POLITICO delegate survey: Dump Trump lacks the votesThe presumptive nominee’s foes appear to be outnumbered on the panel they’d hoped would pave the way to a new nominee.
By Kyle Cheney 06/24/16 06:35 PM EDT
Republicans looking to dump Donald Trump at next month’s convention have passion, energy and a fierce sense that their party will suffer unless Trump is unseated. What they appear to lack, however, are the votes to make it happen.
POLITICO reached out to all 112 members of the committee that will write the rules of the national GOP convention. This is the panel that anti-Trump activists hope to jam a proposal through to free convention delegates to spurn Trump and select another candidate instead.
What emerged from the survey, though, is a portrait of a committee with little interest in the dump Trump crowd. In fact, most members may be eager to stop them.
“I support DJT 100%,” said Alabama rules committee member Laura Payne in an email. “I ran to support … Trump & to represent the voters of Alabama. It may or may not be an attempt, but the voters will prevail.”
"Trying to change the rules in mid-game because you don't like the outcome is tantamount to saying you are going to take your ball and go home because you are losing," said Christine Serrano-Glassner, a Rules Committee delegate from New Jersey. "I will be supporting our Nominee, Donald J. Trump."
It was a common sentiment. Among the 32 committee members who responded, 25 said they would fight efforts to stop Trump’s nomination. . Another 33 members of the panel have been previously on record as endorsing Trump or rejecting efforts to rip the nomination away from him at the convention.
That means at least half of the Rules Committee is publicly committed to helping Trump win the party’s nod at the convention, enough to defeat any insurgent proposal. In addition, of the 47 who haven’t publicly endorsed Trump and didn’t respond to a POLITICO inquiry, 33 hail from states and territories where Trump won the popular vote or local conventions.
Four indicated they were still deciding what they’d do about the proposals.
“I am not discussing my views in the press right now. Instead I am talking to other delegates listening to everyone’s arguments,” said Texas committee member Steve Munisteri. His view was echoed by Hawaii committee member Miriam Hellreich, as well as Missouri’s Harvey Tettlebaum and Pat Thomas.
In contrast, just two members of the rules committee have publicly said they would support stopping Trump’s nomination by changing party rules: Colorado’s Kendal Unruh and Guy Short.
Their allies are hopeful that their backers on the rules committee are simply remaining quiet, for now, amid intense pressure to back Trump’s nomination. More, they argue, will emerge as the convention nears, especially if Trump’s campaign continues to falter. They may be hesitant to reveal themselves in the meantime.
“They’re frightened to bring their names forward. They’re being threatened by their state party chairs,” said Eric Minor, a Washington State delegate who has become a point-person in the effort to block Trump’s nomination but is not on the convention rules committee.
Minor also noted that although supporters of unbinding delegates are pursuing a majority on the rules committee, there’s another more achievable path. Advocates for unbinding need just 28 rules committee members — a quarter of the panel — to send a “minority report” to the convention floor. It’s unclear whether backers of unbinding delegates can reach even that smaller threshold. But if they do, it would force the entire convention body — 2,472 delegates — to grapple with it. Insurgent delegates looking to stop Trump claim there are hundreds of like-minded allies who will be in the seats in Cleveland, even if they’re not on the rules committee. Minor added that in the run-up to the convention, as more anti-Trump delegates go public, others may be emboldened to follow suit.
For now, anti-Trump delegates are continuing to press for changes inside the Rules Committee. Unruh is leading the public effort to wrest the nomination from Trump by adding a “conscience clause” to party rules. That clause would permit any delegate to ignore the results of primaries and caucuses by citing a moral or personal objection to Trump.
Unruh, acknowledging the steep hill to prevail in the rules committee, said she still expects to be competitive in the broader fight.
“Even if it doesn’t make it through rules, so be it,” she said. “Then it’s a floor fight.”
On Friday morning, Unruh sent a letter to all members of the rules committee advocating for her proposal. On Sunday, she and her supporters will convene their third major conference call to discuss progress. The call is expected to include remarks from former New Hampshire Sen. Gordon Humphrey, an ally of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who joined the cause earlier this week.
Unruh added that at least three other rules committee members had signaled support for her proposal but wished to remain private for now. In the meantime, her allies on Friday launched a cable TV ad campaign to pressure other delegates to join the cause. Delegates in Virginia and Arizona have also filed suit to overturn state laws that require delegates to be bound to the results of their primaries and caucuses.
If a rules committee push fails, anti-Trump delegates say they don’t intend to quit, but it leaves them with the prospect of having to rally 1,237 delegates to back their efforts, a difficult order with just over three weeks until the convention and the Republican establishment working against them.
“I have not sensed any movement in favor of unbinding the delegates from actual rules committee members,” said Matt Hall, a committee member from Michigan. “I certainly intend to vote to keep the current rule binding delegates in place. Based on conversations I have had with members of our Michigan delegation, I am confident that a strong majority of them feel the same way about this issue.”
The rules committee, which includes two members from each U.S. state and territory, has long been viewed as the likeliest venue for a revolt among anti-Trump delegates. Though Trump won most Republican primaries and caucuses throughout the spring, his rival Ted Cruz severely bested Trump in the more activist-driven process of electing delegates to the national convention. That led to speculation that Trump could beat Cruz in the primaries only to see Cruz’s delegates snatch the nomination away from him at the convention.
But when Cruz dropped out of the race on May 4, most of his delegate-maneuvering ceased as well. That handed Trump a free pass to stuff the seats in Cleveland’s Quicken Loans Arena with supportive delegates. Though Cruz delegates — typically more conventionally conservative, tea party activists — will still be a force at the convention, they’re unlikely to control any major decisions.
“I think the effort is a lot of lightning but no rain,” New Hampshire Rules Committee member Steve Duprey said of the anti-Trump push.
Even some stalwart Cruz supporters on the rules committee aren’t eager to rewrite party rules to harm Trump. “Changing the nomination rules now for the Cleveland convention would be wrong and politically disastrous for our Republican Party,” said Morton Blackwell, a Virginia committee member.
Though there’s still an enormous amount of fervor behind the anti-Trump movement within the Republican Party, signs emerged in recent weeks to suggest Trump’s detractors would struggle to mount a concerted resistance at the convention. A constellation of stop-Trump groups formed — Unruh’s Free the Delegates, Delegate Revolt, Courageous Conservatives PAC, Delegates Unbound. But they have struggled to unite under a single umbrella. (Unruh held a conference call Friday with leaders of the other groups and emerged as the de facto head of the effort). And no prominent elected officials or donors have stepped in to professionalize the effort.
Until Thursday, when a complete list of Convention Rules Committee members was released by the Republican National Committee, none of the groups had been able to identify all 112 members. As a result, more than 20 of the rules committee members who responded told POLITICO they had never been contacted by Unruh or any other anti-Trump groups.
“I have not been contacted by anyone to undermine the rules as set or for any plans to unbind delegates,” said Eileen Grossman, a rules committee member from Rhode Island. “I happen to be a Trump Delegate but if I were not I still would have no part in taking the nomination from a man who has received more Republican primary votes in history. We are standing by the will of the people and their vote and their vote clearly was for Donald J. Trump and not a career politician.”
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has enjoyed the full backing of the RNC since Cruz left the race. It’s had access for weeks to lists of convention delegates and has begun building a team of more than 150 staff members and volunteers intended to work the convention floor, as well as the rules committee.
That will be an advantage for Trump if his detractors attempt a last-ditch end-run around the rules committee.
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