With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points

[HAPPY2BME]

Investors.com

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.



Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson saw his support held steady at 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein dipped to 3%.

Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.

Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/

[HAPPY2BME]

Hear that?

It is the gnashing of teeth and the weeping of neocons.

[ABX]

So going up against the absolute worst candidate....

..a candidate whose criminality is documented in her own words...

..a candidate who is so sick she can barely stand through a press conference or starts having coughing fits...

..a candidate whose own advisors say she is the most untrustworthy...

..a candidate whose resume reads like a college intern, with fewer accomplishments...

...and the Republican's put up a guy who can't even get out of the margin of error in his best polls, because he is just a mirror of her.....

Hillary represents the worst aspects of our government.
Trump represents the worst aspects of society.

Good job America!

[sinkspur]

Outlier.

The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12. 

And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.

So there's that.

[Norm Lenhart]

Outlier.

The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12. 

And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.

So there's that.

Pretty pathetic that one has to hang their hopes on an OUTLIER poll that shows TWO WHOLE POINTS for a victory by their candidate.

[mystery-ak]

 IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.

btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.


Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.


So that is what I feel is the most accurate.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

[Victoria33]

IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.  btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..

Trump the dictator may win, I don't trust polls at this date. 

[Oceander]

Y'all do realize that what matters is the electoral college, not the popular vote.  Remember 2000?  Or 1824, 1876, or 1888?  I have yet to see any electoral college forecasts that do not show Trump getting Tromped by Clinton.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

PollyVote is an aggregator of poll aggregators:


http://pollyvote.com/en/


Comes to the same conclusion as RCP.


Funny that Trump isn't being blown out of the water. He's doing about as well as McCain did in 2008.


That being said, I think there's worst stuff on Trump out there. Still haven't seen the "n-word" video that is rumored to exist.

[Longmire]

 The LA Times Daily tracker shows it a dead heat... Trump +0.3

[HonestJohn]

Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.


Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.


So that is what I feel is the most accurate.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

This is my view.

[sinkspur]

IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.

btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..

Myst, it's the trend that matters, and IBD falls outside the trend.  So does Rasmussen. 

I'm betting the internals of both polls oversample Republicans. 

[Oceander]

The LA Times Daily tracker shows it a dead heat... Trump +0.3

But if it doesn't turn out that way, I'm sure that 1911 will express its outrage, won't it.

[sinkspur]

In fact, the ABC poll (which has Hillary up 12 points today) was closer in 2012 than  IBD:

[Luis Gonzalez]

Picking and choosing polls is not really accurate.


Poll aggregators are statistically and historically the most accurate. According to the RCP average, Hillary is leading Trump by 6 points.


So that is what I feel is the most accurate.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Most importantly, Trump can't win without Florida. and every poll since 10/4 has Clinto leading here by @ 4%.

WHICH SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE TRUMP MAY WIN THE NATIONAL VOTE BY A SLIGHT MARGIN AND LOSE THE ELECTION IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

That may set up a face-on challenge to the electoral college by Trump's populist movement.

[corbe]

   Even if this poll has any credibility, Trump needs at least 5~7% of a cushion to overcome the DNC Fraud, just ask Mitt (who I also didn't vote for). 

   I just don't see him making up those numbers, and that LA poll had him up 15% just 2 weeks ago. what's up with that??????

[Rivergirl]

He is winning in the alt/right universe.   

[Sanguine]

Hear that?

It is the gnashing of teeth and the weeping of neocons.

@HAPPY2BME, as you well know, many of us here and many people elsewhere, associate "neocon" with active anti-semitism*.  The fact that you continue to use that word here says to me that you are OK with being thought of that way by your fellow posters.  Is that your intent?


*And, do so with good reason.

[ABX]

It is important to remember, the closer you get to the election, the more accurate the polls will become. Next week's polls will start to be more reflective of what will happen.

[Cyber Liberty]

IBD/TIPP has been the most accurate in the last several elections....I would believe this poll over anything ABCNBCCBS puts out.

btw Rasmussen has it about the same so I don't think this is an outlier..

I saw it pointed out the other day the media owned polls are consistently showing Clinton with a lead, while the non-broadcast media polls like IBD and Rassmussen are showing ties and slight Trump leads.  This is in turn throwing the poll aggregators off, like RCP.  IMHO, they cannot be trusted now because the media-driven polls are so biased at this time.  They usually tighten up in the day or two before the vote (to rebuild cred, I suppose), but at this point the media polls are out there primarily to influence the vote, rather than measure it.

[Luis Gonzalez]

I saw it pointed out the other day the media owned polls are consistently showing Clinton with a lead, while the non-broadcast media polls like IBD and Rassmussen are showing ties and slight Trump leads.  This is in turn throwing the poll aggregators off, like RCP.  IMHO, they cannot be trusted now because the media-driven polls are so biased at this time.  They usually tighten up in the day or two before the vote (to rebuild cred, I suppose), but at this point the media polls are out there primarily to influence the vote, rather than measure it.

This year, either the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians will win the Pennant, and either Hillary or Trump the Presidency.

Every loser has its (year) day.

[sneakypete]

Outlier.

The ABC poll out this morning has Hillary up 12. 

And that those Republicans who plan to vote in two weeks is down 7 points.

So there's that.

@sinkspur

See the editorial I just posted about the Meet the Depressed Show this morning. You ain't going to like it.

[sneakypete]

Trump the dictator may win, I don't trust polls at this date.

@Victoria33

You mean "dictator" as oppossed to the Good and Gentle Queen Hillary?

[sneakypete]

Y'all do realize that what matters is the electoral college, not the popular vote.  Remember 2000?  Or 1824, 1876, or 1888?  I have yet to see any electoral college forecasts that do not show Trump getting Tromped by Clinton.

@Oceander

ABC convinced me to vote for Trump this morning.