How Not To Waste Your Vote: A Mathematical Analysis

[Lando Lincoln]

How Not To Waste Your Vote: A Mathematical Analysis
Stephen Weese
Foundation for Economic Education
August 2, 2016

During this especially contested election, a lot of people are talking about people “wasting” or “throwing away” votes. However, many people who say this do not have a complete grasp of the full mathematical picture – or worse, they are only mentioning the part that supports their position. First let’s define what a “wasted” vote is.

More-----> https://fee.org/articles/how-not-to-waste-your-vote-a-mathematical-analysis/

[Idaho_Cowboy]

Very interesting read. Thanks for posting.

[Suppressed]

How Not To Waste Your Vote: A Mathematical Analysis
Stephen Weese
Foundation for Economic Education
August 2, 2016

During this especially contested election, a lot of people are talking about people “wasting” or “throwing away” votes. However, many people who say this do not have a complete grasp of the full mathematical picture – or worse, they are only mentioning the part that supports their position. First let’s define what a “wasted” vote is.

More-----> https://fee.org/articles/how-not-to-waste-your-vote-a-mathematical-analysis/

Excellent article. 

Anyone seriously interested in politics and elections should read it.

I'd like to see his comments on the FPTP element of our hybrid voting system, and whether her thinks it should be replaced with preferential voting (whether RVS, range, Bucklin, etc.)

[ABX]

I'm surprised but this actually was pretty good. It goes along with my belief and study that if you are not in a battleground state, your vote is far more valuable to vote your conscience/values than you realize. It isn't just the numbers game (where one vote for a major party is lost in the millions, thus reducing significance), but that it can send a message to the party about population trends so they will try to follow that trend. For example, if the Republican party sees that this year, they lose 15% of their voters to the Constitution or Libertarian party, versus in the past that was 1%-2%, they will see a shift in population identity and will be more inclined to move towards that in order to make up for lost revenue and votes.

A political party works like a business and voters are the customers. Just like when people started demanding more healthy food, even though it was a small percentage of their overall sales at first, they recognized the trend and moved that direction and thus you now have healthier options on almost all fast food menus.

This is a greater long term impact than a 1 in 1,000,000 vote.

This also dispels the myth that not voting for A equals a vote for B. That is a mathematical and logical fallacy.

[Suppressed]

This also dispels the myth that not voting for A equals a vote for B. That is a mathematical and logical fallacy.

Yes, it does.

But I fear that simple mathematics is over the heads of many who claim that.

[NavyCanDo]

Great article.
For people like me who live in a solid Blue State (WA) that Hillary will win regardless of who the Republicans put up, I could write-in Cruz, Rubio, Bush, or even Bigfoot and it would change nothing.    It would not be a wasted vote and my conscience will be fine the next morning. Once I wake up from my drunken stupor from the night before of course. My wife and I  both plan on writing-in a candidate. Not Bigfoot though. He already said if elected he will not serve. Making too much money on those beef jerky ads.

We will vote Republican down the rest of the ballot.   Mistakes in the down ballot can be a wasted vote.


The above normally would apply for those living in a solid red state as well, but this election I don't think there is such an animal. Kinda like Bigfoot.

[ScottinVA]

I'm in a state that is trending hard to the democrats (Virginia), so it's coming to the point that my vote won't matter anyway -- even Hillary is so confident of victory here she's stopping running ads... meanwhile, Trump has yet to launch his first... so I'm casting my vote for Darrell Castle of the U.S. Constitution Party.

[NavyCanDo]

Voting one's conscience is never a waste.  If everyone else votes in a bum, then it is they who squandered their vote and betrayed their country.

True, but you know when Trump loses they will all put on their tinfoil hats and  hop aboard the "election was rigged" train with Trump. They will never accept that they squandered their vote be it in the primary or the general - but that their vote was stolen from them, and Trump really is the rightful president. They won't lose easily, and Trump is incapable of losing easily and gracefully.

[Lando Lincoln]

I wish we could save articles somewhere.

I tried doing just that but have let it fizzle.  It needs some housekeeping, file organization, etc. But:

The Repository

Anyone care to help??

A keyword bank would help immensely.

[LonestarDream]

Following the extremely close 2000 U.S. presidential election, some supporters of Democratic candidate Al Gore believe that one reason he lost the election to Republican George W. Bush is because a portion of the electorate (2.7%) voted for Ralph Nader of the Green Party, and exit polls indicated that more of these voters would have preferred Gore (45%) to Bush (27%), with the rest not voting in Nader’s absence.

This part of the article largely contradicts the rest of it, ESPECIALLY, since we do not know beforehand ( a priori) just how close our state will be. 

Yes, but for Nader, W does not win as FLA would have gone to Gore.  Pining to hear rampant reports of TBR members convincing their liberal friends to vote Jill Stein.   

This piece bothers me for another reason.  We have lost the popular vote on the freedom/liberty sphere all the way back to 1988!  With one exception, more on that in a minute.  And running up the score in CA for Gore DID make a difference in this regard. 
Losing the popular DID make W's presidency illegitimate with less of a perceived mandate.

If 911 did not happen, there would have not been a second term.

We have lost the popular vote in every election since 1988, because there was not a fighter on our side.   Ah, but what about 2004?

The SWIFT boat veterans for truth were the fighters in this election.  W did nothing to counter the bilge placed at his feet and his legacy/candidacy of his brother suffered accordingly.

@don-o