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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/why-trump-and-clinton-might-not-get-a-convention-bounce-225828#ixzz4FEXPdmd1by: Steven Shephard
CLEVELAND — Donald Trump's convention is over. But don't count on a convention bounce.
The sizable polling bump that typically follows four days of saturation media coverage probably isn't coming.
Hillary Clinton is also unlikely to receive much of a bounce after Democrats' gather next week in Philadelphia. The reason? Trump and Clinton are two of the most unpopular presidential nominees in recent electoral history, and voters' mostly negative feelings about both of them are well-formed. That lends a level of stability to the race and means neither candidate is likely to bound out of the next two weeks with additional momentum, according to pollsters.
Then there's the issue of party unity. Many top Republican officials still haven’t rallied to Trump’s side, and one, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, did not endorse the nominee in his nationally televised speech Wednesday night. Combine that with a series of other unforced errors, like Melania Trump's plagarized speech on Monday night.
All that division and controversy could undermine the chances of a Trump bump.
“George H.W. Bush isn’t here. George W. Bush isn’t here. John McCain isn’t here. Mitt Romney isn’t here,” Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster who advised Cruz’s presidential campaign, said here Tuesday at an event sponsored by The Atlantic magazine. “A lot of people say, ‘Does it matter?' It does matter if you don’t have unity coming out of the convention.”
Clinton, meanwhile, has been savaged by speaker after speaker here; voters tuning in across the country have heard chants of "Lock her up!" coming from the Republican faithful in the crowd.
There are a number of factors that make the 2016 election unique, but the most salient dynamic is the deep and persistent unpopularity of both Trump and Clinton. 60 percent, on average, view Trump unfavorably, compared to just 35 percent who have a favorable opinion. Clinton fares only slightly better: 40 percent favorable versus 56 percent unfavorable.
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