Author Topic: Trump Effect: ADP Employment Surges Near Most In 6 Years On Record Goods-Producing Job Gains  (Read 2691 times)

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Offline LonestarDream

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Following January's surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February's ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the 'Trump Effect' is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries.

Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-08/trump-effect-adp-employment-surges-near-most-6-years-record-goods-producing-job-gain
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 04:19:28 pm by LonestarDream »
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Offline libertybele

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Amazing ... I wonder though how the left is going to spin this and take credit.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline LonestarDream

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Five sigma means an anomaly like this could only happen by chance   0.023% of the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma


What is going on here?

Well THE LIBERAL Mark Zandi admits:

"Confidence is playing a large role," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively."


March rate-hike odds were 98% going into ADP and we suspect it will uptick from here.

“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”


@DiogenesLamp
@thackney
@Smokin Joe
@don-o

I am including Smokin and Thackney in case they want to comment on the Five Sigma element.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 04:28:50 pm by LonestarDream »
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Offline LonestarDream

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And I forgot, more winning!!!! MAGA!
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Offline LonestarDream

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I guess good news is too boring for the board.

Amazing ... I wonder though how the left is going to spin this and take credit.
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Offline XenaLee

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Five sigma means an anomaly like this could only happen by chance   0.023% of the time.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma


What is going on here?

Well THE LIBERAL Mark Zandi admits:

"Confidence is playing a large role," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively."


March rate-hike odds were 98% going into ADP and we suspect it will uptick from here.

“February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Gains were driven by a surge in the goods sector, while we also saw the information industry experience a notable increase.”


@DiogenesLamp
@thackney
@Smokin Joe
@don-o

I am including Smokin and Thackney in case they want to comment on the Five Sigma element.

I think a lot of that confidence in business is due to the expectation that the GOP will repeal ObamaCare.  Boy are they in for a nasty surprise/letdown.
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Offline LonestarDream

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I think a lot of that confidence in business is due to the expectation that the GOP will repeal ObamaCare.  Boy are they in for a nasty surprise/letdown.

Sure repeal only would make us feel better.  But I could even go for the Ryan bill , if mandates were removed and competition across state lines were facilitated by regulatory changes-- the way P&C and life insurance are currently sold by Insurance companies across state lines.

Term life insurance is a brutally competitive marketplace ( If you are the product designer  :whistle:
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 04:57:47 pm by LonestarDream »
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Offline skeeter

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I guess good news is too boring for the board.

It would do the credibility of certain constant Trump critics if they'd show up on threads like this expressing a little optimism.

Offline LonestarDream

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It would do the credibility of certain constant Trump critics if they'd show up on threads like this expressing a little optimism.

@XenaLee  is right as usual (even when she is wrong she is right!!  )  .  We need to focus on getting the move aggressive ObamaCare unwinding possible to Trump's desk.


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Offline XenaLee

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Sure repeal only would make us feel better.  But I could even go for the Ryan bill , if mandates were removed and competition across state lines were facilitated by regulatory changes-- the way P&C and life insurance are currently sold by Insurance companies across state lines.

Term life insurance is a brutally competitive marketplace ( If you are the product designer  :whistle:)

At the risk of sounding like a heartless conservative (lolol).... removing the mandates isn't the only thing that needs to be changed.  Removing the subsidies is also necessary.  Forcing healthy young workers to pay for the quality healthcare of the unhealthy or of older Americans is ..... quite frankly, un-American.  If you can't afford to pay for your own healthcare, you should be on Medicaid.... not Medicare, and not any other better-quality healthcare plan.

The leftists claim that quality healthcare is a right, but it's not.  Especially if/when you are an individual that has abused your health your entire life, and only when facing the end results of your 'life choices' do you then require coverage and care for your illness.  Case in point.... there was a guy (20 something at the time) that was written up by the HoustonPress back in the 80s.  He had never held a job, had gone to college for a year or two, got hooked on drugs, and became a permanent "disability" case... living off of taxpayers to the tune of $700 a month with free room and board (a former Charlie Club location turned into Liberty Island).   Now this guy CHOSE to get hooked on drugs.  It wasn't an illness that he got due to happenstance.... yet he got to live 'free' off of others for the rest of his miserable life.... and in a manner a lot better off than many folks that did NOT choose to get on drugs and that did hold down a job and work for a living and hope for a better future that they never got.  That's not just unfair, it's heinous, in my book.  It is the very definition of the leftists' ssdd of 'rewarding bad behavior'.
 
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 05:10:49 pm by XenaLee »
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Offline LonestarDream

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The twin insurance problems of 'moral hazard' and 'adverse selection'.  I say end this stuff as fast as possible.  Wean people off.  Avoid a  backlash that says 'Single Payer'.

At the risk of sounding like a heartless conservative (lolol).... removing the mandates isn't the only thing that needs to be changed.  Removing the subsidies is also necessary.  Forcing healthy young workers to pay for the quality healthcare of the unhealthy or of older Americans is ..... quite frankly, un-American.  If you can't afford to pay for your own healthcare, you should be on Medicaid.... not Medicare, and not any other better-quality healthcare plan.

The leftists claim that quality healthcare is a right, but it's not.  Especially if/when you are an individual that has abused your health your entire life, and only when facing the end results of your 'life choices' do you then require coverage and care for your illness.  Case in point.... there was a guy (20 something at the time) that was written up by the HoustonPress back in the 80s.  He had never held a job, had gone to college for a year or two, got hooked on drugs, and became a permanent "disability" case... living off of taxpayers to the tune of $700 a month with free room and board (a former Charlie Club location turned into Liberty Island).   Now this guy CHOSE to get hooked on drugs.  It wasn't an illness that he got due to happenstance.... yet he got to live 'free' off of others for the rest of his miserable life.... and in a manner a lot better off than many folks that did NOT choose to get on drugs and that did hold down a job and work for a living and hope for a better future that they never got.  That's not just unfair, it's heinous, in my book.  It is the very definition of the leftists' ssdd of 'rewarding bad behavior'.
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Offline XenaLee

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@XenaLee  is right as usual (even when she is wrong she is right!!  )  .  We need to focus on getting the move aggressive ObamaCare unwinding possible to Trump's desk.

After reading the explanation of what a can of worms ObamaCare and repealing it in its entirety would be (courtesy of Conservative Tree House)... I don't have much optimism, I'm afraid.   It is something the left deliberately embedded and saddled us with in such a way that it can't be saved, fixed OR repealed effectively.  It's a clusterfuk that they deliberately inflicted upon America, and as such, they should all be marched to the gallows for that one deed alone.  But that's just me...lol.
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline LonestarDream

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After reading the explanation of what a can of worms ObamaCare and repealing it in its entirety would be (courtesy of Conservative Tree House)... I don't have much optimism, I'm afraid.   It is something the left deliberately embedded and saddled us with in such a way that it can't be saved, fixed OR repealed effectively.  It's a clusterfuk that they deliberately inflicted upon America, and as such, they should all be marched to the gallows for that one deed alone.  But that's just me...lol.
Understand.  Insurance companies have to be told (Check, by Trump) that the exchanges are going to fail. And new policies need to be designed that have lower structural costs and use HSAs. 
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Offline XenaLee

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The twin insurance problems of 'moral hazard' and 'adverse selection'.  I say end this stuff as fast as possible.  Wean people off.  Avoid a  backlash that says 'Single Payer'.

It's ironic that the idiot left wants "single payer" for the peons (not for themselves, of course) whose sweat, hard work and efforts pay their rather cushy and substantial salaries.  US veterans are and have been on what constitutes "single payer" healthcare and it is, quite frankly, CRAP (to borrow Coulter's descriptive adjective).

Congress exempted themselves from the wonderful effects of ObamaCare...aka the ""Affordable"" Care Act, claiming that neither they nor their staff could afford it (we're talking three figure salaries and up here).  Yet these same aholes couldn't care LESS that most Americans, who do not make three-figure salaries, couldn't afford it either.  This ObamaCare travesty was just another leftist redistribution of wealth and embedded socialism (communism w/a smiley face) scheme and long-lusted after moist-dream.

I say focus on elimination of government jobs, government waste, fraud, etc., and use the money saved from that to help those that really do need the help by expanding Medicaid to include anyone that can't pay.  I would also use the money saved to up the care of all US veterans from what they have now, which isn't much. 

Instead.... the government aholes would no doubt take any money saved from eliminating fraud and waste and just spend it on more pork and feel-good programs.  So obviously, the problem really is the government aholes that think this way.  Right?  And they are embedded in every nook and cranny of US government now.


No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline XenaLee

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Understand.  Insurance companies have to be told (Check, by Trump) that the exchanges are going to fail. And new policies need to be designed that have lower structural costs and use HSAs.

This may sound controversial....but....

what if we pushed for health insurance ONLY for critical care or dire emergency (accidents, heart attacks, critical surgery, etc.)?  Why do or should people need a health insurance plan that covers routine doctor visits?   If everyone did NOT have that kind of insurance, doctors and clinics would be forced to lower their prices for these things so that people could afford them without having to have insurance, which is how it used to be and how it should have been all along.  It seems to me that the problem is too damned much insurance.  I know, I know....

dreaming again.   :laugh:
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You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline LonestarDream

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All for that.  Supposedly, the 'wellness' visits lower the overall risk pool for a group so as to not get obesity problems etc.  Never really convinced on the actuarial basis of this.

This may sound controversial....but....

what if we pushed for health insurance ONLY for critical care or dire emergency (accidents, heart attacks, critical surgery, etc.)?  Why do or should people need a health insurance plan that covers routine doctor visits?   If everyone did NOT have that kind of insurance, doctors and clinics would be forced to lower their prices for these things so that people could afford them without having to have insurance, which is how it used to be and how it should have been all along.  It seems to me that the problem is too damned much insurance.  I know, I know....

dreaming again.   :laugh:
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 05:40:57 pm by LonestarDream »
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Offline Emjay

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I think a lot of that confidence in business is due to the expectation that the GOP will repeal ObamaCare.  Boy are they in for a nasty surprise/letdown.

Obamacare was a real burden for business as well as people.  But I don't think we'll be let down.  The repeal of Obamacare is too popular...they may nibble around the edges for a while but it will get done.
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Offline XenaLee

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Obamacare was a real burden for business as well as people.  But I don't think we'll be let down.  The repeal of Obamacare is too popular...they may nibble around the edges for a while but it will get done.

I dunno.   Read this and then tell me if you still feel the same way....

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/03/07/why-obamacare-cannot-simply-be-repealed/#more-129661
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Offline don-o

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After reading the explanation of what a can of worms ObamaCare and repealing it in its entirety would be (courtesy of Conservative Tree House)... I don't have much optimism, I'm afraid.   It is something the left deliberately embedded and saddled us with in such a way that it can't be saved, fixed OR repealed effectively.  It's a clusterfuk that they deliberately inflicted upon America, and as such, they should all be marched to the gallows for that one deed alone.  But that's just me...lol.

I have stayed out of the conversations on this precisely because I agree with those thoughts. I can't really articulate, but it's something I feel in in my bones and just give in to despair and get ready for the single payer.

Offline Emjay

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@XenaLee  is right as usual (even when she is wrong she is right!!  )  .  We need to focus on getting the move aggressive ObamaCare unwinding possible to Trump's desk.

Amen.  @XenaLee is almost never wrong and if she is, she's still right.
Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain.

Offline LonestarDream

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I dunno.   Read this and then tell me if you still feel the same way....

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/03/07/why-obamacare-cannot-simply-be-repealed/#more-129661

 Option #1 –  We can do nothing – and allow ObamaCare to collapse on it’s own.  In the interim many Americans will be negatively impacted and the more vulnerable and needy will be worst hurt.  Premiums and co-pays continue to skyrocket while the insurance system tries to preserve itself.

♦ Option #2 – We can Repeal and Replace using the three-phase approach being proposed by Tom Price, Paul Ryan and Donald Trump:

    1. Pass reconciliation legislation targeting the financial mechanisms.
    2. HHS rewrites rules.
    3. New laws are proposed by a full congress to adjust ObamaCare and add to it, and laws debated/passed.


Yes, this has it’s risks.  No guarantee you’ll get the cookie you want in phase three.

♦ Option #3 –  Pass futile structural repeal bills in the House, and watch them pile up in the Senate without the ability to pass and earn 60 votes.   Shout and holler some more, gnash some teeth, and wait for 2018 when Republicans will attempt to win the other 8 seats needed.  Again, even less of a guarantee on the outcome.


Option 1, might lead to a backlash.  Not sure Option 3 ever passes.   

Option 2 is roughly what I am talking about this thread.  Optimism comes from the signalling to insurance companies that they will lose their shirts on obamacare type plans.  That, with the elimination of the mandates/competition would put us in a 'virtuous cycle'
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Offline LonestarDream

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I have stayed out of the conversations on this precisely because I agree with those thoughts. I can't really articulate, but it's something I feel in in my bones and just give in to despair and get ready for the single payer.

gotta be optimistic!  @don-o
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Offline Emjay

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After reading the explanation of what a can of worms ObamaCare and repealing it in its entirety would be (courtesy of Conservative Tree House)... I don't have much optimism, I'm afraid.   It is something the left deliberately embedded and saddled us with in such a way that it can't be saved, fixed OR repealed effectively.  It's a clusterfuk that they deliberately inflicted upon America, and as such, they should all be marched to the gallows for that one deed alone.  But that's just me...lol.

I hope you're wrong...just this once.  Obama has sapped the courage out of a lot of people and many of the reforms being considered make some people go, "but what if."

I heard some who sounded knowledgeable on Fox yesterday say the penalty for not buying insurance will be removed.  Yes, the occasional young motorcycle guy who refused to buy insurance will have an accident leaving him paralyzed and us with the bill.  But that is an anomaly compared to the benefit of not forcing young people to pay for insurance they're sure they don't need and not making me pay for pregnancy care.
Against stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain.

Offline XenaLee

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Amen.  @XenaLee is almost never wrong and if she is, she's still right.

Lolol!  It's getting deep in here!  (where are my boots?)
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

You can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.

Offline LonestarDream

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I hope you're wrong...just this once.  Obama has sapped the courage out of a lot of people and many of the reforms being considered make some people go, "but what if."

I heard some who sounded knowledgeable on Fox yesterday say the penalty for not buying insurance will be removed.  Yes, the occasional young motorcycle guy who refused to buy insurance will have an accident leaving him paralyzed and us with the bill.  But that is an anomaly compared to the benefit of not forcing young people to pay for insurance they're sure they don't need and not making me pay for pregnancy care.

Post of the DAY!!!
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