.

Yes - and here we are again with a president who defeated an opponent with ties to the previous two term administration in a controversial (though constitutional) way and is viewed by the MSM as inarticulate and inept.  How's that for deja vu?

[Cripplecreek]

I'm still convinced he doesn't run again.

I'm with you.

And then he'll return to openly being democrat and his fans will pretend they never supported him.

[truth_seeker]

I will say this.

It will be tougher for Trump to get the Republican nomination, than it would be to beat the Democrat in the General, especially if the Democratic Party keeps insisting on going even further to the Left.

When they ran, when did the incumbent President fail to get the nomination?

Trump's supporters like what he has done. His detractors are mostly on the left, and wouldn't vote for ANY Republican.